If Blackrock have, that may be why they've added; they wouldn't want to be looking for stock at the same time as everyone else. |
 I'm always hopeful red (as everyone knows) and we are expecting news (and have been for some time) but there may just be a reversion to fair value happening here as well.
CDMO companies on average should be "about" 5.5x sales for market cap.
For most of last year that should have been "about" 5.5 x c£90m which would have meant a share price of around £5 and for a lot of the early part of the year it was.
Then there was a sequence of unfortunate events - not least a big customer (Homology) basically exiting this business and leaving OXB with an impairment charge. The price dropped below thresholds / triggered market cap rules for US funds and it was horrible - whilst OXB remained fundamentally a very good business.
Now I would argue that OXB (like other specialist CDMO) is actually worth more than 5.5x sales, but that's not really too relevant atm (given where they found themselves).
We are coming up to the interims, where if Stuart and / or his replacement doesn't say 85%+ of £135m+ already booked in, then I will be very surprised.
£135m x 5.5 is around £7 per share and back in the FT250. We won't be the only people who have worked that one out. |
I'm not sure I actually like this: a healthy rise on the back of positive trading news is great, but this is unnerving! |
Will we break £4.00 today ????????? |
There's news coming here, I can smell it |
Quick counterpoint - think back to last year when the institutions (2 in particular) started selling (basically forced selling under their own fund rules).
2nd August last year 433p and 6 weeks later 244p. OXB said nothing.
By the end of November we were less than 170p and that was following a pretty astounding interims presentation of new work / new customers and IM selling us ABL at cost for shares printed at a huge premium to market price.
QED I wouldn't expect them to say anything about the share price moving up 10% as it's still well below what a smaller company with nothing like our current FY forecast was trading on prior to that August drop.
There are only a few (current) things which we all know well:-
None of the insiders bought after the results which for OXB suggests they couldn't.
When they stopped reporting new work wins they promised to regularly update a KPI table which they haven't.
They have told investors (via the IR email link) that they plan on some kind of quarterly update but haven't.
We know they have a commercial CAR-T deal for myeloma which is most likely to be for Jansen / J&J and if so would be a really big thing for OXB, but we have heard no detail since.
We know we have a signed framework with Serum and that they are lead contractor on the R21 malaria vaccine which is now finally in roll-out, but we don't know if that is what our MSA deal is for. It seems the most likely contender but we just don't know. Again that would be a big thing for OXB.
It could also literally be anything else, not forgetting that the richest listed company in Europe already owns 12% of OXB and has said that they intend to buy up speciality service companies to the pharma industry.
I strongly suspect that the last item there is what Blackrock have latched onto, because it's odds on free money for them in exchange for an unknown wait. |
that is exactly what I have been wondering- if we get into 410-450 territory I would suspect BOD will be under much scrutiny to start updating us all :) |
The BOD clearly have no wish to make any announcements at the present time. However they should now be considering their options if events (e.g. ~10% rise today or evidence of leak) result in formal request for rns. |
Breaking out |
CRISP / CAR-T synergy HTTps://crisprmedicinenews.com/news/crispr-enhances-car-t-cell-cancer-therapies/ |
:)
You know my thoughts on the eventual end of OXB for us as ordinary shareholders - and it isn't via bad news - it's some future point in time with Novo ringing around Serum, BlackRock, Vulpes, etc. and asking what it will cost.
Remember the last 2 business updates with OXB increased the forecast (e.g. 30+ to 35+ percent CAGR over the next 3 years) so it's really unlikely to be shock bad news. Something horrible and they would tell you with an RNS during the day. I have a feeling that the price rise on Friday was because the RNS for tomorrow morning has been signed off and submitted now, but I hope that system is much more secure than I'm hinting at. |
Harry,I'm sure we won't be the only ones checking in at 7am to see if we are going to be put out of our misery. |
Changes of Personnel at board level ? |
BMS chooses Car T over Bispecific in MM |
I would say it's either a coincidence or that they are up to something which some people have twigged.
They don't need money and if it was a fundraising the price would be going the other way.
Takeover brewing is really unlikely as we have some big holders who collectively own more than half.
Malaria is the obvious guess, but that has been hovering for so long now.
The CAR-T news they have already basically told us all but the names and the size.
Something else? |
Harry, is that a usual occurrence in your view :) |
OXB's website down too? |
... within 4 months |
Projections on this breakout are 480 then 600 ( give or take 10) |
Or (slightly more cynically) we are about to find out why none of the insiders could buy after the results but the boys in the market have already heard something. |
Last time the market was very kind here allowing everyone to get in around the time of the results and run with the upslope charting wise - this time they are leading the share price upwards prior to the release of any new information which means the nervous/less decided here will have to keep waiting until much may be baked into the share price Who said share trading was ever fair :)
nai etc |
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