FDA blasts Indian CDMO |
12,514 shares traded by 13:47 which is as close to nothing as doesn't matter.
Must be something to do with the whipped up vortex of anticipation. |
They need to release their promised quarterly results - with or without whatever else they might be waiting for.If they don't do that in the next 7 days then they will release quarterly figures in August and half year figures in September.It will not only make them look daft, but also their promises to make up for no routine contract win news with a regularly updated KPI table in line with cdmo industry norms.At the moment all we know of late is that Stuart is being replaced with no explanation, leaving us to come up with our own possibilities.When Frank gave us that little run of updates around the turn of the year I had great hopes it was an indication of his desire to keep us more informed. These days I think it more likely that was purely because of normal delays in France with the ABL deal and not a new normal. |
Agatha Christie detective level stuff...following this share until more is revealed :) |
'We are currently recruiting for a Talent Acquisition Specialist (UK and France) to join the Human Resources team, initially for a 12 month fixed term contract. The purpose of this role is to partner closely with assigned senior level stakeholders, acting as an advisor and taking ownership for the end-to-end recruitment lifecycle, from recruitment briefing meeting, advertising, sourcing, arranging interviews and making job offers, negotiating and agreeing final packages. The scope of recruitment will include from junior to director level roles.' (17 July 2024)
OXB's gearing up for something, not gearing down. |
Really smart chart !I'm guessing our secret customers must be within this universe?HTTps://x.com/yaireinhorn/status/1815446952395325528?s=19 |
 The pandemic was a mad time Phil. They dropped money on the UK public whilst drastically curtailing what it could be spent on and you can see a lot of it pouring into the stock market. I think it's probably fair to say that we saw it pour out too. With the benefit of hindsight then all the signs were there that the world had gone mad, but I'd seen notes for £21.50 and £24 based upon the mass vaccinations going on much longer which led me to hold on. As they say, it's important to not make the same mistake twice but I'm hoping that there won't be any more pandemics like that one to give me the opportunity.
Fortunately we seem to be almost back to normality now.
Our record year as you mention was £142.8m revenue in 2021 with the vast majority of that coming from exceptional pandemic work.
This year Stuart has guided £126m to £134m but it's still far from impossible that we could yet beat that record pandemic year revenue with non-pandemic work. Next year they will smash it for sure, but there's still time left this year.
An announcement would help ;) |
Makes sense Harry, I calculated that we also reached about x9 sales in Sept 2021 with £143ish revenue and £15 a share on 86m shares at the time. |
Thought for the day number 4,536.
Mentioned many times in the past about simple CDMO sector sales multiple valuations (much easier to value than drug discovery biotech as there are far fewer variables / future predictions to consider) and also the premium on top of that valuation if an approach comes.
This news story was in my feed last night and I thought it a good example:-
So, on the speciality side of CDMO - but not pure CGT like OXB - and taken out for 8x sales.
I still think that there is only one possible buyer for OXB and that they already own 12% and that Blackrock have noted the same speech. I also agree with what has been said in the past that pure CGT is worth much more than a simple CDMO sector average, but...
OXB on their market cap today of £341m is on a multiple of 2.5x guided sales this year. Less than half the industry sector average which includes people knocking out generics.
2025 sales should easily exceed £180m and better our best ever covid year without any of that exceptional vaccine revenue. |
I always look for the upside boadicea, but so many people have reminded me over the years (correctly) that if the volume isn't there to back up any price action then it's usually nothing significant.
If there are a load of big delayed trades posted later then fair enough, but at the moment I'd go with it just being one of those things. |
It's the bid that's pushing up the price, so they show as sells in advfn terms. Doesn't that indicate that it's institutional buying, not retail? |
Previously Blackrock had a combined holding of 5.03%.That holding has slipped to under 5% triggering a disclosure announcement.This is typical Blackrock who invariably tinker with their shareholding on the margin. |
It’s strange, they are buying? But going from a declarable position to a ‘below 5%’? Or I’m I reading that wrong. |
What a drag Blackrock has been and no doubt will continue to be on the price |
You raise a good point. Maybe, may be not. It would be good publicity. The AstraZeneca vaccine was priced at $5 a shot, we still made a fair chunk from that, but we’ll see. |
I'm afraid you will be in for disappointment like all other whipped up vortex of anticipation If the Serum deal means matching the four dollar per shot price OXB 's profit margin will be paper thin due to higher production costs hereIndeed as much more lucrative work appears on the horizon the decision of tying up so much capacity may be called into question OXB's future lies in organic growth which hopefully comes exponential in the future not not a whizz bang bolt from the blue |
It all feels like building to big news on Monday. |
Dated 15th July
"Today marks the official rollout of the new R21/Matrix-M™ malaria vaccine - co-developed by the University of Oxford and Serum Institute of India, leveraging Novavax’s Matrix-M™ adjuvant technology"
Two selected quotes below:-
"In total, 15 African countries are expected to introduce malaria vaccines with Gavi support in 2024, and countries plan to reach around 6.6 million children with the malaria vaccine in 2024 and 2025. Gavi and partners are working with more than 30 African countries that have expressed interest in introducing the malaria vaccine."
"In anticipation of the roll-out, the Serum Institute of India has manufactured 25 million doses of the vaccine and is committed to scaling up to 100 million doses annually. In keeping with its aim of delivering vaccines at scale and low cost, SII is offering the vaccine at less than $4 per dose. SII’s production capability means this highly effective and affordable, low-dose malaria vaccine can be manufactured at speed and scale, critical to stemming the spread of disease, as well as protecting the vaccinated."
I remain personally convinced (for what that's worth) that the OXB signed framework with Serum is to enable Serum to ramp up capacity for that additional 75m doses (per year) and also meet the WHO dictate that it can't all be manufactured in one territory.
What size of order OXB will get I don't know, but the capacity Serum have requested right of first refusal on at Oxford equates to a lot (and for 10 years).
This now seems to be moving at a quicker pace than at first seemed likely (given the number of international bureaucracies involved) so I'm now back to wondering if that was indeed the reason behind none of senior staff being able to buy after the results.
If they are keeping hold of Yarnton (by that I mean extending the lease which was up this year) then I would be even more certain that it's because they want the production suites and the 1,000 litre covid vaccine bioreactors at OxBox for this. |
Appreciate not a lot of enthusiasm at present, but the 30 min video from GeoVax mentioned yesterday (actually you only need to listen to the first bit and the last part as the other therapy mentioned isn't in our deal) is well worth the time.
Some big / good numbers there regarding the number of clinically vulnerable Americans, how well the first trial went vs mRNA standard, plus the amount of money the US government is chipping in compared to GeoVax market cap.
With the usual caution here that they are doing a proper trial with lots of people (as opposed to the politically expedited lip service trials during the pandemic) and that will take time, if the trial does succeed then that one contract for OXB will be worth a lot more than we paid for the whole of ABL Europe (in shares).
Near the end he talks about smallpox and monkey pox using the same vaccine base (same OXB/ABL deal) and notes that there isn't a US monkey pox supplier and how that is likely (if successful in trials) to be their first product to market.
As always the trials need to go well and the drugs need to get approved, but if they do that would be massive for all of us. If they don't we will still make some good money from the trial material. |
540K shares traded including some substantial trades. Is the sleeping OXB stirring after a long Winters hibernation? Tempus revelat omnia. |
I agree that they sneak up on you Sean and, a bit like buses, they often come in threes. However, I think we all understand now that the old OXB would announce a deal even if the client, deal value and indication were all confidential. That has slowly transitioned into what Seb told us in a recent presentation, which was that we are only going to announce "ordinary" contract wins now if the customer specifically wants it.
If you think about it then at the results in April 2023 we had 30 programmes with 18 clients. By April 2024 we had 51 programmes with 35 clients.
If my logic is correct here then that would have meant between 17 and 21 new work RNS releases. Unless I'm very much mistaken there was one:-
Yes they talked about some new client names at the interims and then mentioned one at the FY results, but no news release.
I'm expecting news when they tell us who the commercial myeloma partner is, what Serum actually have planned for the signed framework and so on, but for other news and particularly my hobby horse of why none of them bought at the results, I'm expecting something much more significant. What? Who knows. |
I have always found that OXB issues unexpected and pleasing RNSs when I amnot expecting it. So the best policy is to look away - watched kettle and all that. Trouble is it is becoming increasingly difficult to look away. |
It's just you if you want me to be honest. They have always had datasheets on the website which are basically the pdfs of the flyers which go to all of the shows.
I suspect it's a point where OXB can't win because if they didn't tell us they were updated / offer a look then someone else would say "and we don't even advertise / update our brochures".
I had a quick look at the datasheets, but of course I've seen many incarnations of most and I'm not in the market for OXB's services.
If you want an arbitrary example of how they can be useful for the interested shareholder then I would look at the LentiStable pdf.
LentiStable is a patented process improvement tech owned by OXB which gets offered to customers using our vectors, but is also just as useful to many other 3rd party / competing technologies. In other words the potential sales for LentiStable are much wider than OXB's customer base.
Orchard were launch customer almost 2 years ago now
Look at the wording on the latest datasheet:- "In demand - Multiple on-going PCL programmes (for pharma and biotech companies)".
Happy days. |
The Data/Fact sheets 16th of this month. To me it sounds like a local Rag ad for work.
I thought there was a serious "bottle neck" for vector delivery.
Why does OXB need to advertise for employment so amateurly. Is it just me, or is this slightly odd/worrying. |
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