Makes sense Harry, I calculated that we also reached about x9 sales in Sept 2021 with £143ish revenue and £15 a share on 86m shares at the time. |
 Thought for the day number 4,536.
Mentioned many times in the past about simple CDMO sector sales multiple valuations (much easier to value than drug discovery biotech as there are far fewer variables / future predictions to consider) and also the premium on top of that valuation if an approach comes.
This news story was in my feed last night and I thought it a good example:-
So, on the speciality side of CDMO - but not pure CGT like OXB - and taken out for 8x sales.
I still think that there is only one possible buyer for OXB and that they already own 12% and that Blackrock have noted the same speech. I also agree with what has been said in the past that pure CGT is worth much more than a simple CDMO sector average, but...
OXB on their market cap today of £341m is on a multiple of 2.5x guided sales this year. Less than half the industry sector average which includes people knocking out generics.
2025 sales should easily exceed £180m and better our best ever covid year without any of that exceptional vaccine revenue. |
I always look for the upside boadicea, but so many people have reminded me over the years (correctly) that if the volume isn't there to back up any price action then it's usually nothing significant.
If there are a load of big delayed trades posted later then fair enough, but at the moment I'd go with it just being one of those things. |
It's the bid that's pushing up the price, so they show as sells in advfn terms. Doesn't that indicate that it's institutional buying, not retail? |
Previously Blackrock had a combined holding of 5.03%.That holding has slipped to under 5% triggering a disclosure announcement.This is typical Blackrock who invariably tinker with their shareholding on the margin. |
It’s strange, they are buying? But going from a declarable position to a ‘below 5%’? Or I’m I reading that wrong. |
What a drag Blackrock has been and no doubt will continue to be on the price |
You raise a good point. Maybe, may be not. It would be good publicity. The AstraZeneca vaccine was priced at $5 a shot, we still made a fair chunk from that, but we’ll see. |
I'm afraid you will be in for disappointment like all other whipped up vortex of anticipation If the Serum deal means matching the four dollar per shot price OXB 's profit margin will be paper thin due to higher production costs hereIndeed as much more lucrative work appears on the horizon the decision of tying up so much capacity may be called into question OXB's future lies in organic growth which hopefully comes exponential in the future not not a whizz bang bolt from the blue |
It all feels like building to big news on Monday. |
Dated 15th July
"Today marks the official rollout of the new R21/Matrix-M™ malaria vaccine - co-developed by the University of Oxford and Serum Institute of India, leveraging Novavax’s Matrix-M™ adjuvant technology"
Two selected quotes below:-
"In total, 15 African countries are expected to introduce malaria vaccines with Gavi support in 2024, and countries plan to reach around 6.6 million children with the malaria vaccine in 2024 and 2025. Gavi and partners are working with more than 30 African countries that have expressed interest in introducing the malaria vaccine."
"In anticipation of the roll-out, the Serum Institute of India has manufactured 25 million doses of the vaccine and is committed to scaling up to 100 million doses annually. In keeping with its aim of delivering vaccines at scale and low cost, SII is offering the vaccine at less than $4 per dose. SII’s production capability means this highly effective and affordable, low-dose malaria vaccine can be manufactured at speed and scale, critical to stemming the spread of disease, as well as protecting the vaccinated."
I remain personally convinced (for what that's worth) that the OXB signed framework with Serum is to enable Serum to ramp up capacity for that additional 75m doses (per year) and also meet the WHO dictate that it can't all be manufactured in one territory.
What size of order OXB will get I don't know, but the capacity Serum have requested right of first refusal on at Oxford equates to a lot (and for 10 years).
This now seems to be moving at a quicker pace than at first seemed likely (given the number of international bureaucracies involved) so I'm now back to wondering if that was indeed the reason behind none of senior staff being able to buy after the results.
If they are keeping hold of Yarnton (by that I mean extending the lease which was up this year) then I would be even more certain that it's because they want the production suites and the 1,000 litre covid vaccine bioreactors at OxBox for this. |
Appreciate not a lot of enthusiasm at present, but the 30 min video from GeoVax mentioned yesterday (actually you only need to listen to the first bit and the last part as the other therapy mentioned isn't in our deal) is well worth the time.
Some big / good numbers there regarding the number of clinically vulnerable Americans, how well the first trial went vs mRNA standard, plus the amount of money the US government is chipping in compared to GeoVax market cap.
With the usual caution here that they are doing a proper trial with lots of people (as opposed to the politically expedited lip service trials during the pandemic) and that will take time, if the trial does succeed then that one contract for OXB will be worth a lot more than we paid for the whole of ABL Europe (in shares).
Near the end he talks about smallpox and monkey pox using the same vaccine base (same OXB/ABL deal) and notes that there isn't a US monkey pox supplier and how that is likely (if successful in trials) to be their first product to market.
As always the trials need to go well and the drugs need to get approved, but if they do that would be massive for all of us. If they don't we will still make some good money from the trial material. |
540K shares traded including some substantial trades. Is the sleeping OXB stirring after a long Winters hibernation? Tempus revelat omnia. |
I agree that they sneak up on you Sean and, a bit like buses, they often come in threes. However, I think we all understand now that the old OXB would announce a deal even if the client, deal value and indication were all confidential. That has slowly transitioned into what Seb told us in a recent presentation, which was that we are only going to announce "ordinary" contract wins now if the customer specifically wants it.
If you think about it then at the results in April 2023 we had 30 programmes with 18 clients. By April 2024 we had 51 programmes with 35 clients.
If my logic is correct here then that would have meant between 17 and 21 new work RNS releases. Unless I'm very much mistaken there was one:-
Yes they talked about some new client names at the interims and then mentioned one at the FY results, but no news release.
I'm expecting news when they tell us who the commercial myeloma partner is, what Serum actually have planned for the signed framework and so on, but for other news and particularly my hobby horse of why none of them bought at the results, I'm expecting something much more significant. What? Who knows. |
I have always found that OXB issues unexpected and pleasing RNSs when I amnot expecting it. So the best policy is to look away - watched kettle and all that. Trouble is it is becoming increasingly difficult to look away. |
It's just you if you want me to be honest. They have always had datasheets on the website which are basically the pdfs of the flyers which go to all of the shows.
I suspect it's a point where OXB can't win because if they didn't tell us they were updated / offer a look then someone else would say "and we don't even advertise / update our brochures".
I had a quick look at the datasheets, but of course I've seen many incarnations of most and I'm not in the market for OXB's services.
If you want an arbitrary example of how they can be useful for the interested shareholder then I would look at the LentiStable pdf.
LentiStable is a patented process improvement tech owned by OXB which gets offered to customers using our vectors, but is also just as useful to many other 3rd party / competing technologies. In other words the potential sales for LentiStable are much wider than OXB's customer base.
Orchard were launch customer almost 2 years ago now
Look at the wording on the latest datasheet:- "In demand - Multiple on-going PCL programmes (for pharma and biotech companies)".
Happy days. |
The Data/Fact sheets 16th of this month. To me it sounds like a local Rag ad for work.
I thought there was a serious "bottle neck" for vector delivery.
Why does OXB need to advertise for employment so amateurly. Is it just me, or is this slightly odd/worrying. |
Thanks fh, I was just updating my list after a quick check. That's it for now. |
GeoVax are presenting today.
ATLANTA, GA, July 16, 2024 – GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX), a biotechnology company developing immunotherapies and vaccines against cancers and infectious diseases, is pleased to announce that it has been invited to present at the next Emerging Growth Conference being held July 17-18, 2024. This live, interactive online event will give existing shareholders and the investment community the opportunity to interact with the Company’s Chairman and CEO, David Dodd, in real time.
If attendees are not able to join the event live on the day of the conference, an archived webcast will also be made available on EmergingGrowth.com and on the Emerging Growth YouTube Channel,
(I'll be looking on YouTube later).
Quick reminder from 6th March
"...the experienced CDMO ABL Europe (a subsidiary of Oxford Biomedica), the Company’s cGMP (current Good Manufacturing Procedures) manufacturing partner." |
Top find Harry |
A Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) is a designation given by the Food and Drug Administration to drug candidates intended to treat serious or life-threatening conditions under the 21st Century Cures Act. A RMAT designation allows for accelerated approval based surrogate or intermediate endpoints.
In one line a RMAT is an approved shortcut.
Just awarded to Kyverna's 101
Relevance to us? Again the vector and knowhow for this product, see |
Speaking of relaxed people, this guy is the boss of Arcellx.
The lead programme he talks about there (CART-ddBCMA) is the one where OXB supply the vector.
See
And
I only mention this because those 3 years of the initial agreement will be up by the end of this year. Maybe we will see an RNS for that and maybe it will simply remain hidden in the yet to be seen KPI table. |
He always seems very relaxed Cousin, which I think is just his style. I'm sure you are correct that Frank will naturally look to build a team which which reflects what he "knows" from his previous success and of course he has already recruited people to OXB who are known quantities to him from Rentschler Biopharma.
Last thing Stuart needs is a reference from me, but I think he has been a good CFO for OXB and an excellent, enthusiastic presenter from his early days (a time when OXB did struggle a bit with corporate presentations which were, if I'm honest, pretty unremarkable considering some of the things they were announcing).
I'm still of the opinion above, namely:-
The new CFO started work as a scientist and has that knowledge advantage.
The new CFO is extremely well qualified scientifically.
I'd bet another pound of Dom's money that she is fluent in French and German.
Finally, with the DEI/ESG/GKW obligations on all companies now it's quite helpful for Frank to have a woman in that position too. I'm sure that was not the primary reason but it's a very useful bonus. |
Have to say, not having met Stuart before, that he gave a very chilled vibe at the AGM.
Frank appeared a very different character. Clearly driven, very structured and precise in his language and (other than the few hints at humour) no real flourishes.
I can imagine that the make up of thew senior leadership team is more in the Frank image than that of Stuart (although that the chilled vibe may have been in the full knowledge that it was his last time to go through the AGM 'pantomime' with OXB!) |
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