 Thanks Sean, I'm at peace with my OXB holding and I'm pretty confident that anything important will come to us via the official route.
I try to keep a running update on here because we as a thread tend to get very impatient quite quickly. We had a brilliant presentation at the end of April. Those who went to the AGM at the end of June got told that everything was on track. OK the only RNS news of significance we have had since the results was IM paying us £17m for new shares, but if you think about it - full presentation end of April then informal update end of June - you can sort of forgive Frank for maybe thinking "well, the shareholders should all know the plan".
Keeping the running commentary is a reassuring thing for me (we should all know our shares) and sharing some of it on here costs me nothing, but it's also a bit of a mixed bag as everyone loves you in a bull market but in a dark period then it's often a less welcome view.
An example here would be the Homology purchase (more accurately the purchase of their GMP production facilities and the rights to their AAV vector). That went down like a lead balloon on here, but at the results 10 weeks ago, I'm sure we all noticed slide 11
So out of the 30 contracts OXB signed in 2023 (left of slide) 41% were AAV (right of slide). In other words it's now coming good for us in the bigger vector market.
Can you imagine what a difference that made to not only our reported figures but more importantly our prospects?
OXB have recently reaffirmed better than 35% annual growth over the next 3 years but it's 10 weeks ago now so...
I genuinely do expect big news soon. At the very least we are going to find out who the commercial multiple myeloma supply contract is for and what it is worth to us, but I'm quite confident for something bigger. |
For completeness I should point out that they also said....Also, in case you use Linkedin you may find it interesting to follow updates on the OXB profile here we post on various topics including scientific publications and industry news. https://www.linkedin.com/company/oxford-biomedica |
Yep, it almost certainly means that they are waiting for something to happen and would like one big announcement. Why they would want to do that I've no idea.
If they are doing proper quarterly reporting (and they didn't mention that at the results - only saying they would update the KPI table regularly) then they would have to wait for the auditors, so it may be to do with that - but if they are just planning on a "it's all going very well and here are the headline figures" mid term update, then couldn't they just add a note that those are unaudited figures?
I realise not everyone agrees with the reasoning, but it's extremely unusual for none of the senior staff to buy any during the post results open periods. Last time none of them bought then 6 months later came the ABL announcement. I would expect something significant soon with the mid-term update tagged onto it.
Almost certainly not a fundraising out of need as they turned the year with £100m+ and just got another £17m from IM. |
I too got the response from OXB that somebody else (sorry can't remember who) posted the other day...Yes, we have a commitment to putting out more regular updates. Our aim is to provide updates on a quarterly basis (including our regular full year and half year financial results). Since this is the first year of doing this we do not have a fixed routine of these yet, but we are aiming for the next one to be between now and September. In future you should expect these updates to be more predictable in timing.Sort of reassuring but can't help but feel 'the next one to be between now and September' is extremely ambiguous - in true OXB style! |
Sounds right Plutonian,
The three universities that make up the UK Respiratory Gene Therapy Consortium (GTC) have developed a gene transfer agent with great promise for the treatment of cystic fibrosis, which has been licensed to the pharmaceutical company Boehringer Ingelheim.
AlveoGene will take the same lentiviral vector technology and explore its application in other diseases, principally involving the lungs. Its first target will be alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) deficiency,
Preclinical work carried out with the GTC’s lentiviral vector
In its first year working on AAT deficiency Alveogene will continue to collaborate closely with the researchers in the GTC.
market size of approximately $6B by 2030
Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF)
AVG-004 uses the same proprietary lentiviral vector that is used for both AVG-001, AVG-002 and AVG-003 to deliver the relevant transgene to the lung.
AVG-001 for Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency (AATD)
market for AATD at circa $1Bn rising to $3Bn |
#8286 Because it almost always is "like a long tedious journey to nowhere". |
Summer holidays soon, so now news for a few weeks, here's hoping for a blockbuster Autumn. Some how. i very much doubt it. Although i have done relatively well out of OXB, why does it always feel like a long tedious journey to nowhere 555 |
I like that thinking Plutonian and will add it to the list as a very likely possibility.
"New gene therapy company created and funded by Oxford Science Enterprises, Harrington Discovery Institute and Old College Capital in partnership with six leading scientists from the world-renowned UK Respiratory Gene Therapy Consortium (GTC)
AlveoGene initially aims to leverage proprietary lentiviral gene therapy platform designed and developed by GTC specifically for inhaled delivery"
OXB in that GTC as you note.
"the UK Cystic Fibrosis Gene Therapy Consortium (GTC, consisting of researchers from Imperial College London and the Universities of Oxford and Edinburgh) and Oxford Biomedica (OXB)" |
Harry, as you may have guessed, I also have a list covering most of those names (and a few other possibilities).
AlveoGene is also on my list, with AVG-001 for Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency.
AlveoGene licensed the CF programme to Boehringer Ingelheim, but reserved all other indications for the same technology. I assumed this included the OXB lenitvector technology, but I may be overthinking. |
Mid price above bid / ask since that opening trade. |
I agree Dom. I think Cabaletta is a great partner for OXB and of course we had data last month (see posts 8072 / 8073). - so a lot of work but still quite early stage.
Back in April OXB told us we had 35 customers / partners and it's almost certainly more than that now.
You know already that I have many running lists based on OXB history, but it's only possible to guess at 20 names and some of those have been quiet for a long time - i.e. may no longer be current partners.
We have some fantastic named partners, but I'm always intrigued by the 15+ who want to remain anonymous. I think there will be some interesting names in there which will equate to a few nice surprises at some point, but regarding the 20 we more or less know:-
Arcellx = CAR-T multiple myeloma
AZ = Told contract left open - we don't know why / for what.
Beam Therapeutics = CAR-T (TALL/ T-LL) various leukaemia
Bioverative = Haemophilia. Company bought by Sanofi. Don't know.
BMS (Juno) = Many CAR-T / TCR-T lines - mostly secret.
Boehringer Ingelheim = Inhaled Lentivector for cystic fibrosis.
Cabaletta Bio = Autoimmune Disease (many)
CARGO Therapeutics = CAR-T various blood cancers
Coave Therapeutics = ALIGATER platform degenerative diseases (Old ABL)
GC Cell = Natural killer cells (cancer).
Geovax = Manufacture of MVA-based vaccines (Old ABL)
Immatics = Off the shelf T cell Engaging Receptors (TCER) multiple cancer
Immune Design = Therapeutic vaccines. Bought by Merck. Don’t know.
Kyverna = CAR-T autoimmune / neurology
Novartis = CAR-T / T-Charge blood cancer / autoimmune
Orchard Therapeutics = Inherited disorders in kids / launch customer for LentiStable.
RD-Biotech = Manufacturing services for their plasmid DNA (pDNA) tech (Old ABL)
Santen = Retinal diseases
Sardocor = Heart / Lung / Vascular disease
Serum = MSA signed for vaccine work / contract manufacture.
Quite a lot going on isn't there? |
It looks like with Cabaletta alone we are going to be very busy! We are certainly in the right place. |
Very interesting article in the FT today:-
Or if you don't subscribe
Worth a read. Regulars here will spot the names Novartis, BMS, Kyverna Therapeutics and Cabaletta as OXB partners.
Later on the magic words "With supply constraints limiting availability of the treatments".
Another piece of circumstantial evidence that after the horrible post-covid period OXB are now in a very good place - with the tech, the knowhow and the capacity in 3 territories. |
ST reports that Serum are starting malaria jabs in Africa They have manufactured 25 mil and have the capacity to produce 100 mil per year Anyone care to estimate what extra capacity they might need if any that might come OXB way ? |
It varies. If you are the market cap of the 325th biggest share or higher (so knock off the FTSE100 and it's like 225 or higher in the FTSE250) and you are not already in, then you bump those below out.
At the moment about £608m but last time we got into the FTSE250 it was over £700m.
£608m mkt cap and last RNS from OXB was 105,304,986 shares so £5.77 or better - but it depends on the day. |
what share price is it for ftse250 ? |
Thanks HST. 5800 shares sold and ISA'd. |
£6 by end of August would be better - you just have to squint a bit to see it. |
Chart looking good for a run to £4 level. |
If it's AJ Bell then they often use BATF on Cboe Europe Equities so you won't see it listed on ADVFN.
Type OXB into this thing
and look on one of the books (at the top).
Wouldn't 12k shares be too much money though? (20k limit). |
Technical question for those in the know. Do “Bed and ISA” trades show as “trades” or not?. I believe they are conducted at the mid price? My wife converted hers from her share fund into her ISA. Just under 12K shares transferred. Thanks in advance as no trades showing. |
I like that Mirabeau ;)
We need news from OXB and we all know it. By that I mean us on the thread know it, OXB know it and the market knows it.
I've banged on about this in the past but back when we had a handful of programmes then there were by necessity some very long waits between news. Not only that, but by nature of trial work, some of those long waits would eventually end in disappointment.
Sometime about now (and that's a vague "now") then OXB with 50+ programmes back in April, reaches a point where not only have so many of those gone through the very early stages that something positive for OXB should be very frequent, but the weight of number of programmes means that the trials which will fail will be covered by those which don't - i.e. enough work to beat the odds.
None of this is secret and all the analysts will know, but sometime soon there will be announcement (likely a big announcement) which will be the straw which breaks the camel's back, and by that I mean that sentiment will change from "former covid pandemic supplier with lots of early stage work" becomes "OXB who recently announced XYZ and already has 60 (or whatever the number is by then) other partnered programmes" - and then the tide comes back in again.
Maybe next week. |
This is teasingly on a potential breakout with the usual caveat that it may not be. No one is Nosferatu or was it Cosa Nostra or even Nostradamus? |
Highest closing price since 16th August last year on no news?
No big volume which goes against a market rumour / leak of news, but a good sign for tomorrow I think. |
An update on world's 1st CAR-T cell therapy for a child (teen) with lupus: "1 year after the treatment, I feel as good as I did before my diagnosis, except for a few colds." 15 yr old received CAR-T cells at Universitätsklinikum Erlangen in Germany in '23. |
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