Well today, 10th July was exactly mid point in number of days between April 29th (our last update) and Sept 20th 2024 (if they use the same date this year as last). |
 It's a funny old world isn't it?
3 years ago we had broker notes with £21.50 and £24 targets (admittedly on the assumption that we were going to make an AZ vaccine 24/7 for another year at least) and yet today, a company which is significantly bigger than the pre-covid company trades on a rough half of that pre-covid price.
£25 (Tuco's 50p post consolidation) was definitely on the horizon at that point.
105,304,986 shares would be £2.6bn mkt cap.
Regular CDMO (ignore that we are quite a bit more specialised and therefore more difficult to value) should trade on about 5.5x sales.
So, £479m in sales and they would justify at least that share price.
I think they are hoping to top £134m this year. Then £181m in '25 then £244m in '26 with better than 20% earnings which would be a record year for everything for us.
If OXB can keep the CAGR then 2028 and you will be there, but maybe you have seen my thoughts on this before?
If not, I think Novo are sat on more cash than they know what to do with and have stated that they intend to buy service companies in our industry. I think as soon as our earnings are such where an industry valuation + bid premium = something acceptable to our major shareholders then we are all gone and OXB becomes a Novo company.
In the interim this promised update would be nice ;) |
Thanks Harry, you could be right ;) Anyway I look forward to buying you a pint at Tuco's 50 pence party hopefully soon |
Closing volume today 123,546 which is only one small transposition error away from all the planets lining up. I think it's a sign. I'm not sure what of, but definitely a sign... |
Some of you might remember but back in April Phil found a link about OXB inheriting work via ABL for GeoVax.
Link out just now
They seem to be doing well.
Part relevant to us:-
"Vaccine Manufacturing Process Development
- Achieved an important milestone in manufacturing process development for Phase 3 and Commercial Production. This is an important step toward implementation of a validated chicken embryonic fibroblast (CEF) based production system for the companys MVA-based vaccines, with the release of the first lot of GEO-CM04S1 (next-generation COVID-19 vaccine) produced with a commercial manufacturing platform. This milestone marks the successful completion of the transfer and scale-up of manufacturing from the research-focused Center for Biomedicine & Genetics at City of Hope to Oxford Biomedica, the Companys cGMP (current Good Manufacturing Procedures) manufacturing partner.".
One of our undisclosed Phase 3 trials there then perhaps?
========
philh75 20 Apr '24 - 16:06 - 7567 of 8262
ABL /GeoVax which is of course OXBs manufacturing now: |
It's only days since they added c£17m to their cash pile and they have told us previously that this year they are roughly breakeven on operations. What they aren't breakeven on is capex and therefore the 10m euros (which IM are chipping in) to tailor ABL to OXB's needs + whatever OXB spend turning Boston into a LentiVector hub will mean a small overall loss - UNLESS - (drumroll) - something happens to change that.
Hopefully I've been clear in the past, but my point about the senior staff isn't that some of them decided not to buy - it's that all of them didn't - which strongly implies they couldn't - as normally (even in bad years) someone would fill an ISA or something.
As mentioned before on the thread - and with a reminder very recently - Stuart and Frank are both under a contractual obligation to buy in the open periods. This again reaffirms the logic to me that something was in the background during the results which meant the senior staff had market sensitive knowledge which wasn't yet public. |
Raw management figures for the year and half year are usually available internally to management within a week or so of the period end. This is when many companies choose to give an update with guidance towards the likely range of the final 'polished' figures which typically appear two to four months later. So the next week or so would be a logical option for an update on the contract and cash positions which must be known.
Failure to do so might spark more conjecture of the dog that didn't bark type (c.f. the directors that didn't buy). The management need strong positive reasons for withholding information from shareholders. Avoiding the possible inconvenience is not one of them. |
I suppose it's always a risk, but then it's a business built on risk (will drugs work, will the trials succeed, is something better in the works, etc.).
I'll not do the full speech again, but if the takeover on the cheap was ever on the cards then I think it would have happened by now (or at least have been tried). For all the reasons listed previously then I don't think that's a worry.
Moving the listing? OXB have flirted for ages with the possibility of a dual listing. We were told at the time (without using the exact words) that it was part of the decision in the 50:1 consolidation. For reference that's just over 6 years ago.
In the near term I think moving from FT Smallcap to FTSE250 is the only likely move for OXB ;)
The reply to Phil (about quasi-quarterly reporting) was unusually informative and for reasons I outlined in the posts I removed I think that because our gap between FY results and the interims is only 5 months, that has to be soon (very possibly this week). Hopefully it will be worth reading. |
Todays Times,business section.The chief executive of Oxford Nanopore has warned that Britain's most promising companies will be "snapped up" in takeovers or will move their listings to New York unless the new Labour government accelerates financial reforms begun under the Conservatives.Gordon Sanghera, 63, who has led the genetic sequencing company since it was spun out of Oxford University almost 20 years ago, said that while there was some "great stuff" happening with pension and stock exchange reforms designed to boost inflows into struggling UK stocks and shares..... |
25,000 shares in the first hour seems a bit more like it today. Will that continue or was it just orders placed over the weekend? I guess we will see. |
Wise words takeiteasy, but some of this has a long history - so the occasional skirmish separated by long periods periods of truce is actually normal.
Appreciate that my response here is a bit of a stuck record, but we are well overdue news now. We know for certain that we are due to double / have already doubled our number of commercial manufacturing contracts. I don't imagine that they plan to keep that customer confidential (or even think it's possible regarding manufacturing records / tracing for the approved drug), but for some reason the customer obviously wants it that way at present (perhaps not wanting to irk their current manufacturer until they have to?). Sooner or later they will tell us who and what - perhaps in the interim statement which Phil told us about the other day.
I outlined my logic for that being early July (i.e. this week) in my removed post, so you never know - could be an interesting week. |
Chill guys - this is one of the best boards by a mile on ADVFN...Harry you get a lot of love here...so ignore a few pokes in the ribs from time to time if that is how it feels...the stock is flat lining and we think it should be getting some buying interest and so it seems all rather odd atm.. |
I see at least you have the decency to remove a very crude post before many could read it |
Thanks Phil so in a nutshell we can expect 2 extra updates annually equidistant between Interims and finals |
Btw oxb did come back to me regarding update (replied 5th June)
Thank you for your email and interest in Oxford Biomedica.
We are aiming to put out updates on a quarterly basis, two of these would be our regular full and year and half year financial results (normally put out in April and September each year).
Since this is the first year of doing this we do not have a fixed schedule yet for the two other updates, but we are aiming for one of them to be between now and September. Once we have a full year’s ‘cycle’ completed you should expect these updates to be more predictable.
(So I would expect an update before August.) |
This is of interest
Cargo Therapeutics and Kyverna Therapeutics both recently named partners of OXB.
Every chance here that at least one of the others is an undisclosed partner too. |
Xoptimist,
Absolutely.
I'm eternal optimist and you are taking a more measured approach.
It's a little like when Frank was asked why he didn't put Phase 2 trials going the BLA route into his "partnered late stage column" and replied with words to the effect that it's because there is more risk at that stage and he prefers his corporate surprises to be nice ones. Can't really fault that approach either. |
wish I had followed the bot trader and topped up on 2/7 - too late now I guess:)
nai etc |
Thanks Harry. Given the strong share price performance of last 48 hours - and the signals from the technical chart this afternoon - it would seem that you may be more right than me about the timing of when OXB will hit the threshold for re-admittance to the FTSE250 (which I think we both agree is when OXB passes 590-600p per share or thereabouts). The nicest thing about this disagreement is that whether you are right or I am right we both agree that somewhere in the next 9 months a) OXB share price will be almost double what it has been for most of the past month and the highest it has been since April 2022 and b) OXB will be readmitted to the FTSE250 in the time period. If this is our only disagreement then its a very nice one to have. |
Xoptimist,
I don't think there's much (if anything) to argue with there, though myself I feel they could still get back into the FTSE250 this year if the ducks all line up.
If the long term (2026) turns out to be anything like RBC's forecast (which is on the conservative side with some of their weightings) then we are all golden anyway. What matters is nearer term, and that of course will be driven by news significant enough for it to be announced as it will affect the current guidance.
I've given my thoughts on what that might be (a few things we can guess at + an unknown number that we can't) probably too many times, so will be waiting for that news now. Hopefully soon. |
Correction: The chairman has purchased almost a quarter of a million shares in the past 28 months |
Register for real-time alerts, custom portfolio, and market movers
Hot Features
Premium
