Xoptimist,
Absolutely.
I'm eternal optimist and you are taking a more measured approach.
It's a little like when Frank was asked why he didn't put Phase 2 trials going the BLA route into his "partnered late stage column" and replied with words to the effect that it's because there is more risk at that stage and he prefers his corporate surprises to be nice ones. Can't really fault that approach either. |
wish I had followed the bot trader and topped up on 2/7 - too late now I guess:)
nai etc |
Thanks Harry. Given the strong share price performance of last 48 hours - and the signals from the technical chart this afternoon - it would seem that you may be more right than me about the timing of when OXB will hit the threshold for re-admittance to the FTSE250 (which I think we both agree is when OXB passes 590-600p per share or thereabouts). The nicest thing about this disagreement is that whether you are right or I am right we both agree that somewhere in the next 9 months a) OXB share price will be almost double what it has been for most of the past month and the highest it has been since April 2022 and b) OXB will be readmitted to the FTSE250 in the time period. If this is our only disagreement then its a very nice one to have. |
Xoptimist,
I don't think there's much (if anything) to argue with there, though myself I feel they could still get back into the FTSE250 this year if the ducks all line up.
If the long term (2026) turns out to be anything like RBC's forecast (which is on the conservative side with some of their weightings) then we are all golden anyway. What matters is nearer term, and that of course will be driven by news significant enough for it to be announced as it will affect the current guidance.
I've given my thoughts on what that might be (a few things we can guess at + an unknown number that we can't) probably too many times, so will be waiting for that news now. Hopefully soon. |
Correction: The chairman has purchased almost a quarter of a million shares in the past 28 months |
 I think the issue of directors buying shares in the open period is an interesting and useful topic and most likely an indicator of something important and value accretive happening in the company. Of course this is speculation but its educated and intelligent speculation - and no-one is being asked to accept it as fact or to act upon it.
The proposition as HST has set out several times is simple: In the previous open period in September 2023 at least 101,000 shares were purchased by the directors a third of which were bought by the Chairman (36,130 shares). Indeed our Chairman has been regularly buying shares in the open periods and has bought almost half a million shares in the past 28 months since March 2022 at an average price per share of 647p (so he is very under water). If our Chairman and our other board members believe the forward guidance presented by management in April - a 35% CAGR with revenues hitting a quarter of a billion pounds at the end of 2026 (in 29 months) and 45-50m pounds in editda - then you would expect at least some purchases in the open period when shares could have been bought at between 250p and 300p - and which would have continued to average down the price. We should also remember than both our CEO and our CFO are contractually obligated to buy shares to a certain percentage of their salaries. And if Frank is going to have to buy these shares I am sure he would have rather bought hem at 250-300p in April than at 400p or 500p later this year. (He did make his first purchase of 20000 shares in September 2023).
So its very odd that with such positive guidance in April no director jumped in to buy and I think it is intelligent speculation that there were in a restrictive period due to a deal.
At the end of the day this - or any deals being percolated and announced - give us something to speculate about as a sort of enjoyable hobby or past time - but don't amount to much in the long term. The value/share price of our company will be driven by fundamentals and principally by management delivering step by step - milestone by milestone - on their forward guidance and hopefully doing better than forecast by bringing in lucrative deals even if we dont get to hear much about them.
We had a great, optimistic and confident update in April which marked the start of the OXB turnaround/renaissance. If the update we are expecting in the next couple of weeks and the update we will get in mid September are similarly positive the share price will continue to rise robustly. And OXB will slowly erase its post covid negative hangover and restore investor confidence as we head closer to earnings. And the company will then be able once again to be valued on industry appropriate metrics. Whilst OXB doesn't have many, if any, direct comparables a 4-5x sales (with 105m shares) will deliver a valuation of 675-830p sometime next year
And then at some point in my opinion next year when the share price goes above 600p (probably, conservatively, after the April full year results presentation) we will be readmitted to the FTSE250 and with that a bunch of institutional activity. The challenge for OXB then will be the same as it is now - how to generate a steady flow of news tidbits to keep investor interest alive in an industry which increasingly binds us to secrecy and confidentiality. Frank and Co will need to fight that battle with our clients to give us some ability to generate news and celebrate our successes. |
I don't think the GE matters as much as it used to. When it was Thatcher vs Foot then there was a huge difference between the parties and him winning over her would have made a significant difference in almost every policy.
As someone pointed out recently (I forget which newspaper) on policy analysis and public spending the current Conservatives are actually to the left of Blairs '97 landslide Labour government on most issues. There is little to separate a big spending blue party from a big spending red party where most of the policies overlap anyway.
It will be interesting to see the result though.
======
takeiteasy 4 Jul '24 - 08:22 - 8235 of 8239
Perhaps the big lull here is linked to GE pause - perhaps when all the dust settles PIs may return to the LSE - been quite a while now of drifting around 3 quid... |
felt like a long hibernation here .... |
Looking frisky |
Looks like Pippa Radcliffe needs a new handbag.... |
No US buyers today I guess (US Holiday). |
Perhaps the big lull here is linked to GE pause - perhaps when all the dust settles PIs may return to the LSE - been quite a while now of drifting around 3 quid... |
Might be interesting HTTps://webinars.endpts.com/cdmos-critical-role-in-a-rapidly-evolving-biopharma-landscape/?source=pharma_newsletter |
I didn't mean to start a riot.
Yes there are lots of reasons for insiders not to buy shares. It's very unusual for all of them to abstain at one of their 2 normal opportunities in OXB though.
When this happened last year, they announced at the interims that they were buying ABL from IM, following which at least 7 of them bought.
Regardless of what I think though, shares sell on what is coming.
In our best ever year OXB was a £15 stock in a year which reported £23m EBITDA on sales of £143m (2021).
We are currently a £3 stock forecasting £40m earnings in 2026 against sales of £218m (from house broker RBC).
If you use OXB's better than 35% then it could be £134m x 1.35 = £180m (2025) making 2026 £244m and EBITDA better than 20% on that (£49m+). Or better.
First step is something to get us back into the FTSE250 where we get much better coverage and more people can buy.
Then (imho) either we eventually end up holding very valuable shares or Novo pays the appropriate premium to take them off us. |
With respect , calling OXB just a manufacturer is akin to calling Nvidia just a chip maker . They are the best cell and gene therapy manufacturer in the world in one of the most complex areas of pioneering medicine .
Tuco. |
Even a double would be nice, but on what sort of logic do you suppose "why would a major pharma risk a big project on a few modified industrial units on the outskirts of Oxford"? Is not their track record of manufacture, their fast growing client list, their early and leading edge development of the delivery technology significant reason for major pharma to use them? |
I still have a modest holding here. But we (oxb) are just a manufacturer (all be it sophisticated one ) therefore, why would a major pharma risk a big project on a few modified industrial units on the outskirts of Oxford. Good luck to everyone but this is will double at best. |
Personally,i think the idea that there's something in the wings that has inhibited director dealing is very feasible but clearly the idea loses credibility as time goes by.The optimism displayed by the board is clearly consistent with director purchases.The negotiation of the deal with Institut M. Involving an issue of shares at over £4 might similarly encourage the idea that directors would be keen to make PA share purchases if they were free to do so.Its all speculative of course but given what we do know,a fair supposition i reckon. |
I as the original poster mentioned, I would like to apologise to HST and others who take time to do analysis and inform this board if my text was taken as a slight. Please continue with your time and efforts. I personally see no signs of the next significant (big or bigger was a poor choice of words on my behalf) but am front of the queue wanting the share price to tick higher in the near term for reasons previously stated. Best wishes HST. |
No, wrong again. I recognised it was speculation but thought the conclusion unjustified.
And remember, I was not the original poster, and did not tick it up. |
Aye. It is speculation, and everyone (except you presumably) recognised that. |
No, I'm not. I just can't see why directors not buying means there must be giant news in the offing. It could also mean there's bad news coming. Or as I said, any number of other reasons. We just don't know. |
super. But you are missing out the 'truth' that something big is likely vewry shortly because of the growing numbers of clients, the likelyhood of a giant 10 year vaccine contract, et al.
Of course it is speculation, but speculation that fits known facts. |
And it wasn't me although I can see his concern. You're saying if I understand it correctly that directors aren't buying shares because something big is in the works about which they have inside information. But I don't see how you can know that - there are lots of reasons why directors might not be buying - enough already, no money, wish to avoid sending wrong signal etc etc, so I fear you're reading too much into it. |
Well Harry......it WASNT me! |
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