"the-intelligent-cloud-and-machine-learning"
- is simply an earlier description of the AI tools.
Nowadays "AI" has even more 'magic properties' as far as public is concerned than did 'Cloud' or 'machine learning'. |
I'm honestly of a mindset these days where I'll take good news from any route, but of course OXB have been playing at this for some time with Microsoft (see below) and others.
My point about comparing companies, as I've mentioned before is:-
Biotech (like OXB was) is drug development. Major worry in Biotech is will the drug work and can we sell it to a pharmaceutical company before we run out of money.
CDMO (like OXB is now) develop, manufacture and provide paid services for both Biotech and Pharmaceutical companies.
Pharmaceutical companies (household names like AZ and Moderna) are focused on how well their licenced drugs sell, when the patent life expires, and what replaces them, which brings you full circle to the Biotech companies again.
So it's all related but they are not really playing the same game. |
I know Harry is correctly very uneasy when i make analogies with that other ex Covid vaccine favourite Moderna but the stock continues to uncannily parallel OXBs share price moves.Moderna are up some two thirds this year,OXB around 50 per cent.The recent strong appreciation in the stock price is, in part at least,due to perceived advantages that Moderna might gain from investment in AI.Will AI deliver perceptible advantages for OXB? |
 I think both can be true. I'm sure you are correct about part of the current situation, but we know from news stories that last year that there were record withdrawals from funds / unit trusts / whatever, and that the likes of Liontrust (big holder in OXB of course) were periodically selling a small percentage of every holding to cover those redemptions. Have those withdrawals stopped completely now or just slowed? Is it still happening but being absorbed much better by current renewed interest in OXB?
On a very small sample size I think your argument about short term profit taking is probably carried simply by some of the names frequently posting here (and then not posting here).
On the other hand, I've watched OXB for many years now and I'm pretty convinced that they have something significant and currently unknown to us on the go (unless malaria is a lucky guess).
There are too many little clues - no insiders buying after the results - no press stories from OXB to the papers following the results - the number of production staff we are recruiting - this director role with the spend which doesn't match our current business - and so on.
You could argue that it's simply organic and the proof of what Seb previously told us - i.e. 2 serious enquiries per week and a win rate which is getting us a lot of work. But after explaining that to us (and the market) more of the same wouldn't stop the insiders buying in that little open period which normally follows the half yearly financial statement.
Unfortunately these days (and this is not a complaint) the success of OXB (which I realise you would never guess by the share price) means it's increasingly difficult to keep track. I'm sure you know what I mean, but 6 customers at the end of 2017 vs 35 last month - when most of them are now confidential? It's a different kettle of fish.
There are a few things we know. We know the US government is about to sanction WuXi and we know that OXB has received enquiries from people looking for a contingency.
We know we have a deal with Serum to provide capacity to make a lot of something for a decade. We just don't know what it is. Malaria vaccine seems a good fit.
We know there is a commercial production deal for myeloma CAR-T in the works, because they told us recently - but the partner isn't obvious.
Would any of those double the spend of our purchasing team? Maybe not individually, but combined then very possibly.
Or it could be something completely different... |
From what I read here, there is a sense of expectancy of new news to get the nexg leg up share price wise.
I am not sure this is needed, more that we need to work through the bits of profit taking from the recent large rise and consolidate for a little where we are...clearly a decent next trading update for H1 2024 will also help our cause..
nai etc |
I'd no idea the Isle of Wight was up for sale Dom.
In other news, and furthering my pet theory (with little actual evidence) that OXB have something big on the boil, I present exhibit number 34c...
We can take a reasonably educated guess that OXB's costs are about £134m per year.
Why? Because it's the upper end of Stuart's revenue guidance for a year he said would broadly breakeven.
We know the biggest fraction of that cost is people (£81m last year and will be more with France this year).
Knock £81m from £134 and something around £50m is everything else (currently).
Look at point 2 in that job ad today - "Ownership of a direct and indirect spend circa £100 Million.".
So what is that / where is it coming from / when will it arrive? |
Aye and earlier today when the share price was showing as 3.30, it popped up and took my limit order at 3.35 out (small one, just to buy the lady wife something nice!). |
Some clever manipulation to get the bid to end at 328.5 and protect the trend - never in doubt was it as they say :) |
In the 'old days', folk didn't want to be 'out' over a weekend..... |
Bank holiday weekend Dom? |
Very strange price action. Can't be a sell off, there is no news. The profit taking was last week. A lot of upside generally agreed. |
Chart remains super interesting with
10 May low 315
17 May low 323.5
22 May low 328.5
So we have now put in 3 higher lows in a row....pressure building nicely on the upper end of resistance area, providing we maintain this pattern :)
dyor/nai etc |
Xoptimist,
You've obviously read the note, but they have an upside of all OXB's goals being achieved and a downside of it not happening. Their target is a little over 60% of their upside, which (given the past history of events like Homology abandoning their portfolio) seems sensible to me.
Why tie yourself to an upside scenario when a compromise is still more than double today's price and can be revised later in the year anyway?
To my mind OXB plainly have big news due. RBC as joint house broker likely know (or have worked that out) too. They likely don't know what it is, but when it arrives it will be an ideal opportunity to revise any forecasts.
Back in the FTSE250 this year and I will be more than satisfied. |
It seems destined to break that barrier before long. In the mean time we can be grateful and buy the dips. |
Since they could buy in the market at ~350p it MUST BE A SCAM. Report it!
It is rare to get a legitimate approach unless a notably large shareholder and then the offer would be within pence of the prevailing quote. |
My takeaway from the RBC report is that there is plenty in it which is good confirmatory news for the patient and the committed - which seems to be where many of us are at. But whilst the company looks increasingly investible - especially on days when more than a million shares change hands - some investors thinking about building a serious position may still be sitting on their hands wanting the company to be closer to EBITDA positive in 2025 and eps in 2026. RBC themselves are not buying Stuart’s projection of roughly break even this year and are instead forecasting negative EBITDA this year of £13m with cash at end of year down to £85m. And multiple days where volume is less than 100k shares traded will deter many from trying to accumulate on thin trading. Whilst we may have positive trading signals and some momentum and we may drift gently higher - what has been said here time and time again remains true: that any significant momentum will be dependent on news. Everything tells us it’s definitely coming - and hopefully before the interims - and so we are called upon to continue to be patient and stay the course. |
29400 buy @ £3.3350. That's a hefty buy |
Cabaletta have early data out on the 14th of June for 2 trials PB. There might be a little bit of good news in that for us. |
BMS
FDA Grants Accelerated Approval to Liso-Cel for Relapsed/Refractory Follicular Lymphoma |
A little bit of reflected glory would be nice!HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cabalettabio_pact-2024enterpriseawards-cart-activity-7199349732584890369-fPGB?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android |
Not much interest today...
... a broker note that suggests a five times growth in the share price doesn't move anyone it seems? WTF! |
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