Xoptimist,
You've obviously read the note, but they have an upside of all OXB's goals being achieved and a downside of it not happening. Their target is a little over 60% of their upside, which (given the past history of events like Homology abandoning their portfolio) seems sensible to me.
Why tie yourself to an upside scenario when a compromise is still more than double today's price and can be revised later in the year anyway?
To my mind OXB plainly have big news due. RBC as joint house broker likely know (or have worked that out) too. They likely don't know what it is, but when it arrives it will be an ideal opportunity to revise any forecasts.
Back in the FTSE250 this year and I will be more than satisfied. |
It seems destined to break that barrier before long. In the mean time we can be grateful and buy the dips. |
Since they could buy in the market at ~350p it MUST BE A SCAM. Report it!
It is rare to get a legitimate approach unless a notably large shareholder and then the offer would be within pence of the prevailing quote. |
 My takeaway from the RBC report is that there is plenty in it which is good confirmatory news for the patient and the committed - which seems to be where many of us are at. But whilst the company looks increasingly investible - especially on days when more than a million shares change hands - some investors thinking about building a serious position may still be sitting on their hands wanting the company to be closer to EBITDA positive in 2025 and eps in 2026. RBC themselves are not buying Stuart’s projection of roughly break even this year and are instead forecasting negative EBITDA this year of £13m with cash at end of year down to £85m. And multiple days where volume is less than 100k shares traded will deter many from trying to accumulate on thin trading. Whilst we may have positive trading signals and some momentum and we may drift gently higher - what has been said here time and time again remains true: that any significant momentum will be dependent on news. Everything tells us it’s definitely coming - and hopefully before the interims - and so we are called upon to continue to be patient and stay the course. |
29400 buy @ £3.3350. That's a hefty buy |
Cabaletta have early data out on the 14th of June for 2 trials PB. There might be a little bit of good news in that for us. |
BMS
FDA Grants Accelerated Approval to Liso-Cel for Relapsed/Refractory Follicular Lymphoma |
A little bit of reflected glory would be nice!HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cabalettabio_pact-2024enterpriseawards-cart-activity-7199349732584890369-fPGB?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android |
Not much interest today...
... a broker note that suggests a five times growth in the share price doesn't move anyone it seems? WTF! |
From now I suspect £16'ish |
X5 upside from their current price target of 7.40? |
That's an excellent point Plutonian.
It all does seem to fit very well for a scenario of some upcoming large malaria vaccine orders over a very long period of time, but (there's always a but) nobody else seems to be talking about the possibility.
So my guess is that somewhere between that theoretical available number of patients and OXB getting the order, there's a lot of infrastructure which needs to be in place first (i.e. it might be a while yet). |
Harry,
Would a fill-and-finish organisation for vaccines not count as a CMO. We know of one in Wales with contracts from India :) |
There's another RBC report out and I particularly like this comment:.....
"We see a further c.5x upside over the next four years as achievable" |
OXB have a job ad out for a director of manufacturing
Read this bit:- "The purpose of this role is to lead, direct and manage the effective performance of a team of MSAT scientists and engineers to deliver technical projects and tasks within OXB, working directly with stakeholders, clients, and third-party Contract Manufacturing Organisations (CMO’s) to ensure delivery is on time and to the required quality.".
and third-party Contract Manufacturing Organisations (CMO’s)???
That can surely only mean that they are looking to outsource / subcontract work?
I can't easily come up with something new where 2 facilities in France, 1 in Boston and 3 in Oxford wouldn't be able to cope. |
It's the (expected) news which is needed really, isn't it?
I think we all suspect there is something looming (no insider trades and such clues).
Whether that is finally the malaria supply order or something completely different - who knows?
But OXB seem to be recruiting a lot of production staff and production is where the money is. They are evidently gearing up to make a lot of something.
Bit of an obvious statement to make, but one day we will get news which changes the guidance - it's just a case of when. |
We need to launch the assault on 3.40 earlier in the day before the oppo troops wake up and ready their late afternoon defences - some cheery soul has for the past 2-3 weeks had between 20-40k consistently to drop at the close :)
nai etc |
Interesting story from Uganda
So they are dropping RTS in favour of R21 and expect to start in October. |
Much better I'm sure. An awful lot of analysts are very well qualified in what they cover.
Just to play the other hand here for a moment, anyone detached from OXB who saw that at peak pandemic OXB's vaccine contract for AZ was 87% of their bioprocessing work, in part because their routine work had been decimated by covid restrictions, and then decided to walk away - well, you can't argue that it was the correct decision.
Had the AZ vaccine lasted as long as Pfizer / Moderna offerings (i.e. the full pandemic) and carried us until our normal work returned, then they would have been very wrong.
But that's history now and we have since had three full presentations (interims / JPM conference / full year results) saying that the work is back, record revenue / earnings in sight - yet we have a market rating which suggests something worse. |
Do they understand at all the industry as you do Harry - big question mark for me. |
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