 The problem with the news is that OXB have said they aren't announcing routine stuff anymore, just as they aren't going to maintain a pipeline page. I'm sure one of the reasons for the latter is simply that it would look bizarre now with something like 30 programme lines all marked confidential / undisclosed.
Roch (in his set piece at the results) rolled out that KPI table again which replaces the pipeline page with simple totals, but without saying how he intends to share it or how often.
Aside from that minor gripe about transparency, we can pretty much say for sure that almost all of our new run of the mill work from now on isn't going to be RNS news.
Back to the assumption here that big news would be the most likely reason none of the insiders bought and what could it be?
You have seen my recurring malaria vaccine guess, but that's 2+ years old now and in that scenario Serum are the contractor to Oxford University and we would be helping Serum meet demand / obligations.
But as they told us at the interims, based on our performance during the pandemic, we seem to have become very favoured by the vaccine lab at Oxford University directly.
So we know (this isn't a guess) that OXB are on with 2 vaccines for Oxford University. These are Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Lassa fever.
MERS is like covid passed by camels and Lassa is a haemorrhaging disease a bit like Ebola.
Why us? Because these vaccines are based upon Oxford’s ChAdOx platform – the same as their COVID-19 vaccine which OXB proved itself really good at making.
Virus and vaccine train spotters amongst us also know that the OU lab got granted a lot of money late last year for the Junín virus vaccine. Junín virus is like Lassa virus but in Argentina and is again based upon the ChAdOx platform, so there's no golden deerstalker as a reward for working out who is prime candidate lined up to make that - and so on.
But I don't think any of that (great though it is) would be big enough to have the insiders all embargoed.
If it's not ever more new early stage work, then surely it has to be something in commercial supply as that is where the big money is. My number 1 guess is still the malaria vaccine work, but a commercial supply deal for someone else would be second. The market size (number of patients) in malaria is enormous, but the vaccine is also very cheap. It's probably equally lucrative for OXB to make a bucketful of something over the same timeframe which is used in rarer treatments which cost 100,000x more. That field is too big to guess from. |
Interesting to note, Serum Life Sciences, the subsidiary of Serum Institute that invested in OXB - are actually UK based, so they may be building a UK footprint rather than just ties to UK businesses for supply, or it could be just a tax efficient vehicle for doing so. |
The Investec analyst has been far from proactive.He's pretty much followed the share price up and down for years.Now he turns a weak buyer following hard on the heels of Stifel's recent note which was nicely timed.The shares seem to have taken a liking to current price levels around 330p after last week's sprint.We might be needing fresh news to trigger further progress. |
I'll gratefully take any good news Edward, but the OXB story has been good for a while now with the post covid troubles all history. The guidance for both what's gone & what's coming has been there for a while and only seems to improve at each update.
Investec rode through all of that with a maintained hold, but now think it's a buy. Something has obviously tipped the balance for them, but as there is nothing new and obvious, presumably the OXB briefing for analysts has been a cracker? |
3.66 - long overdue upgrade as noted by analyst |
If anyone missed it last Monday then the results webcast in now on the OXB website.
Webcast
Transcript |
Page 180 and 273
They have been rating hold since 2021 so something has obviously got them off the pot with a buy. |
nice one - what is the share price mentioned at all - thanks |
Investec raise to buy today |
As I gather the regular posters on this board are in for the long haul (or have already been hauling for a very long time!) we all might benefit from an increased knowledge of the industry. McKinsey have an industry briefing on Cell & Gene Therapy, and while I've not yet read through the articles myself (I will do at the weekend) here is the link. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/mckinsey-insights-on-cell-and-gene-therapy |
End of another chapter in OXB`s history.
AstraZeneca is withdrawing its Covid-19 vaccine worldwide |
That was one oral presentation of the two OXB are presenting at ASGCT24 this week.
They also have 9 posters accepted. 1 about further developing TRiP and 8 others. |
AAV Manufacturing Takes Centre Stage at ASGCT24
Published: May 07, 2024
Oxford Biomedica’s Alex Meola also discussed the use of additives to help isolate the full capsids from not only empty capsids but from a third group that includes a mixture of empty and DNA-containing capsids. “Not all empty capsids are created equal,” he noted, but the company’s proprietary additive combined with the use of anion-exchange chromatography (AEX), which uses AAVs’ positive charge to separate the vectors from impurities during production, was able to increase yield. |
Going to be another million share day in a few minutes.
I preferred this morning at 4% up to this afternoon at 4% down. |
John Evans
@john_evans3
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2h
We believe BEAM-101 can become the best-in-class editing option for patients with severe SCD, with first data later this year.
John Evans
@john_evans3
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1h
We are also on track starting up the BEAM-302 trial in the UK for AATD after clearance by the MHRA, and the BEAM-301 US IND is coming soon as well.
Thank you to the team and all our patients and investigators. Lots of progress ahead for base editing in the clinic! |
Well,well......there's the anticipated tree shake.The MMs know after last week that there's no shortage of short term profits that private clients might be tempted to bank.The next couple of hours will confirm whether there's some ongoing US interest and whether we'll establish a meaningful base camp for a further climb. |
The ebullience of the post Q&A session does suggest that there could be numerous favourable developments in the offing and one might well be inhibiting insider buying.I agree with Chillpill that the collapse in the share price was something of an aberration due to redemption selling.There seemed no reason for the price to tumble some 40% post the RNS outlining the ABL/I.M.agreement.The price is now getting back on track to where one might of expected it to be in the days/weeks post the Institut Merieux deal.I still feel,after some understandable churning around this level that we should move towards that agreed magic price of 407.4p.It would be nice if we could rationalise every stock move but sometimes the market's just plain daft simply reflecting buying and selling |
Update on the YTB323 trial (Novartis T-Charge) for which we supply the vector.
As of 2nd May now recruiting 225 patients at 39 sites worldwide.
That's big for a CAR-T trial and just for the lead YTB323 trial. They have 2 others following on.
The big advantage of T-Charge is that it's just over a week to treat a patient, whereas current CAR-T is about 3 weeks. That reduction in waiting time makes a big difference for very poorly patients who have failed on other medicine and putting it into them earlier also helps with the storm response. |
But if it is that, then it's not a good explanation for no insiders buying - is it? |
The other possibility here relates to the last question in the Q&A at the end of the webcast, which was about what happens if the US government puts sanctions on China for CDMO - and in particular WuXi?
I read this morning that the senate committee voted 11-1 to take that to the next stage.
That won't be quick as both the senate and the house have to vote on it. If both vote yes then they need to wake the president up and put a pen in his hand.
However, if you were looking to place a CDMO deal now, then it's something you would think about isn't it?
Similarly if you are already locked into China then will you be looking for a contingency plan involving another supplier?
Isn't this the type of thing which hedge funds make their money taking positions on? |
I see the price fall below £4 as an aberration as there were forced institutional sellers on the back of falling out of the FTSE and MSCI indices.
BioMerieux and Novo Nordisk have picked up a lot of that stock and won’t be selling any time soon. |
Two large trades have paid a significant premium so we have some impatient buyers.
If sellers think (correctly) that we are on a roll and decide to hold off (most of the really urgent ones may well be out by now - or at least soon) then we could have a very tight market and the makings of a spike. So far it has been active but orderly with more sellers being coaxed out for a few extra pence.
[Ed]....and a significant spike would start the rumour mill grinding. |
Very curious isn't it?
We expected / hoped for post results press coverage over the weekend - and there was none (so it isn't that).
If it's the people who follow / would normally be interested in OXB who are buying, then surely they would have seen the '23 firm guidance and '24 forecast before results day. Why are they suddenly buying strongly at day 6?
Why have none of the insiders bought?
It does all suggest that there is something else expected. |
£65k buy |
Post results presentations seem to have gone well! |
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