 Thanks again GH, but there's no need.
I agree the future looks exciting and I still hope to get back into the FTSE250 this year. If they manage that then I will consider the post-covid wilderness years to be history.
Malaria is by far the easiest possibility to guess because of course lots of the pieces in that puzzle are very public. Still no guarantee though. There will be lots of other possibilities which it would be very difficult to guess - one of those is obviously very nearly there (as per the March RNS).
There are literally 50 trials / trial applications out there (51 programmes as of results day, with 1 programme being commercial supply for Novartis) and those we know of in that 50 are with:-
Arcellx
Beam Therapeutics
BMS (Juno)
Boehringer Ingelheim
Cabaletta Bio
CARGO Terapeutics
Immatics
Immune Design
Kyverna
Novartis
Orchard Therapeutics
Sardocor
Some of these are only one programme and one of them is for six, but it still illustrates pretty well that most of what OXB does is confidential.
I realise you know the way it works and are familiar with the slide I referenced above, but whilst upstream / early stage process development is a nice little earner, for those which are successful in trials then the later rewards are much greater.
If we had say just 3 partners, then that's spinning the wheel with the hope that one would succeed. With 10 partner programmes then you are pretty close to being sure of backing a winner. With 50 you have beaten the odds and eventually will have multiple clinical supply agreements to bank on for many years.
In the results they told us that we had 3 at phase 3 trial pivotal stage (simply by getting to phase 3 then it's increased to something like a 70% chance of success in registration) but of course and as the analyst asked, a lot of drugs now take the BLA registration shortcut from phase 2 and those are simply grouped with the 46 earlier stage trials - so that's something else we just don't know.
FT quarterly reshuffle dates are end of May, end of August and end of November.
It will be interesting to see what happens this week. Will the trend continue / will it take a rest?
With OXB basically there now (covering costs with revenue this year) then any news is significant, but big news? |
Most of us really appreciate your input and grasp of detail H. Thank you.
For whatever reasons, the market has been slow to react and it’s given us a great opportunity to take advantage.
The future looks exciting and importantly, looks sustainable.
2025 could, on forecast growth and margins, get us back to highs and beyond.
Great to see |
takeiteasy,
Having owned OXB as both FT smallcap and FTSE250 constituent, I can tell you for certain that there's a noticeable difference - not just in visibility, but also wrt impact of any news.
I've no way to prove this to you, but we learned during the sustained selling last year that whilst some of it was due to funds like Lionstrust selling a % of every stock they owned to enable them to pay redemptions as their investors withdrew fund units, there were also funds who sold everything simply because OXB had fallen below the minimum market cap size for their own fund holding rules and as OXB then dropped out of certain financial indexes which I'd never heard of, that was like a vicious circle of one causing the other.
Had OXB managed to land something significant prior to that and just hang on in the FTSE250, then none of the mkt cap related selling would have happened - or let's say it would have been nowhere near as bad for us investors. Unfortunately politics and the post-covid economy gave them a right kicking and last week may have marked the beginning of the return.
There are lots of possibilities where OXB could make a small profit this year, but remember that almost all of what OXB do as a CDMO these days is work where the payment comes at the end. So whilst anything significant would be great news, if they won something tomorrow which took 9 months to do then that's in the 2025 FY figures which we already know is a profit - so just a bigger profit next year.
Malaria is the easiest possibility to guess because it's in the news all the time, we have the agreement in place with the prime contractor and they are under certain constraints regarding manufacture. It's also by far the biggest market (regarding number to be treated) of anything since covid.
Is that any guarantee we will still get it? Nope, there are no guarantees, but even a small chunk of that would be a big thing for us. There is the issue of distribution here, which might be a bigger obstacle than supply, but regardless of demand which can actually be used right now, it can be manufactured in anticipation and kept cold for a long time.
A couple of years ago Stuart started using a particular slide which has evolved into slide 22 on this
Back to my theory that OXB try quite hard to tell you things which they can't actually tell you, then for me that is them telling you that a $ represents a unit of millions in dollars.
So, early stage upstream development shown as $-$$ means contracts typically worth single digit millions of USD and occasionally double figures.
Downstream and trial support, especially if it's a big trial needing lots of material is $$-$$$ (and remember here that most trials take a long time, so that's not all in one year), but of course commercial supply is the standout here and the point is that it is most lucrative and ongoing for the life of the approved drug.
In the very long example of last night (sorry about that, I ended up on a roll) malaria is already through the trial process and approved, so it would be straight to commercial supply for 10 years (at least). That's a very big thing for OXB.
Stuart said in a previous webcast (JPM) "those commercial products are gold because that gives you the predictable routine manufacturing." then went on to add that they were working very hard to get something else alongside Kymriah commercial supply.
20th of March their RNS said "Recently, the Company signed a contract with a new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma. Manufacturing will take place in Oxbox, the Company's Oxford-based manufacturing facility.".
If they end up with 3 commercial clients (i.e. 2 more in a relatively short time) then that's a huge thing for OXB - but whether that tips us into profit for 2024 or just ensures a monster 2025 I don't know. |
London exchange closed but New York open...... does that mean the yanks can continue buying? |
Whatever the main driver of the move up last week, spare a thought for the junior fund manager in New York or London who has been tasked with writing a report that justifies the fund selling over a million OXB shares (I think that was the number?) in early March all the down to 160 or so. I'm very grateful to them, for it meant I was able to average down what was a relatively small holding to a much larger one at an average of under 200, with ready access to buy orders. Thanks again, and good luck, whoever you are .... |
Thanks Harry and very interesting thoughts as ever.
I think the answer to the scale of the rebound is certainly down to company specific points that have been well documented here, but also the UK smaller cap index has been in near hybernation mode for the past 5 years for all the wider economic and societal issues (CV19) that have occurred.
Also with UK seeming to be reducing inflation quicker than other areas, UK small cap seems finally to be getting some attention in 2024 - there are over 20 firms on the list with recent gains over 20% from this list from HL.
hxxps://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-small-cap/performance?column=date_3m&order=desc
It may also be as prosaic as the US hedge funds reducing their short exposure to the UK mid caps as they see a recovery in UK helping other investors feel more confident about bringing some of the portfolio allocation back to UK.
So I think OXB has got good timing to deliver better news at a time when the market may have more open ears - and we all know the more recent times when the UTs were needing to dump small cap shares as redemptions hit them.
Again nai, but will be interesting to see how this plays out over the remainder of 2024 - I think in one of the Q&A there was a hint about some form of possible profitability (nothing committed by BOD) in H2 this year which again may have lifted sentiment. |
in 2024 trust the "experts" or trust our chaps :(77% differential) :)
nai |
Happy international StarWars day everybody. May the 4th be with you and all that.
OXB try to avoid 3rd parties for recruitment. You can see what they are looking for at any particular time via that link on their website
11 at the moment.
Kingzog wins the prize for getting post 7777. |
Has anyone here still been topping up since we headed above 3 quid...someone must have been buying :) |
''The scope of recruitment will include from junior to director level roles.'' |
OXB embarking on a hiring spree for numerous roles, from 'toilet cleaner' to Director. Expansion no doubt in expectation of volume led work as per ''Build Talent Pools for specific high volume roles'' :
Talent Acquisition (Recruitment) Specialist
Oxford BioMedica (UK) Limited
OXFORD
Salary - To define
Start date - 3 May 2024
Closing date - 31 May 2024
Job description:
We are currently recruiting for a Talent Acquisition Specialist to join the Human Resources team, initially for a 12 month fixed term contract. The purpose of this role is to partner closely with assigned senior level stakeholders, acting as an advisor and taking ownership for the end-to-end recruitment lifecycle, from recruitment briefing meeting, advertising, sourcing, arranging interviews and making job offers, negotiating and agreeing final packages. The scope of recruitment will include from junior to director level roles.
Your responsibilities in this role would be:
For assigned roles, you will manage the end-to-end recruitment process. This includes:
Conduct a Recruitment Briefing Meeting with the Hiring Manager to ensure an understanding of the requirements of the vacancy and the interview process, providing guidance on the current candidate market place
Source
Develop job adverts to post and advertise vacancies
Search and ‘headhunt’ candidates directly for niche roles
Build Talent Pools for specific high volume roles
Promote the Employee Referral program and encourage internal development and movement
Advertise on LinkedIn and JobBoards, promoting the Employee Value Proposition
cont...... |
On for one million shares traded on a Friday before a May Bank holiday with a 10% rising share price. Not bad? |
US Payrolls missed, rate cut probability increased, indices rally. |
No doubt about it. America are buying in having been left out earlier in the day. |
I must say Harry that it's worth holding OXB just to get an education on what's going on in the pharmacy sector. Keep up the good work! |
We now have a high quality problem on our hands. I liken the recent movement in the share price to starting a very big fire at a tyre factory viz it is very visible and will attract attention from miles around. This could push the spike here quite high but it will then be interesting to see if a sudden fall sucks in more buyers. I seem to remember comment that shares were being issued at c.£4 at the time of the French acquisition: perhaps that a good starting point for genuine current share price value. |
I have no idea what is going on either, but it does remind me of a time when buying a few SCI at 270p, seeing them go to 330p. It was an illiquid stock and when a forced seller appeared, the MM's walked the price down to <50p. Once the seller dumped the final tranche, the price moved upwards rapidly almost hitting 700p. |
i would like to thank Harry for his posts.i am now back in profit having been looking at a big loss. Without those well informed posts i probably would have lost the faith. |
Is there more to this than a lovely set of results - if this was always worth 4-5 on worst case Harry, why did it ever get so low...I find this whole episode very odd. Perhaps it is simply the RR type scenario when the market gets too down on a great business?
back into an auction - unbelievable :) |
Wowza.... looking great.:) |
There has being a lot of pain watching the decline of OXB price over the last while.
My smile is widening by the minute... think we are all entitled to some sunshine .
Enjoy |
After the half year results, IM bought aggressively as part of their stated aim to get to 10% and that took the price rapidly to £3. As we know, they may not actually need to buy any more in the market to get to 10% once the EUR20m shares are issued later in the year.
It could be, if they are not currently inside on anything, that they have taken the view to aim to go beyond 10%? They were very clear before on their aims, but I don't think they'd need to announce any change to that in advance? |
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