wonder if we will clear 3.0 on the bid by close of the day.... |
 Charts aren't really my thing ygor, but I would agree that normally a share like OXB should be news driven. Last year though, we all saw that when there were large forced sellers around, even good OXB news had little or no effect.
Our FD has promised that he can double '23 FY revenue by the end of '26 and make more than 20% on it in earnings. If they simply achieve that I'll be happy, but their latest projections indicate the possibility for much more.
Most of our portfolio of work is secret. We only know about a third of the customers and with some of those we only know the customer, not what we are actually doing. But out of that rough third we have quite a few interesting things coming due this year.
You might even be able to double that number with unknowns at a similar stage from the mystery fraction.
Not all the trials will be a success, that just never happens and is the whole point of the trial system, but with the number of programmes OXB work on now, then the odds are with them to partner their fair share of winners.
They have a lot of cash and they are winning a lot of work. It all looks very good. |
Very comprehensive update Harry ...... I'm beginning to get the picture. I've had a look at the Rolls Royce Holdings charts and the 3 year version is perhaps the most interesting. Since October 2022 it looks like a set of stairs. Sudden jumps in the share price followed by prolonged periods of drift. When I say drift I mean broadly horizontal over a fair period of time. I think this chart reflects a reluctance of the market to pay higher prices until it receives another chunk of good news. Does that not similar to the scenario that we are looking at? |
This muppet does this on multiple boards - ignore. |
Some investors sold out here & bought APH ( alliance Pharma ) |
Oxford Biomedica eyes global market amid hawkish trends.
Contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) Oxford Biomedica has launched its One OXB strategy in an effort to align its global footprint.
For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, the cell and gene therapy (CGT) CDMO reported total revenues of £89.5 million ($111 million), a 36% decrease year-on-year. However, order intake increased to £131 million ($163 million) in 2023 as compared to £85 million ($106 million) previously.
For FY 2024, the CDMO expects a year of growth as it focuses on adeno-associated virus (AAV) and lentiviral vectors anticipating a revenue between £126 million ($157 million) and £134 million ($167 million). To support this ambition, the UK-based firm has launched the One OXB strategy to increase efficiency.
“For aligning our footprint in the UK, the US and EU, we have put in place our new One OXB strategy to harmonize and optimize our operations so that we can benefit from increased efficiency and agility,” said Frank Mathias, CEO of Oxford Biomedica.
Treading the path to recovery, the One OXB strategy includes the conclusion of workforce reorganization across the UK and the US to meet the needs of a CDMO and move towards a “site-based model.”
“We have laid down different initiative, on refocus on six strategic pillars to integrate and transform the company. Within these six strategic pillars, we have structured 20 work streams, globally aligned with different experts from the different geographies which focus on leading the transformation of the organization to become a pure-play CDMO with a global network,” said Thierry Cournez, chief operating officer (COO) of Oxford Biomedica.
The firm has facilities in Oxford, UK and near Boston, Massachusetts (US). The CDMO has further expanded its presence across the US and EU with the acquisition of a site in Bedford, Massachusetts and two sites in Lyon and in Strasbourg (both in France) with the acquisition of ABL Europe.
Citing an era of growth, CCO Sébastien Ribault said, “It was important to add some new capabilities [...] which was one of the drivers of the acquisition of the two new sites in Lyon and Strasbourg that we acquired from ABL Europe. The geographical location was one of the drivers, and increasing the number of vectors that we can deliver was another.”
“If we're looking at the market as it is today, we're shy of $3 billion market size with a growth that is estimated between 2024 and 2028 of about 20% year-on-year to reach almost $6 billion in 2028. Interestingly, the three key segments that we're serving, AAVs, lentiviral vectors, and adeno keep growing. And not only do they grow in the US and in Europe, but they also grow in Asia. And that is the reason why we wanted to make sure we would have enough capacity to serve the clients wherever they are that drove the acquisitions.” |
The simplest way I can explain this would be to start by outlining some definitions:-
Biotech companies develop drugs.
CMOs make drugs for 3rd parties.
CDMOs offer development and technical services (like adapting vectors) as well as making drugs for 3rd parties.
When I first bought OXB shares it was pure biotech drug discovery.
During that exciting time we burned our way through triple digits of millions with the aim of getting one of our own drugs to market. None of them got there.
Then we were approached by Novartis to do contract work for their experimental drug around our LentiVector and so we became this hybrid Biotech and CDMO model where the CDMO earnings from Novartis were very welcome in helping to pay for the Biotech R&D side costs.
Unfortunately all the Biotech side of the business managed to do during that entire time was partner our experimental Parkinson's drug which in turn helped bankrupt Sio/Axovant (the partner). If anything else happened during that time regarding our in-house drug pipeline earning money, then OXB never told us about it.
Roch (interim CEO at that point after the commander retires) says that OXB will never pay for another in-house trial and efforts continue with a long held plan to sell or spin-out the whole in-house drug business. There were no takers and even a specialist brought in and tasked with selling that off couldn't do it.
By this time all the board have looked at how much money we were earning by making the Oxford University covid vaccine for AZ at a less than commercial rate and it dwarfed anything we had previously earned.
At that point the decision is made. Everybody new from that point onward (Seb, Frank, Mark, Thierry and such) are all CDMO professionals and know how to do it very well. The old biotech business ends at the end of last year (along with the costs of running it).
Pure Biotech > Hybrid Biotech CDMO > Pure CDMO specialising in CGT. |
Thanks Harry. Interesting and sounds like the cost cutting has been very severe here. Regarding the recent share price movement issue, the only share that I can think of that has recently mimicked OXB is Rolls Royce. Completely different industry, but provides more evidence that a strong recovery story trumps a balance sheet that has been shot to pieces and badly needs an injection of equity. I'll compare the two when I get a spare 5minutes. |
Always the possibility here Dom that he has those hidden somewhere so that Mrs Shah can't ever find them by accident and discover how much he paid for them.
If he's in right at the beginning then won't he need about £25 before he breaks even? |
and 3 cheers for Mr Shah who has held his 3% for well over 20 years! |
MMs mounting a defence of the barriers at £3 as expected - wonder for how long.... |
I am sure that the biggest factor in our favour (assuming we keep the quality we are renowned for), is that we have capacity. Capacity to say 'Yes' to any potential client with the right money.
Remembering that's how we got into this business, and bought the first volume production facility, because Prof. Kingsman was miffed that he had to wait for a 'turn' for production space in someone's schedule. That must be getting even more of a problem given the growth of biologics. |
Over £3.
Not so much of a pause then.
£4 next stop - on the chart at least. |
It's a good question ygor and I suspect there isn't a clear-cut answer.
We have shelved our in-house therapeutics R&D but we definitely will not have stopped the delivery systems R&D else LentiVector will forever be stuck at 4th generation (to give one example).
They said they have saved a recurring £30m of costs by chopping the therapeutics pipeline, but also by streamlining the company. The Yarnton lease is also up for renewal this year - which could be part of that saving if they don't renew it.
Frank said words to the effect that his first few months in the CEO role was basically asking what everybody in the company did. Following that review we now have less people and no in-house drugs. They will still spend a lot on making sure that TetraVecta and InAAVate keep their position as the best / equal best delivery vectors out there. |
I've been keeping an eye on this Board since I bought a few of these at around £2 a couple of months back. My interest was originally caught by the Sunday Times article on the Serum Institute of India and its owners the Poonawalla family. I have a school friend who always says if you want to make money stick close to people who have plenty of it. It seems to me that OXB may be following this principle at the corporate level. I'm not overly familiar with 'Contract Development Manufacturing Organisations' but I'm learning. One question for participant's here: the latest financials indicated that £59.4m was spent on R&D in 2023. Will this figure fall under the new CDMO structure or is it an irrelevant question anyway as henceforth somebody else will always be paying the bill? |
Interesting thoughts as ever.
Perhaps the MMs hope some of us have set sales at a round number of £3 to start a shake as this has not happened so far. Will be interesting to see what this price point does to trading, some here have said they are waiting beyond this mark to sell so perhaps will wait on a longer timescale for holding... |
I'm both intrigued and encouraged by the absence of director buying since the results. DYOR |
Novo Nordisk beating expectations this morning, first quarter sales up 24%. NV took a strategic partnership with OXB in 2019, investing in OXB shares. Not sure what has become of that alliance, partnership since? How are OXB collaborating with or supporting NV drugs pipeline? |
I suspect in 2 or 3 months we will get a restatement of forecast... profit THIS year, even better next year.
The accounts demonstrate everything that costs has been tossed in last year, business still pouring in.
Just my opinion. |
Couldn't resist a top up. All good things come to those that wait |
I think maybe everyone anticipated a period of profit taking. Seems not. |
all gone quiet here - is everyone taking a day off to recover from all the recent excitement :) |
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