I am sure that the biggest factor in our favour (assuming we keep the quality we are renowned for), is that we have capacity. Capacity to say 'Yes' to any potential client with the right money.
Remembering that's how we got into this business, and bought the first volume production facility, because Prof. Kingsman was miffed that he had to wait for a 'turn' for production space in someone's schedule. That must be getting even more of a problem given the growth of biologics. |
Over £3.
Not so much of a pause then.
£4 next stop - on the chart at least. |
It's a good question ygor and I suspect there isn't a clear-cut answer.
We have shelved our in-house therapeutics R&D but we definitely will not have stopped the delivery systems R&D else LentiVector will forever be stuck at 4th generation (to give one example).
They said they have saved a recurring £30m of costs by chopping the therapeutics pipeline, but also by streamlining the company. The Yarnton lease is also up for renewal this year - which could be part of that saving if they don't renew it.
Frank said words to the effect that his first few months in the CEO role was basically asking what everybody in the company did. Following that review we now have less people and no in-house drugs. They will still spend a lot on making sure that TetraVecta and InAAVate keep their position as the best / equal best delivery vectors out there. |
I've been keeping an eye on this Board since I bought a few of these at around £2 a couple of months back. My interest was originally caught by the Sunday Times article on the Serum Institute of India and its owners the Poonawalla family. I have a school friend who always says if you want to make money stick close to people who have plenty of it. It seems to me that OXB may be following this principle at the corporate level. I'm not overly familiar with 'Contract Development Manufacturing Organisations' but I'm learning. One question for participant's here: the latest financials indicated that £59.4m was spent on R&D in 2023. Will this figure fall under the new CDMO structure or is it an irrelevant question anyway as henceforth somebody else will always be paying the bill? |
Interesting thoughts as ever.
Perhaps the MMs hope some of us have set sales at a round number of £3 to start a shake as this has not happened so far. Will be interesting to see what this price point does to trading, some here have said they are waiting beyond this mark to sell so perhaps will wait on a longer timescale for holding... |
I'm both intrigued and encouraged by the absence of director buying since the results. DYOR |
Novo Nordisk beating expectations this morning, first quarter sales up 24%. NV took a strategic partnership with OXB in 2019, investing in OXB shares. Not sure what has become of that alliance, partnership since? How are OXB collaborating with or supporting NV drugs pipeline? |
I suspect in 2 or 3 months we will get a restatement of forecast... profit THIS year, even better next year.
The accounts demonstrate everything that costs has been tossed in last year, business still pouring in.
Just my opinion. |
Couldn't resist a top up. All good things come to those that wait |
I think maybe everyone anticipated a period of profit taking. Seems not. |
all gone quiet here - is everyone taking a day off to recover from all the recent excitement :) |
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That's the best news this week Mirabeau. They're the ones with the funds to drive it up. |
The Yanks have woken up |
HST
Bought in on Monday (as a turnaround company following the Covid hiccup and the company's repositioning) and appreciate yours and others contributions.
Tks |
Well hardly surprising. It needs to show chart support. There will be a dip in due course, otherwise no new base on which to build. |
 I've seen similar many times with OXB (and other companies) before and it reminds me of the old adage about the transfer of money from the impatient to the patient.
I'm easy about it and if people who bought in for the results are now taking a few quid out, well nobody ever made a loss taking a profit did they? Even if it is a small profit taken early vs what is on the table long term.
I mentioned the other day about Novartis (obviously a fantastic long term partner for us) and with each announcement it was 2 steps forward and 1 back until it sunk in with the people who matter that a commercial supply deal for them was worth a lot of money to OXB for a long time. You can see those Novartis dates in the long term chart and how the climb lags. Unfortunately covid and the world going mad knocked us down from the Novartis gains, then built us up with the AZ deal and then knocked us down again.
To dive back into my lucky dip of useful sayings, some days you're the pigeon, other days the statue.
Back to where we are and the words of the great philosopher Paul Tuttle Snr., "that was is what was but this is is what is now".
I'd hoped for better press coverage than what we got following the results. That may still be coming, but if it doesn't come soon then OXB need to make some news themselves. I'm actually quite confident that they can do that and of course there were mentions / hints in the webcast.
They listed 2 commercial supply partners, before explaining that it isn't really 2 just yet, it's Novartis + 1 undisclosed preparing for commercial production.
Just who that refers to (we have had many guesses here) doesn't really matter, but I do remember from Novartis and their submission for review, a really important part of the submission (nearly as important as the actual trial data) is proving that if you are granted a licence for a medicine then you can show that you have in place a proven capability to supply drug material immediately to meet the treated need (of that granted licence).
This is what OXB will be doing right now. So whichever regulator it is (MHRA / EMA / FDA) will either be auditing whichever OXB facility have prepared for this work or studying a presentation by OXB's in house QA/QC/Validation people submitted to cover the same thing.
So when the final data for our partner's drug goes before the regulator review committee (soon) part of that submission will be a guarantee of what amount OXB can supply by when and the standards it will meet. It may even have happened and they are simply waiting for the announcement.
Regardless of the if / but / when / where vagaries of that statement, very soon OXB have 2 commercial supply bankers where instead of one off batches for trial supply, they will produce batches continually to meet demand for the life of the drug. It's a big thing for OXB (and us).
On top of this we have Stuart admitting that they are talking about / looking at a couple of things outside of what we would normally do - and surely one of those has to be the long held presumption here of the malaria vaccine for Serum.
My only caution there (assuming our collective guesses are close) is that WHO > UNICEF > GAVI > Serum > OXB in a long line provides massive possibilities for that taking a lot longer than it needs to - but you never know.
An announcement about that would be game changing news for us, but to repeat something I've mentioned before - the only time I've ever seen these huge organisations rush something through was during covid. |
Feels like a period of consolidation for the near term. Let a few lock in short term profits. |
In my last corporate job I was contractually obligated to own company shares worth 300% of my base salary, and I was nowhere near CEO level! We were given 5 years to get to that level from the point where it became necessary, with schemes to convert bonuses to shares all counted in the mix. There will be something similar to that at OCB, I'm sure. To be honest, I'm never happy if executives have less than that sort of level of skin in the game, and 200% for a CEO feels light. My other conviction holdng is BUR, where the executives are very significant shareholders, and where shares for options etc are bought in the open market to avoid shareholder dilution. That's gold standard. |
Page 116 is worth a look as you can work out who has been buying / selling this year.
I would say that Vanguard and Mr Shah have likely just been diluted below 3% when IM received shares in payment for ABL, but the rest is straightforward to spot. |
Astonishing how much is in that report which is of no real relevance to OXB - and certainly not OXB shareholders (unless their name is Greta) - but I'm at page 97 now and have found a new one for me - in that Stuart and Frank are both obliged to hold shares to the value of 200% of their salary (Frank) and 175% (Stuart).
Frank has only met 7% of that so far, so if he doesn't buy some now (as cheap as they are likely to be) then maybe he can't? (i.e. the normal open period post results has something looming?). |
No, I'm pretty sure it's new shares printed by OXB in exchange for Eur20m in cash at a price yet to be determined. |
'In accordance with the terms of the transaction, Institut Mérieux intends to become a major shareholder in Oxford Biomedica and prior to today’s completion of the acquisition of ABL Europe had already built a stake of 3.3 per cent of the Company’s then issued share capital through purchases in the open market, with the intention of owning approximately 10.0 percent of the Company’s ordinary shares by the end of Q3 2024.'
--
So that's 3.2% plus 3.3% = 6.5%. So IM intend to buy in the open market another 3.5% before end Q3-2024. That's some buying to come in the open market. Can you imagine if decent news drops then you'll have private buyers and IM competing for stock |
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