No, I'm pretty sure it's new shares printed by OXB in exchange for Eur20m in cash at a price yet to be determined. |
'In accordance with the terms of the transaction, Institut Mérieux intends to become a major shareholder in Oxford Biomedica and prior to today’s completion of the acquisition of ABL Europe had already built a stake of 3.3 per cent of the Company’s then issued share capital through purchases in the open market, with the intention of owning approximately 10.0 percent of the Company’s ordinary shares by the end of Q3 2024.'
--
So that's 3.2% plus 3.3% = 6.5%. So IM intend to buy in the open market another 3.5% before end Q3-2024. That's some buying to come in the open market. Can you imagine if decent news drops then you'll have private buyers and IM competing for stock |
That was you with the 3x 44044 then? ;)
Annual report is out |
I did get some earlier on - very tricky I know for the size, and now we are in auction no less so getting even harder at these much higher prices than before unless you want a few hundred....truly amazing response to the results and counter intuitive as you would expect profit taking to supply the market with shares :) |
I think the China thing is a mystery to us all red. In my lifetime they have gone from being a closed society who all dressed the same and were lucky if they had a state approved bicycle, to what they are today - where most things are fake (including some of their property bubble cities) - but 2nd largest economy in the world regardless.
The scale of the copying is unparalleled in history, but I think from the perspective of the CEO's, then as long as they are in with the correct people (partnership with someone who is in favour / very well connected) then getting something out a of a huge market is better than simply having your product copied in exchange for nothing.
Will the US actually do anything other than sabre rattling? Remains to be seen. |
What a lovely run since March +50% :-) |
The lack of liquidity for sellers must have been agony on the way down breaking through all the various stop losses, but can help a bit on the way up with various of us trying to add in where we can :) |
i’m no chartist but technical comment i’ve seen confirms very strong short term moving averages that suggests a pretty clear run to over 4 quid.More immediately though,i wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of choppiness in the 280-300 range with the big figure representing resistance six months back. |
There's some structure between 290 - 330, hopefully we'll see a move through that then a pullback into that range to build support.I'm not looking to take a haircut until we're north of 410 all imo dyor ofc. |
I was aware of this; the Economist had an article a few weeks back detailing the various components of the US action on Chinese tech, and gene/ cell therapy was mentioned. A great deal (if not all) of western IP in the field will have already been 'transferred' to Chinese companies some way or other, but the shambles they made of COVID vaccines demonstrated that being able to copy a tech doesn't immediately mean that you can master it. The US action will restrict their being able to gain such mastery, in this and in other fields. They will catch up in time, but by then their commercial reach will have been curtailed somewhat. It should have been done 10 years ago when it became clear that China wouldn't play the free trade game fairly. I'm still astounded at the line of US/ German CEO's visiting China (Musk being the latest) keen to transfer yet more of their IP - and any remaining competitive advantage, home or away - to China. |
Pleased to see that unlike 'normal' behaviours, when an event gives the share price a lift the following day some profits are taken, we seem to have more buyers. Looking good. |
I'm no chartist but I am intrigued by the last question in the webcast about prospective US sanctions on WuXi Biologics.
I was blissfully unware of that one until yesterday, but I believe it to be very significant.
If there is a fudge / political trade done then it won't affect us at all, but if China is off limits for CDMO for a while then who fills the gap?
Remember Stuart's words yesterday - full is between 2x & 3x where we are now.
Hedge funds specialise in hedging bets don't they? Hence the name. Any with an interest in this sector are surely going to be looking to take their "What if?" positions. |
I guess based on the current trajectory we could easily reach £3.50 by mid May (or possibly sooner)
Market seems to be playing catch-up now as OXB proves it's doubters wrong. |
for any charting specialists who invest here, where do you see then first pause for breath ... |
Someone's accumulating |
nice 25,000 buy just now to kick things along a little :) |
It will be interesting to see what happens when US trading opens up. |
Maybe I should have written - they will be in their open period *unless* there is something looming which they all know about. |
If Seb (OXB Chief Commercial Officer) also works for IM (previous owners of ABL Europe) as Senior Advisory Consultant for Merieux Equity Partners, then wouldn't that make IM insiders at OXB?
I don't know the answer to that one btw, but when Vulpes built their huge holding then Martin Diggle was onboard looking after their money, when Novo Holdings built their stake then Robert Ghenchev appeared to look after their money.
Nobody has popped up to be the representative for Institut Merieux and could that be because it's Seb?
If so then we are in an open period now and these people (all the insiders) have their chance to buy in the market (if they want to). Maybe there will be a sign... |
I’ve always found IMs shareholding intentions in respect of OXB stock as clear as mud.They have buying in the market,then there’s the issue of stock at no less than 407.4p,and the intention to acquire stock issued at a (to be decided) volume average price.Meanwhile,we have this 10% holding intent.Is that the minimum,the maximum?Afterall the share price is a moving target so how far does the money stretch.Not to worry,we’re heading in the right direction. |
 I think the multitude of baby step ratings with the brokers (and this is just my guess) is a way of letting them do a u-turn in a relatively short time without looking too daft.
At the end of the day they are only people (admittedly very bright people) who have to weigh up prospects based upon some guidance from the company and their own judgement / experience. They can get it wrong.
Two examples here at different ends of the scale:-
When Joe at HCW gave a strong buy rating with 2,400 target for OXB when OXB were nudging 1,600 the vaccine work was 24/7 and looked like it would go on for at least another year / 18 months (government plans led by international bodies) and the economy was going to "bounce straight back" (I've forgotten their analogy but of course it didn't). Joe ended up massively out of step with that one and we haven't heard from him for a bit. How do you get out of that without looking a bit foolish?
At the other end of the scale and a couple of years later, Numis have said that they think OXB are overconfident in what they claim, that the economy won't support it, the work isn't there (or similar words) and recently revised up to 180p.
So where Joe put a HCW note out where he saw a 50% upside and then watched the covid world collapse, Numis put a 12 month target price out recently which is now 50% lower than the market price.
How do Numis get out of this one? I suspect several small upward revisions in targets over time rather than just saying "whoops" and admitting £7 looks more like it. |
🙏 Harry |
Slide 29 Chillpill
So Euro 20m worth, at that price but a date of OXB's choosing.
The actual target amount is roughly 10% - as it says on the slide "IM intention to acquire €10m of OXB shares in market, targeting ~10% ownership overall (Ownership as of 15 April 2024: 6.3%)".
So presumably if the price is higher than will get them 3.7% with Euro 20m new shares then they will dip into the market? |
being asked well over the offer for a smallish quote - very odd indeed |
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