Has that feeling a few will sell out in the first hour or 2 and then go higher-just my hunch! |
Its a reassuring 'full steam ahead' with confirmation that the decks are scrubbed and bristol fashion post Homology.We clearly don't wish to slip back below 220p.The question and answer session will determine the days price move. |
It could just be a timing thing |
GJ - agreed, Harry has been stunned into silence :) |
All seems in line with expectations, no rabbit out of the hat. |
Fair assessment reddirish |
The 50% growth in the enquiries pipeline is encouraging: a question for the Q&A would be the current level of conversion from pipeline to order book . Reiterated guidance should be enough to underpin the current share price give or take 10-15%, though there is nothing else (so far) in my mind to prompt it further. We'll wait to hear what else might be indicated at the presentation later today. |
Splitting hairs here GH, but the results should be as already guided - so something like 90m sales and a 50m loss. The interesting bit is going to be 2024 guidance and whatever else they are up to / have been up to ;) |
Good luck all with results tomorrow |
Just shows how things change. In most past years today would have been rife with predictions covering a whole spread of possibilities for tomorrow - some a bit optimistic even by my standards.
2024 seems to be a year of tightened belts, and if Mrs Trellis has no spare money this year then it's not going into a punt on OXB is it? |
 I would be inclined to look at this the other way Dom. We understand that OXB have vectors for sale, and that if a partner choses our vector and process development then they are pretty much tied to us for manufacturing, but, we will also work on any partner's vector where they have no suitable production facility or just need more capacity - for instance the AZ AV in their vaccine wasn't our AV.
With that in mind, then for the CGT CDMO market to be $20bn by 2028 (remember that's CDMO fees, not total drug sales) then someone has to be making a lot of something and OXB are going to be at the front of that.
For the moment though I'm much more interested in Monday.
41 programmes at the interims in September. How many today, remembering that we recently inherited everything ABL had (including the one Phil found the other day)?
What will the guidance be for '24 now we have nearly a third of it in the bag?
Are they going to announce anything else (as per the Project Aquarius guidance at the interims)? |
Both I think Mr. President sir, sorry my mistake was saying 'lenti in a spray'. It was massive amounts of lenti for the liver. |
I thought that was cystic fibrosis Dom (the ongoing Boehringer Ingelheim partnership where they treat the first patients this summer). But it doesn't change the argument - that OXB are making a lot more money by selling shovels than they ever did finding their own gold. |
Was that not 3 years ago |
As I understood it, OXB were only responsible for the delivery using lenti in a spray. Not involved with the medication. |
That's a disappointment. We had heard positive things about how that was progressing. |
Ten years after dipping its toes into the gene therapy pool in a licensing deal with Spark Therapeutics, Pfizer has gained FDA approval for the acquired treatment.
The U.S. regulator has endorsed Beqvez (fidanacogene elaparvovec-dzkt) for adults with the bleeding disorder hemophilia B. It becomes the first FDA-approved gene therapy for Pfizer and the second in the indication following CSL and uniQure’s hemophilia B treatment Hemgenix, which became the world’s most expensive drug at $3.5 million when it was approved in 2022.
Pfizer had the chance to undercut its rival on price but decided to charge the same $3.5 million for Beqvez.
and for our younger viewers....
Sanofi parts ways with Oxford BioMedica on hemophilia tie-up inked by Bioverativ |
Looking better, good to see. |
I smell a Darktrace situation developing. |
M - You may have to be quick off the mark - or wait until the profit takers knock it back.
We're more than 30% off the bottom already. |
This is moving stealthily upwards
Haven't bought yet, waiting for Monday's results to see how the land lies but you can sense improvement rather than reversal |
Ssssssshhhhhhhh ..... |
Pleased you sorted it out and hopefully it's of some use.
Regarding the results on Monday and more importantly the reaction to them, then I'm hopeful that they will wake a lot of people up (not just the analysts of the covering brokers).
If you go back a year then we had just one broker rating OXB as a hold. After the interims it was 5 rating OXB as a hold. It's only just gone back to 4 with Stifel recently taking OXB off the naughty step, but the big show at the interims plainly put a lot of the analysts in "we'll wait and see" mode.
Can't really blame them. New CEO says £41m loss in '22, bigger loss in '23, but it ends at that and we save £30m per year from now on and by 2026 we will have at least doubled '23 revenue and be earning better than 20% EBITDA on that. It's a bold claim isn't it?
You all know I'm sold on the message, but even I admit that's quite a turnaround. Reassuringly, they have said a couple of times since that they are on track and hitting the targets. RBC seem convinced and are nudging ever closer to £8 with their 12 month target. Stifel are coming around to the idea but have a target of less than half that.
It's up to OXB now to convince the doubters on Monday.
I've convinced myself that Stuart has told us (without saying as much) that OXB's fixed costs for the business (UK, Boston, France, everything) is somewhere a little over £130m. I base that guess on bits from many releases and presentations, but I also think the "broadly breakeven" on £126m to £134m means that the actual cost is somewhere in that £8m spread where £126m is a small loss and £134m may even be a tiny profit.
The tantalising prospect here (if that guess is correct) is that anything Stuart hasn't put into that forecast (because he can't do "we're talking to and we might get" as a forecast) will change this year radically. OXB have already told us that they will no longer put legacy milestone payments into their forecasts - but we do still have a lot of legacy contracts of the royalty and milestone type. If one of those drops a milestone payment on a trial stage or an approval, then that's a big thing in a year which at the moment is "broadly breakeven".
Seb seems to be able to sell sand to the Arabs, but something late trial stage or commercial supply is worth a lot of money to us. Same goes for our regular guessing game about Serum and such. If we hear about one of those on Monday and suddenly it looks like we could be profitable again this year, then nobody in the market at the moment (including RBC) is forecasting that.
If what OXB suggested in that webcast is true (that we are the only pure CGT viral vector CDMO, with all the other major players simply doing CGT as just a small division of a much bigger business) then what happens if the predictions regarding the market size (see quote below) come true? Everyone else is going to see their CGT business unit stretched to capacity whilst OXB is going to see the whole company stretched to capacity. The gearing at that point would be phenomenal for OXB's revenue / earnings.
(quote)
Market Overview of Global CGT CDMO market: According to our latest research, the global CGT CDMO market looks promising in the next 5 years. As of 2022, the global CGT CDMO market was estimated at USD 4129.71 million, and it’s anticipated to reach USD 20489.61 million in 2028, with a CAGR of 30.6% during the forecast years. A contract development and manufacturing company (CDMO) is a company within the pharmaceutical industry that provides drug development and manufacturing services. Pharmaceutical companies partner with CDMOs as a way to outsource drug development and drug manufacturing. Cell and gene therapy (CGT) involves living cells, tissues, viral vectors and non-viral gene modification components. Its R&D technology and production process are more difficult than those of traditional biological drugs. CGT CDMO, as the upstream of CGT pharmaceutical companies, can help cell therapy companies overcome many difficulties in R&D and production while reducing costs, to improve R&D efficiency and enhance the commercialization success rate.
(unquote) |
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