looks like a positive finish. |
Try again boadicea.I had trouble at first but it loaded after awhile.Very useful Harry.I'm beginning to wonder whether there's anything you don't know about Oxford Biomedica! |
HST - Unfortunately all I get is "Investis Charts" and "Exchange information" in a large white space, neither of which activate a link. Rather odd.
Perhaps it's because you are certificated and on the register whereas I use a Nominee platform. Or maybe they're updating the page today? |
boadicea,
If you go to
And then click on "today" (rather than "history" which is the default), isn't that a snapshot of the orderbook?
(at the bottom of the page). |
Unfortunately the order book (which I cannot see) must be fairly unsupportive on the bid side and it looks like a delibertae attempt was made to knock the share price back with a single swipe (time 13:33:33) from 219.5p to 215.5p with a single sale of 4759 shares (appearing as 17 parcels on the trades page, lines 53 to 69). Looks like an attempt at price control - or am I becoming paranoid?
Otherwise, the chart in general looks in pretty good shape for a recovery bowl formation. This might be a more stable development than a spikey surge attracting short term traders who will subsequently hold us back. |
 If you want a shot in the dark Gareth, then I'm pretty certain that on many past years once we got within spitting distance of the results it all calmed down. It's almost like everybody has bought their tickets at that point and is just waiting for the ride to start.
So might be that again. If so then it wouldn't surprise me at all if tomorrow is dead.
(Now I've written that, we'll likely have two record days, but what can you do...).
All the planets are lined up for Monday being a very good day. The worst I can foresee is the press headlines concentrating on the '23 loss rather than the '24 onward forecast, which would of course be the complete opposite of what they did when we posted a huge earnings / profit year but said we were coming to the end of the AZ contract. That one is in the lap of the press gods.
I still think the very long notice of the results was to try to give them time to get something completed first. Of course if they didn't manage it then we'll never know, but I think a better than not chance that Frank is going to announce something to coincide with our biggest publicity day of the year. |
It's a public holiday where I am (Freedom Day) not sure if that's got anything to do with the lack of buyers? |
Where are the buyers today? Come on.. let's ave yer! |
Not today then..... |
Close over 200/221 should complete an ascending triangle reversal pattern and then a push significantly higher can be expected |
But with a bigger threshold they have more time before declaration or more to buy whilst staying under it - that's all I meant (but didn't type).
I've noticed before that the big trades (100k and 325k today) are usually marked "off book". Whether that means they just did it manually because it's unusually large / outside of the NMS I don't know.
A lot of these things we never find out. Maybe time will tell... |
Yes, I believe so, but I didn't specify a threshold, merely implying that this sort of volume is likely to lead to a declarable interest or at least a transition through some relevant threshold.
It might have been a sale, but the price has been going up, and that doesn't usually tend to happen when there's a seller of that size around. Note the time of the trade - advfn has now moved it back to its correct time of 14:40 when the bid/offer would have made it a clear buy.
I've been struck by how closely the sells and buys are tracking each other over the last couple of days, which implies that either there's a large seller who's matching the buys then showing it as a consolidated trade at end of day, or a buyer matching the sells. The latter looks more likely to me, but I claim no expertise in this area at all! |
If they are not British registered, isn't it 5% for a declaration rather than 3%?
I'm pretty sure I read that somewhere once.
Also it might have been a sale. 6 US institutional owners completely went last year (see list below from fintel) and all those sales had to go somewhere. Maybe just more of the same - but a really strange time to do it.
OWSMX - Old Westbury Small & Mid Cap Strategies Fund
QCSTRX - Stock Account Class R1
SSGVX - State Street Global Equity ex-U.S. Index Portfolio State Street Global All Cap Equity ex-U.S. Index Portfolio
ARHBX - Artisan International Explorer Fund Institutional Shares
FSISX - Fidelity SAI International Small Cap Index Fund
IXUS - iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF |
And another big trade - 325K shares - on top of the 250K yesterday. Listed as a sell, but looks like a buy to me. Has to be a TR-1 sooner or later. |
Should be able to Harry, a quick scan of the index and there are a few between 300/400m market cap, I believe we needed 650 when we entered last time. Bar is a lot lower. It could well accelerate our trajectory as you say once we are back in. |
Perhaps Phil, but I would have thought that on Monday they will make a very clear distinction between which new programmes are new work won by the sales team and which came as part of the ABL purchase.
If they don't do that then at the H1 results in September it might look like the rate of new work was tailing off.
I'm just passing time now and focussing on Monday morning, which of course we are all waiting for.
The big loss for '23 has already been telegraphed, but the interesting part is going to be the forecast for '24 with Q1 already closed.
My target for this year is still to get back into the FT250. I think they can achieve that on what they have forecast already, but they may need to post proof at the interims first. If something else new / big / half expected comes in on top of what we know then I think they will breeze it. |
Or it could be Frank just wanted to maximise the number of programs he could say they had, and most of them were coming in over the last two months. |
I don't understand how Numis justify their view. I know what their view is, as it was quoted in The Times, and they say (in many more words) that they don't think that OXB can do what their forecasts / projections say in this economy.
Then we have what OXB have told us:-
The cash position at 31 December 2023 was £103.7 million.
IM are putting in Euro 10m to fund the ABL transition.
I'm assuming that converting some of Boston to a US Lentivector hub isn't going to be cheap, but there were millions of that already spent last year.
£126 to £134 million in revenue this year with broadly breakeven EBITDA.
That's not a 180p per share valuation of £180m market cap on 100m shares vs £217m market cap today, which has long had me wondering where Numis are getting their ideas from as it doesn't seem to be OXB.
My theory floated here that Frank gave almost 2 months notice (when we normally get 2 or 3 weeks) was that it was either a Frank thing or that he was waiting for something which he would like to happen before the results.
I appreciate that's a bit like forecasting that it will either rain or go dark, but there is some precedent here from the interims that Frank likes to put on a good show.
So, if there is anything in that idea then 3 days for something to happen before, but it could also be signed now - ready to come out as a headline on Monday.
Yes this is a glass half full thing, but just like there could be a black swan event (with any company) there could also be a white swan event which changes everything for the better.
For the white swan event then what could we predict which we have already had OXB tell us half the story of?
Well whatever Serum want and the coded recent RNS about a new partner preparing for commercial supply would be 2 easy starters. |
Stifel:'With a primary focus on best execution, we operate solely for the interest of our clients with no proprietary trading.'This is pretty unusual nowadays and i find it very reassuring.Good research and advice to clients rather than working the book.it is odd that Stifel should put out a note ahead of updated guidance next Monday.Ordinarily the analyst concerned might be expected to liaise with Oxford Biomedica ahead of publication,establish and refine certain points etc.Anyway i'm inclined to interpret the timing of Stifel's buy recommendation as reassuring ahead of the prelims....as has the market given recent price strength. |
We know from Phil's link the other day that OXB had hosted Peel Hunt (previous house broker) with a site tour / charm offensive. To me it would seem very odd if only PH had received that invitation / courtesy.
RBC (new house broker) have updated recently, but that I would expect - as surely it's part of their job to sell OXB to the market.
More puzzling for me is why Stifel and now PG have updated literally days before the results where OXB provide full disclosure of figures, prospects and are open to the analysts in a much more detailed briefing than we get to see / hear in the webcast call on results day.
So why have 2 of them updated just before, rather than waiting a week and reporting based upon the full results?
My only explanation (aka guess) is that both realised that the previous view of hold / wait for the big post-covid cash burn period to end has quite obviously happened now, and that they don't want to look too far out of step when they put a full note out after the results.
I think we are still anchored by Numis with their recent 180p target which to my mind bears no relation to anything OXB have said publicly, but hopefully Monday will make Numis look irrelevant. |
No I don’t but reported on Bloomberg. |
cp
Do you have a link fella? |
Register for streaming realtime charts, analysis tools, and prices.
Hot Features
Premium
