Currently relieved that I wagered Dom's pound and not my own.
9 trading days left before the results. |
Yes H, I think In-vivo and gene editing are the next big advances.
Our findings demonstrate that the T-Charge™ manufacturing platform successfully maintains highly heterogeneous transduced Tscm clones with self-renewal potential in durcabtagene autoleucel products. Maintenance of Tscm in manufactured products contributes to robust CAR-T expansion and long-term persistence of CAR-T cells with a highly diverse TCR repertoire after infusion.
Traditional CAR T-cell manufacturing requires extended ex vivo cell culture, reducing naive and stem cell memory T-cell populations and diminishing antitumor activity. YTB323, which expresses the same validated CAR as tisagenlecleucel, can be manufactured in <2 days while retaining T-cell stemness and enhancing clinical activity at a 25-fold lower dose.
top 20 pharma companies by 2023 revenue |
Another strange day. 3,707 shares traded as I type, but I'd bet a pound of Dom's money that its somewhere near to 200k in total at the end of the day.
Hopefully a fortnight today will be a much more interesting day. |
 I guess at some point (if CAR-T is to become mainstream and not the treatment of last resort - or next to last resort) then it either has to move to an outpatient setting or they need to build more facilities.
Maybe you remember this, but we are involved with T-Charge (Novartis) which is a CAR-T drug in current trials, which is grown on inside the patient (not a bioreactor).
My understanding / recollection from the time is that instead of the modified T-Cells being grown on in a warm bioreactor until there are a huge number to purify and infuse back into the patient as one massive assault, they infuse a much smaller number directly into the patient and do it sooner than would normally be possible.
The cells then multiply on inside the patient whilst looking for the target they have been programmed (with LentiVector) to kill.
If this works out in trials then not only is the patient less poorly at infusion time because of having to wait less time for the product, but the common "storm" reaction when the immune system is suddenly "switched on" (by T-Cells which can "see" the enemy) is much milder because the patient is given many less modified T-Cells.
Might not be 100% there, but that's the general gist of it and Novartis see T-Charge as replacing Kymriah with a simpler / quicker process which is easier on the patients - so I would assume that means outpatient. A while to wait yet for T-Charge though. |
Interesting and comprehensive article regarding a shift in thinking regarding in- outpatient Car-T planned treatments versus inpatient treatments-should improve no. of future treatments offered significantly and the healthcare provider bottom line -which in turn will offer more treatments and so on |
https://chi.scholasticahq.com/article/115793 |
Another great find Phil.
Aside from the interesting content there, I'd suggest that video also tells us that we are still on excellent terms with both Miles and Peel Hunt (the previous house broker and analyst of course) which is good to see.
I wonder if this was instigated by a request from PH or if there has been some kind of charm offensive going on with all the covering brokers? I'm thinking the latter but I guess we will never know the answer to that one.
I think another very positive sign is the link with the US team visiting - everything everywhere as Frank (in his Cadbury's milk tray man outfit) might say. |
Inside Windrush court:
Other links of interest |
Make of it what you will but you can currently buy 25000 shares at 208.5 on quote and deal.That’s quite chunky for OXB.There’s stock about. |
It's far from clear Dom (imho) and if that regular seller is still with us, then did they really just have a day off yesterday?
Just to give the stuck record another airing, I think the 2023 results presentation (which, the way these things work, is really the first proper 2024 presentation) is the elephant in the room here.
We said that would be on us before we knew it and of course it's a fortnight on Monday now.
Put in other words, only 10 working days for OXB to announce something now if there is anything in my theory that they gave an unusually long notice of the results this year because they wanted to announce something before the presentation...
That aside, we have the obvious mismatch of what OXB have said they are going to present and what the covering analysts (and the market) think reality is.
Where does that leave us? Nobody knows yet.
6 weeks ago Stuart said that 2024 revenue will be £126m to £134m.
Perhaps more pertinent is that 2025 is indicated as better than £170m to £181m, which would be our record best ever year and unlike during covid we would not have 87% of our work in one customer contract.
What will happen? Who knows, but a fortnight will very quickly pass and then we have this quite odd situation where the company has stopped burning money on operations and is already looking at projections of next year's record earnings, whilst trading on a little more than a tenth of our 3 year high share price. |
We still have a seller then! |
Back down for now.
Any boost if we get one will probably be around mid-afternoon. |
Another building block from NICE. All helps and the more Kymriah is used the more acceptable it will become and the more revenue for OXB. |
As I recall (so there's your warning) it was approved back in 2018, but only in very specific circumstances. What PB has found there is that they now plan to treat with it routinely - as per this same story from a different site:-
As for was this the news that I thought OXB might be trying to time to get in before the results? No. |
Harry, is that new news in terms of positive for the share price and not specifically expected right now i.e. might help the share price a little given how stuck we have been. Not seeing any numbers makes it hard to guage.. |
Winner of today's observer badge award for spotting that one PB.
It all helps in this rolling snowball known as OXB's revenue.
Obviously more vector to be made, but as I'm sure you remember we have a royalty on sales for Kymriah, so every sale notches that up.
JD at the time said words to the effect that it's a very small percentage, but that a very small percentage of a very big number is still a lot of money. |
Good newsHTTps://www.precisionmedicineonline.com/regulatory-news-fda-approvals/nice-recommends-novartis-kymriah-pediatric-acute-lymphoblastic |
In fact I just read the comments and one says it's on a price to sales ratio of 153.
Remember my point that average CDMO is 5.5 and OXB is currently less than 2.
(Just for comparison). |
Funnily enough I was corresponding with my spirit guide about exactly this story yesterday.
If that company has been listed for 17 years and their latest figures are sales of £200,000 in the six months to the end of July and a £5.6m loss, then their main or underlying problem isn't the stock market is it?
Unfortunately all the media outlets do this to try to support any current running story, which is why you'll note the BBC "occasionally" linking some really unrelated things to climate change (to give one popular example). |
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/10/london-markets-broken-closed-pharma-boss/not directly aimed at us - but many here can only have empathy I suspecthoping this time is 3rd time lucky to push above 120p barrier :)lot of patience needed here especially when you hold a fair few |
Today's volume was extremely unusual though PB, with only 4,000 shares traded by early afternoon (it has picked up now to 30k or something), but of late a normal day for OXB is something around 100k in the morning and the same again by close. That suggests to me that our forced seller is finished (for now) and that everybody else is sat on their hands waiting for the results.
Should be an interesting end to the month. Not the loss for 2023 and such (which we all of course know about already) but the forecast for 2024 and 2025.
By the nature of our work (how long it takes and end invoiced) even though the order book value increases all of the time, OXB will have a very good idea by the end of month 4 of the amount of work they will be able to complete and invoice for this year.
Yes exceptional things could happen both ways, but I'm guessing that Stuart will give a spread of figures for 2024 with something like 85% confidence and that those figures will be nothing like the broker consensus. What will happen then? |
Some traders / market makers leave silly buy/ sell prices on the books overnight. In the hope that some clown takes the bait.As day trading begins, then sensible folk ask/ put sensible prices.The gap narrows. |
The equity spread reflects the stocks liquidity.OXB is a thinly traded stock hence the relatively wide nominal spread .The ‘touch’ might narrow after an hour or two of trading as the MMs shuffle those spreads.SEAQ trading predominated when i was in the markets but the SETS system can only do so much.In the absence of a relatively liquid market (where there are active buyers and sellers who can be matched up)marketmakers will have to step in to facilitate trades especially those that exceed normal market size NMS.Fund managers are necessarily nervous of taking large positions in illiquid stocks unless they are running a specialist fund,they can suffer the ‘Hotel Calfornia’ conundrum ie you can check in anytime you want but you can never leave.Traders in the market will generally avail themselves of level 2 access so they can get a detailed view of what is going on behind the scenes,something close to a marketmakers birds eye view.
PS OXB must wonder why it pays handsome annual fees to be listed on the LSE when it attracts such little day to day investor interest and thats despite having heavyweights like Novo and entities like IMT as large shareholders.These sort of experiences are prompting the exodus to foreign listings and going private. |
I know a little bit about OXB, but next to nothing about how the market works.
I do know that OXB is a main market SETS stock and so supposedly not at the whim of the people who make the markets on less liquid / non-main market stocks. In other words it should just be what it is - i.e. no shenanigans.
A little used feature on the OXB website is the almost hidden link where you can see the LSE order book.
So, go to and above the chart click "today" rather than "history" which is the default. Once you click that then right at the bottom of the page is the order book depth which changes all the time.
OXB pay money for us to be able to see that, but I've honestly never found a use for knowing that say (as I type this) there's one order with 6,364 on the bid at 200p.
Go to the book viewer for the European exchanges
Type OXB in the box there, and you can toggle through CXE, DXE and so on seeing the same thing.
I realise this doesn't answer your question, but as I mentioned the other day - we are in this odd pre-results period now where we are all expecting big things on the 29th, but something may or may not happen before. That will be true for people who do this for a living too - it's an unclear / uncertain period. |
I've puzzled the same question, with no answer... |
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