Osb Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 09/7/2023 17:54

There's clearly been an unusual change of behaviour in the short term, but whether this can be extrapolated into the future is another matter. The more I think about it, this write down does feel like it's been driven by some rather prescriptive accounting rules and suspect the actual impact might not be as big as first indicated (similar to how banks posted huge upfront impairments during Covid, but which never materialised and where later reversed). Either way, the capital position remains strong, underlying business is doing well and the valuation is now exceptionally cheap.

[jonnybig] 08/7/2023 18:02

Can see a strong bounce Monday onwards, back over 4 quid come the interims, fall well over done. I don't think anyone fully understood the update!

[porsche1945] 08/7/2023 10:53

Can’t think why anybody would be holding shares in a buy to let specialist mortgage provider going into a 7/8 year downward housing cycle that has been flagged for over 10 months…. I sold this 14 months ago thank god. Can see this needing to raise capital before this is over, more capital destructive dividend rubbish. Buy US quality mega cap growth and short dated treasuries if you want capital growth plus income, brexit basket case U.K. is especially fxcked, in terminal high speed decline.

[rcturner2] 08/7/2023 04:56

Well I was out all day yesterday and came back to this dent in my portfolio.

If anyone had any doubt of the state of the market then this reaction to the bad news should clear that up.

I don't have anything to add over the various sensible posts on here. Time will tell whether this a bargain or whether they are in the wrong sector at the wrong time and things wil get worse.

[aishah] 07/7/2023 23:27

Tough at the moment. Market is very unforgiving. Long way back here I fear

[rbewes] 07/7/2023 19:49

ffs I only bought these Tuesday.

[babbler] 07/7/2023 13:34

Support aroind 3.20 and stop below that.

[74tom] 07/7/2023 12:52

Wow, getting crushed now. Largest holders are standard life (25m), Jupiter (22m) and GLG partners (Man group, 22m). Total volume just 3.2m… you have to think one of those 3 will want to protect their position, but little sign on the order book so far.

[1johntrading] 07/7/2023 12:20

Started to recover and then heading back.doen again.

[altered carbon] 07/7/2023 11:46

I took 8K shares. That's massive cut on small volume for a 180m cut on NAV. More than 500m wiped out on 2m shares traded.

[babbler] 07/7/2023 11:00

Huge trade cleared. Should bounce now.

[petersinthemarket] 07/7/2023 11:00

Gross over reaction - buying op.

[riverman77] 07/7/2023 10:25

Yes I should have been clearer and said a big adjustment to the loan book relative to the NAV. Looks like Numis are putting this under review while they crunch the numbers and consider the impact.

[jonnybig] 07/7/2023 09:41

As I understand it, it's not so much a write off just how they recognise the revenue which is substantially deferred. But it does look like there's been a balls up in previous calculations because of the size of the adjustment.

Less than a tenth of shares traded so far yet a 25% hit on the share price Seems well over sold. But market petrified of banks at the mo with talk of mass repossessions as well as the silicon Valley fiasco.

Matter of holding your nerve and not panic selling. Still worth well over 2 billion imo. GLA.

[74tom] 07/7/2023 09:13

Your statement was; ‘it’s a big adjustment to the loan book’ you did not say to NAV!

But sure, it’ll likely mean NAV stands still this year assuming they maintain dividends at last years 30p a share;

NAV at 31/12/22 - £2.2b
NAV at 31/12/21 - £2.02b

Of course more could change - we don’t know enough about how prudent / aggressive their accounting practices are to be able to make a judgement. Today’s news has certainly surprised the market & I suspect the reaction may be more to do with what else may be lurking / get broken by the current generational change in interest rates. A very stark reminder of why bank shares are so dangerous in the current climate.

[big momma] 07/7/2023 09:11

Is div 40p? that's 11.2% yield?

[riverman77] 07/7/2023 09:10

Yes I agree they look very cheap now, but not altogether surprised with the fall. The question is when to get back in, as could remain volatile for a while.

[big momma] 07/7/2023 09:04

Low volume with bots layering.

[big momma] 07/7/2023 09:02

500m valuation off with such small lost compare to loan book and bot with small trades hammering bid side with the layering.

Sets vol 615K shares.

[lord gnome] 07/7/2023 08:58

Interims due 10th August. This adjustment will have come to light during their preparation.

[riverman77] 07/7/2023 08:56

It's an 8% hit to NAV - I'd say that's a pretty big adjustment! You're confusing loan book with net assets (which is basically the difference between the loan book and the deposits, and a much smaller figure). Also brings their underwriting abilities into question so can see why market is alarmed.

[lord gnome] 07/7/2023 08:56

As I understand it, it will impact free cash flow / income over the next five years, so £30 millions per year. The company can stand this as long as it is a one-off, but this sort of event shakes the market's faith in management.