Osb Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 07/7/2023 11:25

Yes I should have been clearer and said a big adjustment to the loan book relative to the NAV. Looks like Numis are putting this under review while they crunch the numbers and consider the impact.

[jonnybig] 07/7/2023 10:41

As I understand it, it's not so much a write off just how they recognise the revenue which is substantially deferred. But it does look like there's been a balls up in previous calculations because of the size of the adjustment.

Less than a tenth of shares traded so far yet a 25% hit on the share price Seems well over sold. But market petrified of banks at the mo with talk of mass repossessions as well as the silicon Valley fiasco.

Matter of holding your nerve and not panic selling. Still worth well over 2 billion imo. GLA.

[74tom] 07/7/2023 10:13

Your statement was; ‘it’s a big adjustment to the loan book’ you did not say to NAV!

But sure, it’ll likely mean NAV stands still this year assuming they maintain dividends at last years 30p a share;

NAV at 31/12/22 - £2.2b
NAV at 31/12/21 - £2.02b

Of course more could change - we don’t know enough about how prudent / aggressive their accounting practices are to be able to make a judgement. Today’s news has certainly surprised the market & I suspect the reaction may be more to do with what else may be lurking / get broken by the current generational change in interest rates. A very stark reminder of why bank shares are so dangerous in the current climate.

[big momma] 07/7/2023 10:11

Is div 40p? that's 11.2% yield?

[riverman77] 07/7/2023 10:10

Yes I agree they look very cheap now, but not altogether surprised with the fall. The question is when to get back in, as could remain volatile for a while.

[big momma] 07/7/2023 10:04

Low volume with bots layering.

[big momma] 07/7/2023 10:02

500m valuation off with such small lost compare to loan book and bot with small trades hammering bid side with the layering.

Sets vol 615K shares.

[lord gnome] 07/7/2023 09:58

Interims due 10th August. This adjustment will have come to light during their preparation.

[riverman77] 07/7/2023 09:56

It's an 8% hit to NAV - I'd say that's a pretty big adjustment! You're confusing loan book with net assets (which is basically the difference between the loan book and the deposits, and a much smaller figure). Also brings their underwriting abilities into question so can see why market is alarmed.

[lord gnome] 07/7/2023 09:56

As I understand it, it will impact free cash flow / income over the next five years, so £30 millions per year. The company can stand this as long as it is a one-off, but this sort of event shakes the market's faith in management.

[74tom] 07/7/2023 09:53

How’s it a big adjustment vs a £23b loan book at 31/12 that grew at 7%? (So is presumably now ~£24.5m). I’s less than 0.5%… No cash impact either.

£500m knocked off the valuation seems a bit OTT, especially as it was on a PE of 4.5x before today & that change doesn’t impact underlying earnings or FCF…

[riverman77] 07/7/2023 09:03

It is a big adjustment to the loan book - 160 to 180m. The question is if this is just a one off or we could see more write downs.

[lord gnome] 07/7/2023 08:35

Brutal market reaction. I don’t think anyone saw that coming. Hopefully this is a one-off event - hopefully!

[lord gnome] 07/7/2023 08:12

Post 1194 hasn’t aged well. Oops,

[deadly] 04/7/2023 08:42

So-called trading statement today mis-labelled:actually share transactions.

[pj84] 13/6/2023 22:05

"OSB ‘cheap’ after mini banking crisis, says CT’s Webster

One Savings Bank (OSB) remains ‘cheap’ after the selloff in banking stocks in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US, says Columbia Threadneedle’s Philip Webster.

Webster has nudged the Citywire Elite Companies AAA-rated challenger bank into the top-10 holdings of his CT UK High Income (CHI) trust, where it makes up 3.5% of the £119m portfolio.

Yesterday Citywire revealed OSB was the favourite UK bank of top fund managers.

‘Having added to One Savings Bank following the Silicon Valley Bank selloff, it has had a nice bounce on the back of a solid set of results,’ he said.

‘It saw first-quarter loan growth of 3% and has raised the full-year 2023 guidance from 5% to 7%. It has managed to deliver this against expectations of flat margins and cost-income ratio flat at 2%.’

Webster said it was also ‘very pleasing to note that losses have also been benign’.

‘With a price-to-earnings ratio of five times, and a 7% ordinary dividend yield, this remains cheap,’ he said.

The shares rose 0.8%, or 4p, to 529.5p on Monday."

[1318myl] 09/6/2023 11:08

Many thanks for the info

[rcturner2] 09/6/2023 07:31

On the 3rd of May they said:

Trading update

OSB GROUP PLC (OSBG or the Group), the specialist lending and retail savings group, today issues its trading update for the period from 1 January 2023 to date.

Highlights

-- Strong financial and operational performance continued throughout the
first quarter

-- Organic originations of GBP1.2bn in the first three months of 2023 (Q1
2022: GBP1.1bn)

-- Underlying1 and statutory net loans and advances increased by 3% in the
first quarter to GBP24.2bn (31 December 2022: GBP23.5bn and GBP23.6bn,
respectively)

-- The Group's three months plus arrears balances remained stable at 1.1% as
at 31 March 2023 (31 December 2022: 1.1%)
-- The Group has repurchased GBP20.1m worth of shares at the end of April
under the GBP150m share repurchase programme

[1318myl] 08/6/2023 13:27

Hi all, does anyone know when OSB will announce the next update? Hopefully it will be good or as good as the Paragon update.

[thebutler] 06/6/2023 09:35

Good update by peer Paragon, filtering through to here.

[rcturner2] 06/6/2023 09:04

Still going well.

Rated a "super stock" on Stockopedia, stock rank of 91.

[thamestrader] 17/5/2023 10:25

Nice divi, thanks OSB

[apple53] 17/5/2023 09:46

PEG ratios don't normally work for banks. The big swing factor is normally provisioning, which is normally low ex-post, while any analyst worth his/her salt will have provisions (at least) 'normalising' (ie to cross-cycle levels) over the next year or two, which will inherently depress the eps growth rate. However, as long as analysts do this then the forward PE (let's say 2024-5) should be a good indication of underlying value. And with OSB's super low cost income ratio one can even put provision charges on 50% above cross-cycle to allow for some housing market challenges, and it will still be ridiculously cheap.

For me the challenge is allocating cash across the bank sector as they are all so cheap. I think STB is cheapest below £7 so my largest holding, but a decent bounce and I would shift a chunk to OSB (while keeping an eye on Virgin and even Barclays).

I'd say OSB is the most bullet proof listed financial in the UK in terms of earnings (not share price, since market doesn't get this). Check out where financials' shares are vs Covid low. All bounced like crazy but on a quick check I think OSB has done best (in holding on to its rebound).

[brucie5] 15/5/2023 09:40

RC, Thanks.