Osb Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 09/1/2017 17:02

No, that's not it. OSB is a great place to park capital, but also very volatile, I trade it when I see opportunity, the graph has made it easy.I have other stocks I want more exposure to, so it's a juggling act. GMS is one of those.The shares I trade I move my stops up when in profit, I don't fight the market these days. Pity sometimes, I lost out on G4M because of triggered stops, but overall it works for me.

[mazarin] 09/1/2017 17:00

There have been many times that I could have sold at higher price, but only ever really been sure I should have done so, 'after the event'. Equally there have been many times I've sold only to see it rise. I call it 'seller's remorse'.

[uhound] 09/1/2017 16:49

Sounds like you panicked to me!

[che7win] 09/1/2017 16:28

I like to trade around the edges Uhound, hope you're banked your profit.

[uhound] 09/1/2017 16:15

Che7win, why you now selling? Based on your recent posts I thought you'd be adding!

[che7win] 09/1/2017 15:42

Maz, I sold 6000 shares earlier on, bought 1573 back, it's volatile.

[mazarin] 09/1/2017 14:10

Who needs an in-house Analyst when we've got chew7win to do the leg work..? Well done, keep'em coming.

Edit: Within minutes of making this comment there's more 'shenanigans' going on again with the s.p

[che7win] 09/1/2017 13:43

IN THE KNOW: OneSavings Can Boost Dividend Rate In 2017 - InvestecSource: Alliance NewsOneSavings Bank's share price is at an attractive entry point following a dip in the past month while its peers rallied, said Investec...

[che7win] 07/1/2017 10:16

Liberum have a 395p target:Date Stock Person Rating Target Market13/12/2016 OneSavings Portia Patel Buy 395p 0p ? 1OneSavings Bank was also on the front foot as Liberum initiated coverage of a number of challenger banks, highlighting its preference for OSB, which it started at 'buy'.It said OneSavings is making regulatory change in the buy-to-let market work in its favour."Our buy-to-let matrix shows that it is the most positively geared to the fastest growing segments, namely corporate and multi-property landlords, of its peers. Advantageous market positioning, a risk management track record as strong as its peers and a rising CET1 capital ratio make OSB's 10% valuation discount to the peer group average."

[uhound] 05/1/2017 12:56

Future Financier,

All looks to be an interesting time ahead whichever way we think the market is heading.

Thanks for the prelim date.

[che7win] 05/1/2017 12:31

It's just not as simple as the housing market or btl slowing down or legislation changes from what I hear OSB is leveraging their offerings off that. OSB is a relatively small and nimble bank and can grow its market share.

That's what the challenger banks are doing, look at the margins, when they are borrowing money from the tax payer at 0.25% to lend elsewhere, that is a massive margin to make money off:

"Overall the bank is forecasting growth of 10pc in the buy-to-let market in 2017, down from earlier predictions of 12pc growth.

“It is a function of housing demand versus a lack of housing, and therefore the private rental sector has to continue to play its part,” said Mr Golding.

“People are worried about house prices, but if prices come off a little bit in some of the more expensive areas, we don’t think that is a bad thing anyway. And if the new purchase market, the first-time buyer and home-mover market, slows a little bit, the private rental market will do well out of that because more people will rent for a bit while they wait to see what happens.”

Profits totalled £100m in the first half of the year, more than double the £46.6m in the same period of 2015.

The bank’s loan book grew by 17.4pc to £5.4bn while earnings per share doubled to 30.2p, enabling it to increase the dividend by 45pc to 2.9p.

Mr Golding also plans to take full advantage of the new Term Funding Scheme from the Bank of England, under which banks can borrow at just 0.25pc. That will slash its funding costs and lower interest rates on loans."

[future financier] 05/1/2017 12:03

UHOUND - again not just trying to "score points" but just seen this in the mortgage press "Buy-to-let applications made through limited companies surged at the end of the year, according to data from Mortgages for Business.

The firm’s Limited Company Buy to Let Index shows that 69 per cent of total purchase applications made in Q4 2016 were made through limited companies, up 6 per cent on Q3.

This is substantially higher than the 21 per cent recorded before the changes to tax relief on mortgage interest were unveiled by former chancellor George Osborne in July 2015".

So whilst this does not give absolute values for Ltd co mortgages, clearly someone is very bullish about the Ltd co market. And my point about the "individual" market is that I believe that OSB's share of that was very small (as opposed to Ltd company where it was always a significant player), so Ltd Company might have gone from 100 to say 200 and "individual" business from say 150 to 75 - but that would still leave OSB ahead.

The other factor is that most business comes from re-mortgages - and people with existing BTLs are stuck with the new tax rules - and as yet there is virtually no sign of landlords selling up.

Will have prelim for full year on 16 March - and I for one would not want to be short at that time. Although in March 2019 it could be a different thing entirely!

[che7win] 05/1/2017 11:36

Thanks Uhound, Interesting angle, if these were at a double digit P/E (e.g. 15) equals share price 600p, I would be aligned with you.Genuinely appreciate your insight.

[uhound] 05/1/2017 11:13

Che7win,

I'm not here to wind anyone up - I'm just posting my view on this company on the OSB board. I hope everyone profits from their trading.

First let me point out that I am a professional property investor myself - trading is only a sideline!

Take it from me ALL lending to landlords weather professional or amature is down significantly.

True that Lending to LTD companies for BTL has increased - simply because some landlords think this is the way to go to get round the new taxation changes. But as an example - if you previously lent to 100 LTD companies and now you lend to 150 Ltd companies you can say we are seeing an 50% increase.
However, if you were lending to 1000 individuals and now your only lending to 100 for the same period, then overall you're down - a lot!

OSB report figures to September 2016 - interestingly it's from November 2016 where lending applications have dropped like a stone.

There are other hurdles which will affect HMO's and lending in general which I don't have time to explain.

Like I say the next set of results will make us better informed.

You are right we are in a bit of a bull market of late for banks - so my timing may be off. Initially I thought 400p was an area to short, but once it went from 370 to 330 I thought any resistance around 345 may result in further declines hence my entry.

If I get stopped out I'll look again for any signs of weakness before a trading update.

Anyway, good luck to all with their trading.

[che7win] 05/1/2017 10:27

Uhound, I commend your honesty here and your view should not be ignored. OSB concentrates on 'professional' btl market. If you listen to their presentation, they are very adapt to changes and their USP is that the work with brokers and btl professionals at a service level which big banks simply don't do.You mention timing, the problem for the bear case is that the whole sector is rising and OSB pessimism was way over the top. That's why I'm here, it's still only at a P/E of 8 and the company announcement pretty much nails on continued growth in 2017.See the last comment below, you make fair points but my view is your timing is off and you are going against a bullish market here. Double digit growth against a P/E of 8:Trading update OneSavings Bank plc ('OSB'), the specialist lending and retail savings group, today issues its trading update for the period from the 1(st) July 2016 to date. Highlights -- Strong financial and operational performance has continued in line with management expectations. -- Underlying loan book growth of 13% for the nine months to September 2016, excluding the impact of the Rochester disposal of c. GBP220m of mortgages. Net loans & advances grew by GBP466m to GBP5.6bn during the period. -- Margins on GBP510m of organic origination in the third quarter remained strong. Net interest margin to the end of the third quarter continued to be in line with our expectations. -- OSB completed the purchase of a first charge residential mortgage portfolio of c. GBP60m on October 31 2016, at a discount to par. The mortgages are predominantly owner occupied and well diversified across the UK. -- The Group has drawn GBP626m under the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) to date and intends to commence drawing from the new Term Funding Scheme (TFS) during the fourth quarter. This complements our long-term retail savings franchise. -- Business growth continues to be supported by a strong capital position. Andy Golding, CEO of OneSavings Bank, said: "I am extremely pleased with the performance of the business this year. Application levels for the second half to date are significantly in excess of the first half and our pipeline of new business is at a record level. This means we remain confident of achieving our net loan book growth target for this year and double-digit growth into 2017."

[future financier] 05/1/2017 10:19

UHOUND - whilst BTL as a whole has been hit hard by the tax changes there are some sectors that are doing well. The main BTL "losers" are the simple BTLs owned by private individuals - this was never OSB's marketplace. There has been an expansion in the market for BTL properties owned within a limited company - and this is OSB's market whereas several "mainstream" BTL lenders do not have the systems or staff to handle these. So those lenders such as OSB's brands that can handle limited companies are doing very nicely - and should continue to do so. Likewise more complex BTL properties such as HMOs.

I agree about the risks posed by interest rates cannot be ignored - but I think that OSB is currently in a pretty good place.

[uhound] 05/1/2017 09:41

As ever it's all about timing your entry and exits!

[uhound] 05/1/2017 09:40

Che7win,

To me, they will be losing business from the decline in "Buy to Let" lending which I understand to be a large area for them. Also general property lending.

Mortgage lending for BTL is declining rapidly - Brokers reports.
They are South East focused which is being hit the most and their rates are not the best anyway, so unlikely to gain market share.

Interest rates can't go up much otherwise people will default on credit/home loans etc - which will have a knock on effect on lenders.

I guess the next trading updates will paint a clearer picture.

[che7win] 05/1/2017 09:26

Uhound, From 260p level upwards, I did trade a few back in June though around 196p level. Have bought some recently.To me, they are on a current P/E of 8 and the whole sector is rising, they look like they should rise to minimum 400p level, margins will improve for banks if interest rates rise which is why the sector is rising.

[uhound] 05/1/2017 09:23

Che7win, what price did you manage to buy these for?

Good luck with your investment.

[che7win] 05/1/2017 08:52

Uhound, 5 figure no. shares owned here currently.

[uhound] 05/1/2017 08:01

Che7win, went short at 337p - £20pt - Stop at 362. In case I'm wrong!

What you in for?

[bamboo2] 04/1/2017 22:19

Hi mazarin, I'm still learning!

che7, yes understand your ladder idea, it def has validity here. I used to do a lot of charts with parallel trendlines, and they work well with line charts. I find with candlesticks it's better to have the real angles produced by following the wicks. Triangle and wedge apexes [marked by red vertical lines] have become a fascination for me... how they point to trend changes, even after the price has moved on. It is uncanny.