Orchard Funding Share Discussion Threads

[valueman94] 11/7/2024 12:47

I wouldn’t trust Peter to drive me to work never mind lead a meeting. He’d have us selling our shares to his mate Ravi.

[muffster] 11/7/2024 11:43

Keep buying 97P to average down.Then call EGM

[davidosh] 11/7/2024 11:33

97peter....Not sure what your yearly average is all about but certainly interested in your EGM idea.

I think holders with 5% of the share register can call an EGM so with 400k shares and alongside Stuart Hawthorne or others with similar amounts then you are in the driving seat to call one.

What are the items you are putting on the EGM agenda?

[97peter] 11/7/2024 08:54

Yearly average is now down to 42p. The way the share price is currently hovering around 31-32p even as low as 30p, within 4 months the average will be down to 34p.? So guess what the offer could be as low as 36p!!!!!
There needs to be an extra-ordinary AGM for MM and PI’s to ask Ravi and the BoD some serious questions, plans and future growth issues??

[valueman94] 10/7/2024 16:06

I thought you were waiting for 44p?:


24/5/2024

Konradpuss you are
19:18
totally wrong I have not sold or bought any shares in over 6 months. I am totally just sitting on the fence waiting like other Long term holders, I have 400,000 shares as at 6 months ago and will just wait for 44p then sell on offer!!
Simple as !!

Oh wait no it was 40p:

18/4/2024
21:56
97 peter: All- If and big IF, Ravi after review decides to take the company private, he has 56%, other relatives
8-10% and the MM's will vote with him to purchase all other shares I believe at an offer price of 40p, if he gets the vote all holders will then be bought out at 40p, no minnow holders, holding on. See LSE and
FCA rules.!

I really can’t keep up with it.

[97peter] 10/7/2024 15:17

Or it could be PI’s like Playful and others selling and moving on? I am more than happy to sit with 400,000 shares with an average of 36p and await the 40p offer and take it and vote yes!!

[97peter] 10/7/2024 15:00

That is only if they move by 1% for the MM’s. If they sell small amounts which do not move them for example from 5% to 4%. Plus the average for 12 months is slippping down to almost 35p by August. Maybe a tender offer at 36p in September??

[valueman94] 10/7/2024 14:34

Hahaha good one Kon. Holding Orchard wouldn’t be the same without Peter. If the institutions were selling they would have to file a notice with the fca, who would then inform the company and the company would have to report on their regulatory news for everyone to see. No majority owned shareholders have sold their stakes down as of this moment.

[konradpuss] 10/7/2024 11:30

Peter, could you do us a favour and post up the draft of the offer document?

[unglove] 10/7/2024 11:04

Hi 97Peter, the company is doing better than expected (as you mention) as per recent RNS. Therefore, come December report the share price might increase. My reason for suggesting buyout in Autumn is that share price is in doldrums and they can probably buyout for less. I think many PIs as well as institutional investors buy and sell in 10000-20000 aliquots. I do. Liquidity is minimal currently with tiny volumes in terms of monetary value.Reasons for buyout not to go ahead would be major re-rating of share price or loss of support of institutional investors and this seems unlikely. If the buyout did not go ahead then I would expect a much higher dividend to try and obtain new investors.Your predictions were very precise and would be interested in your reasoning.

[97peter] 10/7/2024 10:19

Unglove - - I don’t see any buyout before 2025. The company is doing well besides a few hiccups. It is growing and new clients, areas of the market. I see 2 scenarios:

1. Divi of 1p starts again in December?

2. An offer of 39p to the markets in February 2925.

Other than that it is business as usual.

Over the last few months all I see are the MM’s / Investment companies slowly selling chunks of 30,000 and 20,000 shares off at 31p. Slowly getting out of the market.

[unglove] 02/7/2024 15:23

@OrchardHolder, I did buy a few just under 30p and will just wait and see what happens. My guess fwiw is similar to yours and that unless re-rating there will be a buyout announced in the autumn.

[orchardholder] 25/6/2024 11:26

@unglove
Fair point, that could also be the case - thanks for pointing that out.
And thinking about it more, you are probably right. If the takeover was off the table, they would probably have also mentioned it in this trading update.

So, I guess more of the same: waiting (but with more confidence in the operations). I still only see two realistic scenarios:
1. The company will remain listed, paying 4-10p dividend per year (gradually increasing dividend as growth slows down)
2. The company will be taken private between 40p and 80p

The downside remains incredibly limited, while these two "upside" scenarios are extremely likely.

[unglove] 25/6/2024 11:12

Possibly peer pressure but also if there is a takeout then would not want to be sued for not divulging important, price sensitive information.

[konradpuss] 25/6/2024 10:57

Maybe their nominated advisor and/or the non-exec. Ketan Malde (probably another Ravi crony) put pressure on Ravi.

[unglove] 25/6/2024 10:33

Are you sure that he didn't have to provide this update? Previous RNS was negative in regard to GAP effect. It may be in their company policy and also recommended practice from companies act. Not invested here, just looking in.

[orchardholder] 25/6/2024 09:57

Very welcome surprise - totally didn't expect this.

It makes me think that the take-over is off the table and they will just go back to paying dividends (probably at a higher rate, going forward)
Otherwise, it makes no sense for Ravi to push up the price - he was not required to issue this trading update.

Still holding the same position of 311K shares

[97peter] 25/6/2024 09:26

Could we yet see a re-instatement of a 1p dividend in August? Maybe an announcement in July if things are on the up and new and existing lending continues to grow and strengthen? Fingers crossed as a better share for dividends than a takeout.

[davidosh] 25/6/2024 08:35

There was no update on whether the company is delisting or on the fraud and insurance investigation issues so it makes the company rather uninvestible without more certainty on the future direction.

Also when a company announce... management now expect that earnings will exceed current market guidance by over 20%. Why do they not avoid any misunderstandings and changes to any guidance during the year and just spell out what exactly that market guidance is?? Then we can add 20% to it.

What was the current guidance?

[wjccghcc] 25/6/2024 07:30

Are they still delisting?

[muffster] 25/6/2024 07:28

Should he be investigated for manupulation here?20% up when 2 months ago all gloom

[cwa1] 25/6/2024 07:19

Cut the dividend...oh, BTW, we're more than 20% above market guidance. Hmmmm

[konradpuss] 25/6/2024 07:03

Ravi is an archetype charlatan.

He should just 'pony up' and make a proper offer.

[cwa1] 25/6/2024 06:13

Bit of a shocker...but in a good way :-))

5th June 2024



Orchard Funding Group PLC



Trading Update



Orchard Funding Group PLC ("Orchard", the "Group" or "Company"), the finance group which specialises in insurance premium finance and the professions funding market, provides the following Trading Update.

Trading year to date has been positive within the insurance premium finance market driving revenue growth through increased lending. The Company has applied a disciplined approach to its growth enabling the Group to maintain income against a backdrop of higher interest rates. As a consequence, management now expect that earnings will exceed current market guidance by over 20%.

Ravi Takhar, the CEO of the Company stated:

"We continue to focus on the controlled and conservative growth of our business and are pleased to be able to notify the market that we reasonably believe, subject to final audit, that we will exceed current market guidance by over 20%.

We continue to strengthen our lending in our core insurance premium finance market as well as our lending in adjacent markets. We are optimistic that our ability to lend, develop and operate our own software and our loyal and experienced staff will continue to deliver positive results to the company and all its stakeholders."