Orchard Funding Share Discussion Threads

[97peter] 21/2/2024 16:16

Konradpuss - A few are mine! But see this link as to small MM’s / II’s buying and owning ORCH in last few months?


Google FT review and Orchard Funding to see free fundamentals, owners and outlook for ORCH is great!!

[konradpuss] 21/2/2024 14:43

It's Peter buying!

I just cannot bring myself to average down.

I am actually not worried about any regulatory issues, it's just that the management appear 'accident prone'.

[playful] 21/2/2024 14:36

Who would have thought!

[cwa1] 21/2/2024 13:39

Shares in ORCH CAN go UP as well as down apparently :-)

[spob] 06/2/2024 20:24

Martin Lewis money show ITV1, talking about car finance claims tonight

[konradpuss] 06/2/2024 15:30

CWA1, it is interesting, the news about the GAP insurance product was out several days before the company announcement. You could have, I guess, made a few quid out of that legally if anyone would have let you short it.

I am invested and luckily, I go in to a stock on the basis of buying a bit and watching and doing more research so the current 'paper loss' is not nice in percentage terms but not cataclysmic.

I am sure Peter will say 'double down'.

I am happy to watch and wait.

[cwa1] 06/2/2024 15:17

Well, that's the first smile that anything ORCH related has raised with me for a while. Thanks konradpuss :-)

[97peter] 06/2/2024 15:03

On the golf club example. The £1,000 membership, would cost the club £1,100 for interest payments and use of Lendxp. They then have to make a profit for admin and running the scheme, so they charge a £100, which equates to the golfer paying the club, who in turn pay Orchard. So the golfer pays back at £300 a quarter, the club pays back to Orchard ££275. Orchard making £100 a golfer, the club perhaps making £70/ golfer or less when the running and admin taken into account.

[97peter] 06/2/2024 14:56

That’s not right totally, yes it is the customer who,is repaying Orchard. Like with a golf club membership say at £1,000 a year. The golf club will borrow say 100,000 for 100 memberships at beginning of financial year for the Golfclub. It will then offer memberships at a rate say £300 a quarter paying back £1,200 for a £1,000 annual membership. This covers the interest charged by Orchard, plus licensing and Admin for using Lendxp SaaS, like Equifax doing credit checks on clients. If the golfer defaults it is the golf club that pays as they are the guarantor. The clients are taking a loan from Orchard, via the club!

[34adsaddsa] 06/2/2024 14:46

I don't think that's how it works. Orchard loans money directly to the consumer, then the consumer makes repayments to Orchard. The payments to Orchard are the cost to the consumer and they will expect to be repaid by Orchard.

[97peter] 06/2/2024 14:36

34ad - There will be no redress against Orchard. Example for GAP insurance with one of Orchard Funding bigger clients Toyota UK. A customer is offered GAP insurance from ToyotaUK for his new Yaris say at a premium of £500. But customer says he cannot afford that, Toyota UK say he can payback for this Insurance over 12 months, which they guarantee.! And offer at say 8% interest or more. Toyota UK borrow that money from Orchard on behalf of customer and they payback at 6%, Orchard borrow the money from HSBC at 3%. They are just the middleman providing finance all clear and above board! The FCA issue is with the brokers, I.e. Toyota UK who could charge 15% interest on GAP and maybe do? The risk is with brokers like Toyota UK, not Orchard. The risk over 12 months to Orchard is getting these funds paid back and re-allocating to static homes or bridging loans asap, to bridge the profit lost here!!

[davidosh] 06/2/2024 11:48

34adsaddsa....Agreed and you have summed that up well although I am not so sure the worst case scenario is one you would want to undertake as you rarely get near to the book value when all the fees get taken out.

I am sure they can replace the lost business over time but I do suspect the margins may not be as good and as you say the FCA have now added huge risk to the downside if they are investigating and looking for compensation options.

[34adsaddsa] 06/2/2024 11:17

97peter is right that losing the business isn't a serious problem. The money will be reallocated to some other area. There are always consumers and businesses looking to borrow money. In a worst case scenario, the company could just be wound down and shareholders would do very well indeed as they receive something not far off book value.

The FCA/redress issues are a different matter. That's the risk. That's why the shares are where they are.

[davidosh] 06/2/2024 10:00

Stockopedia has eps falling dramatically from 8.54p last year to 4.76p this year and then 3.17p next year so clearly the broker forecast suggest the lost business is not going to be replaced and will more than halve the earnings.

Has anyone seen these forecasts?

[cc2014] 06/2/2024 09:13

I took a proper look at ORCH today and can't find an investment case at 23p. Too may red flags and operating in markets which are overly sensitive to legislation and a market downturn.

[97peter] 05/2/2024 21:32

Yes 20%. Though this money will be re-allocated over the next 6 months into new Private school contracts, more mobile and static homes being funded. Plus more bridging loans to fill this gap. It will take time, but this is a steady eddy share, with growth medium to long term. Not share that will go from 35p, to 65p, then onto 195p and 129p in a short 3-4 years, if this is what investors PI’s want, then this is not the share for them!

[konradpuss] 05/2/2024 20:28

Peter the puffer.

They have just lost a big percentage of their business.

The market has spoken.

P.S. Nothing wrong with the 'cheap seats'.

[97peter] 05/2/2024 20:02

Don’t be so pedantic! If you understood fully what Orchard do? Konradpuss, CWA1, Davidosh, et al, would be fully buying in big style at 23/24p and averaging down for a rerate back to 35p in 6 months! Once the FCA have clarified their investigations and new plans and outcomes. Instead their is mass panic and sludge throwing from the cheap seats!

[playful] 04/2/2024 22:04

I think Konradpuss adds value to this BB and hope he/she continues to contribute.

[97peter] 03/2/2024 20:33

Davidosh - I was just saying Konradpuss didn’t seem to know what Orchard do! Maybe he should watch the last Mello Ravi did last year?

[davidosh] 03/2/2024 19:48

97peter....no need for that!! Konradpuss has posted from the company website and it says clearly the core business.

There is no place here for people that try to attack those posting researched and informative investment info. Maybe you should tell us what percentages of the company profits come from each revenue stream.

For the record it does not matter whether posters have shares in the company now or previously or even never invested at all. So long as courteous and helpful.

[konradpuss] 03/2/2024 19:46

Invested and fully understand the company - as far as it goes.