Orchard Funding Share Discussion Threads

[bedbel] 13/4/2024 09:57

I think Ravi has to offer at least 30p to get the bigger shareholders like Gresham to give their shares away. And I hope it will be 40p. It will cost him 2,8 to 3,7 million. 2,8 is what he collected from dividends since listing in 2016. If he tenders anything below 30p I am happy to hold because, depending on the uptake, the NAV could rise above 100p/s with profits between 4 and 5 p/s at least. (Only my opinion, DYOR)
PS: We hold 2,1% at an average buying price of 21p.

[konradpuss] 12/4/2024 14:42

Ravi, ehhhr Peter, thank you for the steer on a possible buy out price.

Well I would decline 25p and just hang on being a very annoying very minority shareholder in a private company. AGM's would then be great fun.

Further, you think there won't be an offer. You have called this one wrong at every turn and you are not stopping now.

I would put my pension on the fact that there will be an offer from Ravi.

[valueman94] 12/4/2024 11:10

Is anyone on this board a significant shareholder?

[97peter] 12/4/2024 07:42

Agree Kabrams, I was just setting out 1 or 2 scenarios. I believe there won’t be a de-listing and if there is we will be lucky to get 25p a share!

[muffster] 12/4/2024 06:26

Be interesting to collate all Ravi's, sorry, Peters posts in one long dangerous message. Sad to see this delisting.

[davidosh] 11/4/2024 23:00

kabrams....I tend to agree with you. He was telling us lots of positive sounding words when posting a year ago and that was whilst he was selling down his holding.
That is not good and as I was buying shares at the time and have lost 60% of my investment it does not make me feel I can trust anything they say.

I do not know what happens next but certainly think there is at least 50p per share of risked value in this company. Will Ravi want to share that and possibly more with shareholders or want the whole of the cake for himself and indeed the family members involved.

My guess is a tender offer to take out those who no longer wish to stay and a delist but which will come first? A delist announcement tens to send the shares down so he could then offer far less. Look at what has happened at IBPO and that was a very profitable company.

As an investor these situations make me very frustrated and annoyed as the stockmarket should be for long term dividend paying companies to be around for many years. This company has lost 80% of its value in the few years since listing

[kabrams] 11/4/2024 21:08

I beg people not to listen to this man. This is plainly another ramp as to suggest Rav will offer 40 or 50 pence is pure fantasy. Do not be fooled like this man has fooled before.

[97peter] 11/4/2024 20:18

All, at best I cannot see CEO paying more than 40p a share even if he gets 70% approval after review and putting case to MM’s. Him and his family as you see from major shareholders on Orchard website own 59% of the stock. He would need £3-4 million pounds to buy the 15% of shares he needs to take it private. If he offers 50p the deal is done!!

[konradpuss] 10/4/2024 04:00

Peter, "we will all just have to wait and see "? I thought you were best mates with Ravi. Surely he told you were he might pitch any bid.

[97peter] 09/4/2024 20:32

My only point here is on the FCA. The investigation into GAP insurance that companies offered and what interest rates were charged, is wide across the whole of the car industry totally. BUT only for certain criteria, see the notes from Martyn Lewis on TV. Orchard were involved with GAP insurance I believe with Toyota UK, this money and contracts was limited and any new monies for this area are now being borrowed elsewhere and to other categories like Mobile homes and bridging loans.
On the RNS we will all just have to wait and see?

[playful] 09/4/2024 19:34

Absolutely no doubt he’s walked the share price down and everyone that trusted him with their pension lost out so it’s on his conscience.

I will be working in B&Q well into my 70’s now.

[topvest] 09/4/2024 19:22

What leaves a somewhat sour taste is that the interims were actually quite good, even after the fraud charge. I personally think that Ravi has intentionally painted a very bleak picture before today's RNS so that the share price was on the floor before he starts offering an exit. For example, GAP insurance:

"As over 20% of the Group's assets finance GAP insurance products (as at 31 December 2023, unaudited), the withdrawal of these insurance products is likely to have a material adverse impact on the Company's financial results over the current financial year."

This was deliberately alarmist as in today's interims he states there was no impact in H1 and confirms that the existing book will run off over 3 years. There is just an H2 new business impact. Why did they not confirm that originally?

They also scaremongered a bit on the fraud and have now revised lower.

I just feel that Ravi has worked the share price down through making no effort. He will now possibly offer a bit more and get his hand bitten off without looking a total rip-off merchant. It's probably going very well from his perspective in terms of his plan to get everything back and he can dangle the FCA review on insurance premium finance on why its not going to be anything like book value.

[konradpuss] 09/4/2024 18:22

David, the ineptness of not confirming when the dividend would be paid was a big red flag for me.

I am less troubled by financing gap insurance. They did not sell the product however just financed it.

As to the fraud, at least it was ONLY £.5 million.

Busses quite often come along in threes.

My view is that this company does not have the management quality or intention which would enable it to remain on the public market and grow successfully.

I think Ravi will take it private at a discount to NAV and all will move on.

I have learnt nothing as I already knew not to invest in banks or quasi banks.

[davidosh] 09/4/2024 17:21

Valueman94...I am not sure how long you have been a shareholder but it may be just recently looking for the value in your name.

Anyway the facts are that most shareholders on here invested well below the NAV and it was yielding 7% at the point where I bought but the communication has been poor and all the points listed by CWA1 are very valid.

Nobody asks the FCA to investigate but when they do it means that a company has possibly been involved in operating in a way that concerns them. I hope it comes to nothing and that the money lost to fraud can be recovered but it does not instil confidence when all those issues arise in a finance house that also messed up on the dividend payment.

[valueman94] 09/4/2024 16:50

1. Almost every single financial firm has some instance of fraud. It’s in the very nature of financial reporting for it to be so.
2. What type of communication are you after? Management are bound by insider trading laws so can’t exactly say all or buy share when they want (as a sign of confidence)
3. The FCA review has zero to do with management. It’s not like they asked the fca to look into it.

It’s all small cap stuff. It’s nothing new. If you want the best corporate governance then maybe the large cap stocks are for you.

The management have grown the business to a health size with almost no impairments on loans that is an achievement in itself. They’ve kept the head count low even with the growth in lending. They haven’t borrow excessively. It’s easy to criticise from the bench.
It’s not managements fault you paid 3x net asset value. It’s yours.

[cwa1] 09/4/2024 16:38

The reason for the pessimism MIGHT be something to do with announcements of fraud at the company, dreadful or non-existent communication from the company, an FCA review in to the company's products which "is likely to have a material adverse impact on the Company's financial results over the current financial year.", the dividend dates announcmenets fiasco, general incompetence. etc, etc. It's almost as if the major shareholder was softening up the punters for a lowball bid...

[valueman94] 09/4/2024 15:48

Wow so much pessimism on these comment sections. No wonder the shares have sold for less than what they’re worth. There’s nothing to say that they will buy back shares and this will increase the price of the stock. With the business growing too it makes a strong case for it. Value attracts. The comments below would have you believe a delisting is definite. It’s an option. Just like the stock increasing to its true value is an option.

[konradpuss] 09/4/2024 12:55

He could just leverage up the company along with reducing the business they are writing.

There was £2.5 million cash on the balance sheet last July.

It would be capitalised at circa £9.5 million on the basis of an offer at 50% of the last reported NAV so he would have to find £4.75 million. If he used the cash on the balance sheet (assuming it is still around the same amount) he would only have to find £2.25 million himself that is if the shareholders accepted that level of offer.

[cc2014] 09/4/2024 12:38

That presupposes he's got millions lying around doing nothing to buy the remaining 50%. I doubt anyone will lend him the money

[konradpuss] 09/4/2024 11:45

It will be a worry for Ravi if he is left with a bunch of awkward 'hold outs'.

For what it is worth, my estimate is that he will offer in the region of 50% of NAV as a start.

I might be well wrong.

[davidosh] 09/4/2024 10:50

It is impossible to know what happens next and at what price but clearly with over 50% already Ravi is not going to need to worry about having to offer very much in order to clear out all those who have lost confidence or cannot remain in a private company.

For the past year this has felt like the most likely outcome and is very distasteful when you consider that the company listed at a far higher price and many times the current share price. It makes a mockery of the market and companies should not be allowed to list if there is a dominant or related party shareholders over 50%

[konradpuss] 09/4/2024 10:13

Well, Peter, errrh Ravi owns just over 50%. So what can he borrow to buy the minority out?

With the last published net assets over 80p we might be surprised. I am not saying which way mind!

[glavey] 09/4/2024 09:47

Nasty things those ticks

[topvest] 09/4/2024 07:06

Well at least the share price has ticked-up.