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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orchard Funding Group Plc | ORCH | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.50 | -0.88% | 56.00 | 08:47:12 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.50 | 56.00 | 56.50 | 56.00 | 56.50 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| GENERAL FINANCIAL |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2025 | Special | GBP | 0.01 | 12/06/2025 | 13/06/2025 | 25/06/2025 |
| 13/12/2023 | Final | GBP | 0.02 | 18/01/2024 | 19/01/2024 | 26/01/2024 |
| 06/04/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.01 | 08/06/2023 | 09/06/2023 | 23/06/2023 |
| 01/12/2022 | Final | GBP | 0.02 | 22/12/2022 | 23/12/2022 | 06/01/2023 |
| 29/03/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.01 | 09/06/2022 | 10/06/2022 | 24/06/2022 |
| 26/10/2021 | Final | GBP | 0.02 | 09/12/2021 | 10/12/2021 | 17/12/2021 |
| 09/03/2021 | Interim | GBP | 0.01 | 10/06/2021 | 11/06/2021 | 25/06/2021 |
| 27/10/2020 | Final | GBP | 0.02 | 10/12/2020 | 11/12/2020 | 18/12/2020 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 23/6/2025 09:33 by smithie6 Small bit of infoAnother lending company, lse:time. In Feb. '25 it had TNAV of ~£43m while it's cap value is £54m. That shows that a UK lending company can have a cap. value higher than its TNAV. For Orch the TNAV is ~100p/share. Although yes, TIME has that higher valuation because its margin is higher & is valued by the mkt using p/e & not using its TNAV. And because the company has intentionally put effort in to building up a keen loyal base of shareholders with presentations, frequent RNSs & also quarterly results (very unusual for any small cap company on AIM. Probably unique). The directors there are material shareholders (but holding <50% I am sure) so they want the share price to be high, to dissaude a takeover offer (so they keep their good salaries) & to help the company if want to issue new shares or use shares to make an acquisition. At ORCH the boss owns 57% so he can reject takeover offers on his own, if he wants & hence feels he doesn't need to do presentations to shareholders etc. ------ Another small point while I am writing. Orchard is perhaps unique on the AIM market for there being no dilution for the shareholders by the issuing of new shares. For me that is a plus point. (While yes, the CEO does get rewarded for performance, via cash bonus). At many companies there is notable dilution due to share options, the recomended maximum is 10% in 10 years but that is exceeded at some companies. And at many companies it is done with an exercising price of 0p, which personally I really disagree with. |
Posted at 20/6/2025 11:01 by smithie6 Price Target...forget the year 31st July '24 to 31st July '25....in ~5 weeks it will be history & shares look at the future not the past ... EPS prediction for '25-'26 (see other post) 17p If award a low p/e of 6 that gives a share price = 6 X 17 = 102p So the current 65p is still cheap imo ----- ....imo over time the p/e given to these shares will increase.....& will be linked to the growth....& the company has a clear record of growth. Investors like to invest in growth. So, imo the p/e will at some time in the future be higher than 6, but it all takes time. At Orchard the growth in EPS in ~3 is "double" ! At some time the mkt might value the shares for the company's record of growth. ---- If value the shares wrt the TNAV. ....expected TNAV (*1) at end of fin. year '25-'26 = 125p +/- X A share price of at least 3/4 of the TNAV seems a reasonable target. = 3/4 X 125p = 94p Much higher than the current share price of 65p to buy. *1. For this calc. the value of any divis paid out is included since the shareholder will have that money in their pocket, it is not lost. ==== It is worth noting that shares in another low cap. lender (lse:time) are valued at "higher" than the TNAV & those shares are valued based on the EPS & p/e, that is because the market likes the growth being produced & the frequent communications to the shareholders. In the future it is possible that Orchard shares could/might also be valued at higher than the TNAV, but that would take time. ---- Divi 4p/year. 6.1% yield. |
Posted at 20/6/2025 09:55 by smithie6 p/e for new financial year starting on 1st August>=17p EPS (calculation below & was posted before) p/e = 65/17 = 3.8 Still very cheap. ----- NTAV 31st July 2025 ~115p Share price. ~65p ~56% of the TNAV And that TNAV is mostly cash. The shares are still very cheap imo. ---- If any of you are number crunching.... ...the falling interest base rate is good for Orchard. I think its average borrowing is about £14 million (to check). For every 1% fall in base rates that saves Orchard £140k. (= + 0.7p for the EPS) And now that Orchard is making notably more profit & has increased its TNAV one hopes it can receive a slightly better % rate from where it borrows from. If that happened it would help the profit. ====== Profit H1. £1.5m PAT. So, let us say £3m for the year. Minus £400k divi. (Normally now £800k/yr, lower pay out during fin. year '24-'25 since divi was stopped in 2024 due to 2 one offs). Resulting cash addition = 3m - 0.4m = £2.6m If Orchard then lends out this money, if say that nett profit is 12% (need to check the accounts) then that is = £2.6m x 0.12 = £ 312k Let us assume that Orchard will borrow more to lend out (keeping the ratio wrt it's own cash relatively stable). The on-going increase in borrowing is visible in the accounts for past years. Let us assume that Orchard makes +£200k from that increase. If assume that average interest rate in fin. year 25-26 is 1% lower that saves Orchard £140k in interest costs. Summation = £312k + £200k + £140k = £652k 21.3m shares Gives a per share increase of + 3.1p. There would be some increase in costs to subtract such as increase in wages. So I think an EPS increase of + 2p/share is a reasonable estimate for 31st July '24 to 31st July '25 Assuming that achieving 15p EPS for the year to 31st July '24 then these calcs give a prediction for the year to 31st July 26 of 15p+ 2p = 17p (& it is worth looking at the accounts of the last 10 years & noting that the company has a history of growth in the loan book. Hence it is perfectly safe to assume as the baseline that growth will continue (& after noting the text in today's RNS & the last H1 accounts which talk of "growth"). |
Posted at 11/6/2025 14:48 by orchardholder Hey all, I’ve sold all my 311K shares over the last 1-2 months. It was really much more difficult to sell these vs. to buy them… When I bought them in March 2024 I got multiple blocks with 50K & 60K shares, so I got in within a few days. I admit, it was lucky timing on my end.I had a cost basis of 17.8p, and sold them on average at 49p. +175% / GBP 95K in a bit more than a year. I started selling at 40p, but there wasn’t any liquidity. Then some of you pushed up the price to 50p, and suddenly there was liquidity (?!) I am not necessarily bearish on the company, but I believe another 175% won’t be possible again. I think the best times are over for the stock. I expect it to trade at 7-11% dividend yield. While the company can easily afford 10p for dividends, more realistically, I expect 4p. So, I expect the price to stay around where it is right now. For me, the exit plan was always the tender offer (I was willing to accept an offer at 40p), but I guess I got lucky now to get out earlier. I do also believe that there are currently many investors who have too high/strange expectations due to confirmation bias and/or not having done enough research yet. You can see here in the chat that, like conspiracy theorists would do it, any news is interpreted as some super positive hidden development, while in reality, none of them are relevant. E.g. Story here: “Mr. UT buying big” -> Reality: whenever there were enough Ordinary trades on the LSE, the MM needed to pick up the shares somewhere else. That somewhere was almost 100% me via UT trades. Whenever I saw shares being bought via ordinary trades, I knew that at the next hour the MM will buy my shares to fill up his “inventoryR (There are more such examples) But now the good news for everybody here: the selling pressure from my side is over ;-) You can push the price up if you buy more, but I doubt there will be much liquidity (especially buyers) after an initial push. Thanks a lot to Konrad, Peter, and Jack – all have helped me in your own ways with your comments and conversations! I wish you guys all good luck with the rest of this journey! May you find some liquidity at the end of it haha |
Posted at 09/6/2025 10:48 by smithie6 Interesting trade last FridayAt 17:24:48 54.5p 45861 shares = £25.0k Market price was 50.0p-51.0p So, to get the volume (46k shares) the buyer paid 3.5p over the official mkt price to buy. ------ So, I bought some more this morning. ~51p to get ~125p of TNAV at end July '26. ....whereas at the bank if you put in 51p you get back 51p & a low % for interest which roughly cancels with inflation so you haven't gained anything. p/e is only just over 3 !! ...still crazy cheap imo despite having gone up ----- The buying in VANQ & ORCH in recent days/weeks shows that the mkt is interested to - buy at below cash TNAV - buy in companies lending out money .....& that the good times for Orchard shares will imo surely continue. ---- If ORCH was valued wrt it's TNAV at the same ratio as Vanquis then the ORCH share price would be 78p. ;-) |
Posted at 05/6/2025 10:07 by smithie6 Funding for lenders like ORCH.The proof says you are wrong. There are various companies on AIM/LSE that borrow money from big banks & then lend it out, & lending out their own money as well, TIME ORCH DFCH I think & many more. The banks seem happy enough to lend to these smaller lenders. If banks can pay depositors 4%....if they put it in Govt bonds they might get 4% ...& make no profit. By lending to TIME, ORCH etc they make a % & the bank is happier & they need to make a cut so they can pay their staff. And the nett cash of ORCH, TIME makes the bank confident that it will get it's money back. Whereas if the bank makes a personal loan to Joe Bloggs with no security for it, they know that a % of loans will not be paid back. |
Posted at 04/6/2025 17:59 by smithie6 OrchardholderI compare Orchard shares with Vanquis shares since similar companies in some ways... ... borrowing money to lend it out at a higher % rate ...while of course Vanquis is a relatively big company compared with Orchard. Yes, I hold shares in both. I have about 5x more £ invested in Orchard than in Vanquis. Orchard pays a nice divi, Vanquis doesn't. (Vanquis has gone from 50-60p to 92p; Orchard from 30p to 51p, both going up nicely). |
Posted at 04/6/2025 15:47 by smithie6 Vanquis versus OrchardA) Vanquis Discount wrt TNAV = (140p (TNAV)-93p (share price)/93p (share price) = 0.5 Or 50% wrt the share price. ===== B) Orchard Discount wrt TNAV = (110p-52p)/52p = 1.1 Or 110% discount wrt the share price. (TNAV. 31 July 2025. 110-115p) Orchard is at a much bigger discount wrt it's TNAV than VANQ is. And profit wise, Orchard thrashes Vanquis. Orchard makes ~15p/share, while I think Vanquis is at about breakeven !, because it in a recovery programme taking 3-4 years. While yes Orchard has a disadvantage in having the CEO own 57%, & the shares being illiquid (although that depends how many £k of shares you want to buy or sell. Dividend wise, Orchard beats Vanquis by miles. Orchard pays a big % divi while I don't think Vanquis pays any divi at all ! |
Posted at 18/5/2025 19:22 by smithie6 Btw97Peter wrote "and 75% say yes, then he has the company private !!" & he claims to own a decent chunk of shares. 300-400k. Well, shame he can't get his facts right !! To take a company private, ie. a compulsory purchase of all shares from other shareholders....need There is a very big difference between 75% & 90%. ---- To de-list from AIM, would , I understand, need >75% of the shares to vote in favour, not just >75% of the votes cast. So, the CEO with 57% of the votes would need to obtain another 18% of the shares.....& I can't see that happening since the shares are illiquid.....& with the share price's up trend & the much better results, I think a most PI shareholders are in no rush to sell. ---- The 3 biggest shareholders detailed on the Orchard website add up to 25%, (while yes, within the 5% held by clients of AJ Bell are surely a number of individual investors). Who would surely vote against delisting from AIM. The lenders of £26-£40 million to Orchard (Toyota & NatWest) have said they prefer for Orchard to stay listed (imo they surely feel it gives them a bit more security/confidence for their money). So, de-listing isn't going to happen. ===== And would a low ball offer from the CEO to buy Orchard be accepted ? No. The sector for listed small lending companies in the UK has improved over the last 2 years & interest rates have reduced & are expected to keep falling, & bonds are less attractive, which makes the purchase of a profitable company more attractive that it used to be compared with investing in bonds. There are takeover offers every week at the moment. If the CEO of ORCH were to make a takeover offer then he should have done it in 2024 when the company had problems & the share price was much lower. The profitability is now markedly higher so the price to take over the company would now have to be much higher. And competing offers could be obtained from others. And Gresham is the biggest shareholder after the CEO & is a clued up financial house & they like to get their pound of flesh !.... If an offer were to be made they would pull strings to ensure a high offer was obtained from some party (which might not be the CEO). And they would only accept the price if it was a good offer relative to the '25 EPS & future EPS & wrt the NTAV & future NTAV. |
Posted at 31/3/2025 16:38 by orchardholder Loving the stability of this company... they just keep delivering profitable and steady growth.The dividend also confirms that Ravi is operating in good faith. Given this report, I do somewhat doubt that the company will be taken private in the short term, because 1) Ravi invested further into growth, not building up additional cash during H1, and 2) he will pay the 2c dividend in H2. I am 95% sure there won't be a takeover proposal within 2025, otherwise, these decisions would be more than illogical. At the current >14p net profit per year, they could easily do a quarterly 2p dividend and still have 6p left for growth. Unfortunately, this isn't likely in the near term. But I think the 2p dividend might now just be the new semi-annual dividend (=4p per year). I somewhat expect that we won't hear from the company again until the full-year report in December. I just keep holding my 311K shares, patiently waiting for dividends/high BV/takeover offer. The risk reward remains very attractive in these turbulent times. I treat ORCH as my high-yield cash position within my portfolio. |
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