Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[nimrod22] 28/10/2017 17:53

I've been nibbling away at the up and down shifts, and I bought back in at 69.75p on 23 Oct with £28 grands worth, not the price or amount that I wanted as my limit order did not kick in whist the share price was falling.
I'm hoping that all the happy clappers are actually right this time re the jam is in sight.
As I mentioned a few posts back there was a pennant flag indicated in the graphs, and lets hope the jump in share price materialises. Otherwise its out again to take a profit and try again another day.

[incanus] 28/10/2017 14:51

The bacteria living in your gut could tell you whether you are at risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). New research has suggested that people living with PTSD have low levels of bacteria that help with fighting infections.

[elrico] 28/10/2017 14:42

Imnotlong - They way I understand it, LPGOS/TATA will be generating income for OPTI as soon as they start their pilot production because this will generate products using OPTI IP/Patents. They will after all have been supplied with raw ingredients from SACCO and will have had to pay for these, so yes, revenues from SACCO and TATA. Full production is expect to be December. The pilot production is a legal term for tweaking the plant for maximum volumes and minimizing waste materials. So, essentially, by November 2018 OPTI will have almost a full 12 months of sales data off TATA.

John - Yes, HLH will be placing their 3rd order before Christmas. However, the 1st was a mere sample order, probably used for HLH marketing purposes. Lets see if HLH increase their order levels or decrease the period in which they wait between orders. HLH could become a good benchmark for B2B gauge.

[2350220] 28/10/2017 12:57

Dunno if this got picked up from the interview, but I noticed that Per said that HLH are looking to place their next (third?) order before the year is out.
Sounds like they aren't messing about!
John

[imnotlong] 28/10/2017 12:37

Elrico, are you saying Opti will get income from the Tata/lpgos this calendar year then? I don't mean physical payment as that might be quarterly of half yearly? But will they start accruing income?
And does it means that products with lpgos will be on sale in the Indian market within a couple of months? And will that be another deal?

[shrewdmole] 28/10/2017 11:44

Jj

Totally agree. Some of my recent posts are pure musings on what could be achieved.

Soh is extremely clued up and we are benefiting from previous decisions he made where he lost control of development.

The microbiome could be the biggest transformation in human wellbeing in our lifetime and we are at the cutting edge of it.

S

[judijudi] 28/10/2017 11:40

Shrewd,
We have everything to play for and we have everything to gain
I think soh is showing himself to be without doubt the best ceo we could have wished for (and he is without doubt the best I have come across on the aim cesspit)
He has ensured we have a product line that has the potential to be absolutely transformational for the company alongside a low cost business model that is quite brilliant in its simplicity
The futures looking extremely bright here
:)

[shrewdmole] 28/10/2017 11:33

Judi

I mean a retail agreement for US with one of the big players.

Cereal ingredients could be huge but there are so many more products and strains to be put out in the US market.

S

[onedayrodders] 28/10/2017 11:15

70 handle bid achieved.. hooray ... in fact settled at 72p

Gonna stick my neck out and say this is a turning point and next week 80p will be tested. Feels like at last this is the move towards 1.00 by xmas.

IMHO

ODR

[judijudi] 28/10/2017 11:10

Shrewd;
We do have a USA presence
Slimbiome with Cereal Ingredients
But agree non for our other products “as yet”

[elrico] 28/10/2017 10:35

Imnotlong - I hope this don't come across as being condescending fella...I think you misunderstand certain commercial aspects and strategy in place. For example Nutrilinea do not have a sales role as such, they manufacture products, just as SACCO manufacture the LP-LDL raw ingredient for said products. Of course both SACCO and Nutrilinea can reel in new clients, just as SACCO seem to be within the dairy market...but lets try to keep a complex situation a little simplified.

Raw ingredients - SACCO, Production of products - Nuttrilinea
Product sales - HLH, PharmaBiota, Galenicum. These will be a mix of B2B and B2C and or both.

Between SACCO, Nutrilinea, HLH, PharmaBiota and Galenicum OPTI have a minimum of 3 revenues streams PER PRODUCTS. For example, PharmaBiota have 3 products containing LP-LDL - So SACCO x1, Nutrilinea x3 and PharmaBiota x3 = 7 revenue streams.

HLH, PharmaBiota and Galenicum have all launched products containing LP-LDL, so revenues will be coming in from these. Timing of receipts has yet to be determined, as per intimated yesterday.

TATA/LPGOS goes into pilot production in November and full production in December once optimisation has been established. LPGOS will go into a variety of products, ranging of nutraceutical food and OTC products...so the scope for multiple products is huge as is the market.

I suspect TATA/SlimBiome will be in 2018 - Christina is readying for a big SlimBiome push for 2018. I know it appears to have been very quiet here but she has been very busy putting certain aspects in place ready for 2018.

CII/SlimBiome possible collaboration for cereal ingredients and supply ingredients for cereals and hot & cold snacks

Retail store push in 2018

OPTI in-house Wellbeing consumer online sales for products containing OPTI's, Cardiobiome, CholBiome, SlimBiome, OptiBiome, ImmunoBiome.

[shrewdmole] 28/10/2017 10:15

Guys just been musing over a few things.

It was mentioned a while back that maybe boots would stock go figure?
Now if they accept the microbiome science would they not want to have a suite of products, cholbiome, cardiobiome and they have heir own cosmetics brand so would they not also be interested in skinbiome?

We could in theory have a whole section of floor space just for Opti products.

Is that too ambitious or a reality?

I wouldn't bet against it.

This is my whole point on valuations.
Once the science is mainstream it will be in everything and the big players will be falling over themselves as it will be a 'must' in their products for consumers.

Hence why I believe when the price goes it will really go.

We've had some good Rns with good companies as partners but nothing yet for UK or US.
Either one of those could be the catalyst. And don't forget boots parent company Walgreen are US so could they rollout our products on both sides of the Atlantic?

S

[parob] 28/10/2017 09:41

The naysayers come and go. OPTI's had more than its fair share due to TW's love of the stock. They've been here since 8p, just look back at some of the early posts on this bb. We'll be having the last laugh once this races ahead, and I have a feeling that's going to happen sooner rather than later.

[18081] 28/10/2017 09:40

Sorry Ray - Missed your question.


hxxps://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/LACTOBACT-LDL-CONTROL-magensaftresistente-Kapseln-90-St-PZN-13502016/263188458195?epid=2152009710&hash=item3d47412ad3:g:-n0AAOSwE9lZrpqY

[elrico] 28/10/2017 09:29

Rayrac - You're another BBM that can't keep his word. You lasted less than 24 hours before returning with your unfounded allegations - Nor can you qualify them and you presume to be taken seriously! You demonstrate your ignorance as well as demonstrating you do not posses the ability to see value in new niche markets with new proven peer reviewed science. Are simply another TW troll!

[john henry] 28/10/2017 09:04

Rayrac, then short the stock and show the screen print.

[loungeact] 28/10/2017 08:42

“At this moment in time, it has all the makings of another bioprogress!” - Are you able to explain why you think Optibiotix is similar, except for the fact that it has ‘bio’ in it’s name?

[rayrac] 28/10/2017 08:20

Very few sales ever, would be another way of looking at this...or income.

At this moment in time, it has all the makings of another bioprogress!

[imnotlong] 28/10/2017 08:04

My guess, based on RNS and interviews, of current revenue streams (excluding timing of payments):

Would be interested to know if there are more.

Gofigure - online sales
Sacco - manufacture of lpldl
HLH - supply agreement
DSM - development funding

Pharmabiota - no income yet - sales to start 2018
Tata - no income yet - sales to start??
Galenicum - no income yet - sales to start 2018
Nutrilinea - no income yet - sales to start 2018 with online store and cholbiome
Bened - no income yet - some kind of agreement and sales in 2018
Cereal ingredients - no sales yet - Agreement and sales 2018

[elrico] 28/10/2017 00:28

Shrewdmole - I think the conservative tone is set by SOH. I seem to remember SOH using 10 to 20 times earning as industry standard valuations (Probi as an example) in a similar way TW uses PE valuations. If we use the middle of the road figure of 15 x £5m (revenues) = £75m market cap. However, SOH also gives us an insight into his real thinking when he says; "If this works well the company should be able to build up revenues in the £20-30m region in the future giving a valuation for Optiscreen division ALONE under current industry examples in the region of £200-300m." Typically, he is using the low end calculations. I have never ventured to ask his timeframe for this.

All the while it is worth noting OPTI's capex is actually under £1m pa and margins are nearer 100%. Also, TATA/LPGOS could be responsible for c£5m in sales alone and we have not considered TATA/SlimBiome yet. There are differences in the guesstimates TW and I have used, but they are not that far apart, but in the end, I think we agree that both sets of figures may well prove to be very conservative on a 12-18 month view. There is the online sales yet to be set up, which SOH estimates will account for 10-12% of revenues - this suggests this is going to be a big push once the product lines have been established. I guess then PHD will set about their marketing campaign.

I think the one thing we can all agree on, TW is right - the market has not understood OPTI's business model and or it's ridiculous revenue stream that are accumulating and will grow exponentially over the next 18+ months - if not much sooner - all depends when they come on stream. As Per stated, companies like HLH, PharmaBiota and Galenicum have hit the ground running....others will take longer. He also suggested some contracts may be paid 3 monthly and other annually, I hope those paid annually have a premium paid to OPTI for this privilege.

Does anyone want to workout how many revenue streams are in play? :)

I'll give you a hot tip if anyone gets it right. ;)

[shrewdmole] 27/10/2017 23:19

I think Tw is way off the mark with future earnings.

I'd agree a growth company could justify a pe of 25 but he's not allowing for so many things.

We still own 42% of Sbtx who are making great progress.
The sugars seem to be going to plan. We are talking about a calorie free natural alternative to sugar?!
Lpldl is huge and in itself will hit an inflexion point albeit this may take a bit of time depending on the US partner.
Slimbo one
Tata
Commission from Sacco.

These deals are targeting huge markets.
Don't get me wrong 2018 I'm not expecting huge earnings but I am expecting the products to start snowballing in popularity and market acceptance. The point is when they do earnings growth will be scary.

And what if Sbtx does do a commercial deal add on 42% of that deal.

This has £500m cap written all over it IF one is prepared to wait.

As ever just my opinion but the Tw article is extremely cautious.

S

[fathenry] 27/10/2017 21:41

someuwin, yiu are a star great report and ta for posting, unlike the the haggis kiltie, goes to show yove class and never trustt a scottie

[incanus] 27/10/2017 21:03

TWs specially report, i thought it was quite good. Not so sure about him drumming up 100p or more by xmas. What i think we are missing, there is nothing in TWs special that elrico has not already covered for free. It told me our CEO trusts elrico as much as TW. Huge respect to elrico. I know i sound like a groupie but i think we may be taking his hard work for granted in light of TWs special. I know he gets bombarded with emails from me and i guess there are a few more just like me.

I'll buy you a few beers at HRH next month elrico xx