Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[owenmo] 06/10/2017 21:15

Yes, but guys, riddle me this?
How come worldly-wise capitalist (on the make) investors - say in Asia and in America - in the face if cast-iron validation and testimony, sit in the wings? What more do they want? Can the Opti programme, at these values, get any better? I ask you? Again, I ask you? £0.72p. For pity sake!

[incanus] 06/10/2017 20:04

Elrico, you just opened my eyes to a new world!

[elrico] 06/10/2017 19:05

I'm attempting to establish a revenue tree, an arduous task as OPTI pick up pace. As an example; HLH has created 3 revenue streams that are clear to me, possibly, I am missing one....licensing and or royalties dependant on the contract, but lets keep it simple for now.


Sacco set the commercial ball rolling with an exclusive licence to manufacture and supply cholesterol and blood pressure reducing LP-LDL strain (Raw ingredients) throughout the world. As we know, Sacco have a 50% share of profits and set the minimum price per kilo to prevent discounting. This alone added a 33% more to the bottomline than PREVIOUS agreement, thought to be in the high 90%. IF I understand the Chr Hansen model, their profit margin is net 28%.

As I understand it, Nutrilinea has a non exclusive commercial contract for the production and commercialisation of products containing LP-LDL (Products).

End products, HLH's LP-LDL - I believe these is a high margin lower volume on the shelf.

As I see it, EACH product on the shelf equals MIN 3 revenue streams at NO additional cost to OPTI. If we think along the lines of national type deal like HLH and PharmaBiota; if each of these has just a single product, it still generates 3 revenue streams = a minimum of 6 between them. Excluding royalties and license.

Of course when we get into the realms of multiple products from the like of TATA, then revenue streams just breed. We know there is plenty of interest from dairy produce manufacturers where I expect Sacco to come good post SSW. But, these take time to filter through, especially if these are larger corporates. Sacco had already garnered interest ahead of SSW.

The above is just the OptiScreen platform, 1 of 4 platforms and all have the same model of multiple revenue streams.

DSM has an agreement to develop new products using OptiBiotic platform and likewise, OPTI has the option to use DSMs strains. This of course is separate revenue stream to above. But, I would imagine any product development will follow a similar past to above.

[elrico] 06/10/2017 18:35

Probi figures are historical used for industry standards valuations. There is no doubting Probi has taken a beating these past 12 months, losing almost c40% of its value. Perhaps OPTI's progress is spooking their investors. ;)

[riskybusiness1] 06/10/2017 17:36

The optiscreen division alone with LPLDL has the potential to be a probi in the future especially with Sacco and the terms of the deal. The weight management, three arms to the sugar platform and the holding in SBTX makes Opti a much bigger opportunity than can be imagined at the moment..... Bened and it's psychobiotics will likely be the next opportunity that is picked up before this space explodes. From the recent RNS 'The potential for OptiBiotix to commercialise Bened's PS128 strain in Europe and the USA'. Likely Optis either eying an acquisition for this strain or licensing rights. Elricos piece from google translate yesterday... the fact Sacco are involved already tells it's own story.We don't know where this will go but my money's on a hell of a lot more than £50m.Have a good weekend all.

[imnotlong] 06/10/2017 17:04

Probi's market cap is a lot less than £500m these days. Nearly a third less. But still a lot more than Opti. So huge potential still.

[pglancy] 06/10/2017 15:51

same old mm bs games again?

[diamond fibre] 06/10/2017 15:29

I only say that because my Berendsen shares were valued at 12.50 a share I voted for more Elis shares, and now they are worth over 20 quid a share! DIAMOND.

[pglancy] 06/10/2017 15:29

According to elrico post today optibiscreen could be worth at least 4 times todays values on revenues between 20 to 30 m. There are 4 parts to the larger group, some less potential than others, even so if all could generate similar revenues in a few years time we could be looking at a $1 billion or more. Probis 500m was on 25m revenues. All v speculative yet is it outlandish. Rampish at this stage i guess.

[rafboy] 06/10/2017 15:25

I have a feeling a Pharma will come sniffing in 12 to 18 months time. Then they will sell off all the supplement bits and keep all the medical applications. It's Friday, I can dream.

[diamond fibre] 06/10/2017 15:22

True Scotty, but something like 65m plus let's say a piece of the company who wants to buy us, could tempt us?

[zebbo] 06/10/2017 15:19

Could well get snapped up, but not just yet. More evidence on market traction and scale required. By then we will be ~£2 and takeout will be £5. 12-18 months out... Rose colored specs and all that (just a bit of Fri banter);-)

[primal123] 06/10/2017 15:18

Diamond - 65m, you must be having a laugh! Worth much more than that and you will see!

[scotty1] 06/10/2017 15:12

diamond the current M/C is £56m so you'd be happy with a takeover for £65m? we wouldn't get much more for our shares than selling now.

[diamond fibre] 06/10/2017 14:01

Thank you jj13 I only try to help people make a few quid before the institutions Goble up the shares, we are doing so well it may be we get an offer to be taken over, what's 65million to the likes of the big pharma companies? May I suggest, small change! DIAMOND.

[jestercat2] 06/10/2017 13:26

Have trades really dried up or has my feed failed?

[fathenry] 06/10/2017 13:03

zzzzzzzzzzzzz, nufin doin borin, back to me chips

[shrewdmole] 06/10/2017 12:45

Elrico

I feel understandably chastised!

S

[elrico] 06/10/2017 12:31

From SOH

Their is more to come on this area of sweeteners/sugars and the microbiome in general. As we now have products on the market and build an online consumer presence we are engaging with PR groups to promote the microbiome and our products. We have been very successful in the last few years with a number of article sin the Times, Mail,Telegraph, Nature etc but hope to expand this coverage as we build market understanding and awareness of the benefits of our products. We see the microbiome as the future of healthcare and ourselves as very much leading the use of microbiome based products in healthcare.

We have just got our OptiBiotic principle onto Wkilpedia. Currently its part of a listing on synbiotics see

we anticipate this becoming a listing in its own right in a few months. This is just a small piece in building up the understanding and market awareness of our science and the benefits it brings to healthcare.

Feel free to share.

[jestercat2] 06/10/2017 12:05

Nice to see your 44K buy go through Shrewdmole.

[elrico] 06/10/2017 11:35

Shrewdmole - Pay attention, I have covered this valuation topic before. :)


There are multiple applications, each have multiple products, multiple partners and multiple territories, thus multiple revenue streams ranging from licensing, profit share, distribution, sales and manufacturing. If I reiterate what SOH has said; "Our strategy is to build multiple partnerships and the £3-6m is based on approx 10 national partnerships per application areas each delivering £300-£500K per year of existing products which comes from our discussions at Vitafoods, It DOES NOT INCLUDE RETAIL PARTNERSHIPS which in themselves can be worth £5-6m, OR OTHER APPLICATION AREAS such as dairy, snack bars etc or partnerships with global corporates as these are more difficult to forecast both in terms of deal structure and timescale." This should give us confidence of the potential size of revenues per application and indication of the size of company.

Revenues in of £20-30m UNDER current industry standards would value Optiscreen division in the region of £200-300m. Perhaps this seems wishful. However, ProBi’s valuation of £500m at today's value on £25m sales in 2015 accounts. Valuation on Probiotic market on 10-20x industry. OPTI as group is far more divers than Probi. The only advantage Probi has over OPTI is its established market presence, but under SACCO and Nutrillnea, that is already making headway.

[dorset64] 06/10/2017 11:25

Devonlad6 Oct '17 - 08:05 - 27788 of 27799 0 0
Do you like it Dorset, buy and hold for a good few years might make you a lot, not that you need it mind!
==========================================

Lol DL, like you I'm married, so I need every penny I can get :)

The story looks good here especially as the term story is replaced by fact, as in they are being used today to good effect. Therefore this will, imo, only increase over the coming years both in size & profits of the company complete with hand-in-hand wiht the share price.

I bought in to both you mentioned DL so thanks for that but only a small intro in the 'other' one, though a slightly bigger one here. Did you buy into ARS?

[1bokke] 06/10/2017 11:12

Thanks Moormoney, on the plus side however whilst in hospital I turned bright yellow and my young daughter now thinks I'm a secret minion and has told all her classmates that!! It's not quite a superhero but I'll take what I can get!

[shrewdmole] 06/10/2017 10:57

Guys what multiplier would one apply for a high growth stock?

I'm thinking 20 to 25 if it's high growth?

I'm just trying (albeit it's pure guesswork) to get a handle on a potential valuation of Opti in 12,24,36 months time.

The problem I'm finding is the revenues come from so many different products, agreements and commissions it's nigh on impossible to cover all the potential revenue streams.

As soon as we get thoughts on one deal there's another Jv or agreement announced.

The bened deal for example - could be huge taking a proven strain with extg sales to launch in Europe and the US. But what figure do you put on it?

The dairy market and cereal ingredients could be selling the ingredient to go in pretty much any and all products on shelves in supermarkets.

It's mind boggling.

I'm actually going to give up trying to put a guesstimate on revenue and valuation.

Will leave that to the researchers and brokers.

S

[moormoney] 06/10/2017 10:56

1bokke not a nice way to lose weight! I hope you’re better soon and Opti rise cheers you up.