Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[deeppockets] 02/10/2017 09:48

Classic early week dip, ready for positive announcements and a pick up later in the week - this has happened so often before!

[bobdown2] 02/10/2017 08:51

Trading at the moment is not reflecting the interest in Opti. Another 30k plus late buy from Friday at the mid price goes unnoticed and the sells drive the price lower and tonight you may well see another after hours buy!!! That's the trouble with aim, if you have not got a large seller then you have a large buyer !!!

[rafboy] 02/10/2017 08:45

One issue for some may be that we have seen the share price decline to the 50s and 60s even in the face of positive news. People may well think this will happen again so sell and think they can buy in cheaper. Of course at some point we will not fall back and there will be a clamour to buy back in. I think we are fast approaching that point so it has to be a hold for me.

[shrewdmole] 02/10/2017 08:41

TT

I get the feeling there are one or two that want in at a lower level so are talking it down.

after the last few rns how anyone can argue against the progress made is beyond me.

I know and appreciate some want revenue numbers, but time and again its been said soh is the largest PI here.

he is strategically building a behemoth imho.

that sacco deal was key imo to advancing discussions with the mn's. they will have wanted proof of ability to supply when the products take off.

the list of partners gets better by the week and the potential with bened has been massively underestimated.

with sbtx progress update on Thursday and everything going on here, I cant see why anyone would be negative at present.

revenues will come and when they do the growth will be electric, id rather be in now before the herds. lets not forget this still has a rather small pi base.

s

[trotterstrading] 02/10/2017 08:36

Lots of bickering on the BB recently, to be frank anyone who takes their investment advice from a BB needs their head examined. Take everything you read with a pitch of salt, DYOR and take responsibility for your own actions!Now can we get back to being grown-ups?

[owenmo] 01/10/2017 21:53

Yes Parob; newsreel after newsreel in September and great expectations for October; but will we see a share price re-alignment? The $64,000 question. Surely?

[pglancy] 01/10/2017 21:04

Just another 35 rnss plus whatever materilises from vegas from now til xmas.

[parob] 01/10/2017 20:33

In September there was news on Tata (LPGOS), Bened (psychobiotics) and Cereal Ingredients (slimbiome potential joint development partner). We also learnt that Slimbiome has an improved version and FDA registration was obtained for both LP-LDL and SlimBiome product ranges allowing access to the US market.Now what will the month of October bring?

[pglancy] 01/10/2017 20:07

Top man elrico. Much better.

[incanus] 01/10/2017 19:56

Youre on form elrico. Thanks.

[incanus] 01/10/2017 19:55

OMG which saddo ticked me down for pointing the bb was busy on a sunday? Get a live you saddo little man.

[elrico] 01/10/2017 19:49

Oh dear nimrod - you should never use the word "conspiracy" to a freemason - what next, NWO ;)

[elrico] 01/10/2017 19:45

I think it's best if we focus on the company strategy rather than get drawn into a numbers game in terms of how many national type deals or MN type deals. I accept I have probably fueled this from my past comments without the caveat of duplication of area's of interest from more than one company.

The strategy OPTI are embarking is building across each application area across Europe, USA, Asia and Australia & New Zealand - hence the visit to SSW and not specific to Vitafoods. For example, OPTI launched its LP-LDL products at Vitafoods, as well as showcasing it's SlimBiome application. At SSW OPTI launched new LP-LDL products as well as an improved version of SlimBiome, thus broadening its application areas into dairy, baked goods and Snacks, as examples. It also broadens territories(USA, Asia) where there could be a lot of news to come as and when OPTI close deals with multiple partners in multiple application areas across these territories.

So, there are multiple applications, each have multiple products, multiple partners and multiple territories, thus multiple revenue streams ranging from licensing, profit share, distribution, sales and manufacturing. If I reiterate what SOH has said; "Our strategy is to build multiple partnerships and the £3-6m is based on approx 10 national partnerships per application areas each delivering £300-£500K per year of existing products which comes from our discussions at Vitafoods, It does not include retail partnerships which in themselves can be worth £5-6m, or other application areas such as dairy, snack bars etc or partnerships with global corporates as these are more difficult to forecast both in terms of deal structure and timescale." This should give us confidence of the potential size of revenues per application and indication of the size of company.

IMHO - Everything is looking good to date and as I have already stated, OPTI have removed many of the hurdles POTENTIAL large corporates want removed, namely production capacity. The next NATURAL STEP for OPTI IS new commercial director and a commercially focused chairman. This would help focus the business better going forward. It's a stated goal, so very much on the cards and I would wager one of the positions is already from within.

[nimrod22] 01/10/2017 19:35

Lighten up Elrico, everything is not some sort of conspiracy.
My comment yesterday "I think its the endless daily hype that's wearing thin" that appeared to cause people to fall of their trolleys.
Yours today: -
"We are in danger of hyping expectations too much and this is never a good thing to do"

[incanus] 01/10/2017 19:13

BB busy for a sunday evening.

[pglancy] 01/10/2017 19:11

marnweton, i havent the foggiest idea what you have said.

elrico, thanks for the reply i think i understand it. Patience was it. lol ok cool.

So there could be 10 nationals or not do you think?

[elrico] 01/10/2017 18:39

Nimrod - Are you accusing me of something sinisters? My comment is based on historical events and SOH being held to account for a blogger over egging expectations and timeframe and I thought we were in danger of repeating the same post Las Vegas, that is all.

Slarty - As previously stated, BOD are at various stages of negotiations with multiple companies. We were told draft contracts had been sent into the company very shortly after Vitafoods. SOH since stated; "Our strategy is to build multiple partnerships and the £3-6m is based on approx 10 national partnerships per application areas each delivering £300-£500K per year of existing products which comes from our discussions at Vitafoods, It does not include retail partnerships which in themselves can be worth £5-6m, or other application areas such as dairy, snack bars etc or partnerships with global corporates as these are more difficult to forecast both in terms of deal structure and timescale."

Will OPTI have 10 nationals? They have 2 now and I'm sure there others in the pipeline, but 10 from Vitafoods....I doubt it. I initially thought this was possible, but in reality there are almost certainly going to overlaps in territories and this would not work as per the strategy. OPTI do not want companies crossing into each others territory because this reduces the sales potential. It is all guesswork right now. There could be more because SOH was talking in terms of "per application" and not a group of applications/products. Lets just wait and see.

[parob] 01/10/2017 18:35

Per on twitter:Short weekend with the family and off to Milano with our Business Development Director Luis Gosalbez to train the Sacco Dairy sales staff

[slartybartfaster] 01/10/2017 18:26

So elrico, are you suggesting some of the national deal could be picked off any time soon? 10 was it?

[marnewton] 01/10/2017 17:51

First of all, excuse all the lines, I know the old adage, but I find them useful.

There's not a lot to say after our high volume, bottom seeking, spike - other than the higher low is in and we can start talking about a trend change (not prematurely, I hope). To that end I've put in a nascent ascending channel.

We are above the 8 day EMA (yellow - my trading line), above the now rising 50 day SMA (blue - support) and above the barely rising 200 day SMA (red - barely support!). Hopefully by the time the 50 crosses the 200 it will be rising enough to form a proper golden cross - it should be.

The trouble with indicators is knowing which to place most weight on. Oscillators (such as the Stochastic) are useful in trendless markets. Momentum indicators (MACD) used in trending markets. Which are we in now?

Here the Stochastic would suggest we are nearing the top of the run. But MACD has just given a buy signal - for various reasons that's the one I'm placing most weight on. And historically MACD has worked quite well here. RSI has plenty of headroom.

There was a lot to say after all!¬)

M


Log scale daily candlestick chart:




O/T fathenry - I hope you are off the daily plate of chips;¬) My buy call at AMER was unequivocal, coz I actually bought. And I bought more at 18.00p. And if what I'm seeing now holds up I'll top up again.

[nimrod22] 01/10/2017 17:25

"We are in danger of hyping expectations too much and this is never a good thing to do" Appears that there's been a conversion over night.

[elrico] 01/10/2017 14:42

Paul - I think you mean the timing of the invoices falling into periods H1 OR H2 and not how they affect the reporting period.

Very good question and it is something we need to bear in mind looking forward. I can't claim to know much about invoicing and due dates, etc. I think the accepted invoice to payment is net 90 days, I guess it depends on what is agreed between parties. I think MN tend to take much longer, but again, I really have no experience here, so 90 days is probably the accepted period and 30 days for smaller companies like HLH & PharmaBiota, if I can use them as examples. There a number of OPTI PI better equipped to answer than I as they run their own businesses.

Let us assume worse case scenario of c3 months and let us use HLH as an example, their products only went on sale end of June, OPTI YE is November, so the best case HLH would have c4/5 months of revenues report in OPTI H2 accounts at BEST. All this depends on how efficient HLH and OPTI accounts departments are and of course agreed terms. As an other example, this time TATA...assuming all goes to plan and LPGOS production is ramped up in December, it is not very likely we get a real gauge of sales revenues premlims ending in May 2018, much better in H2 reporting in November. Of course by them we will have a better idea how HLH and PharmaBiota sales are progressing, we may even have some indication of SlimBiome/TATA but my focus is YE reporting in in 2018 because we should have an overlap in H1/H2 of TATA revenues as well as a clue if HLH & PharmaBiota are able to grow sales as per contractual obligations.

Note I have not checked H1/H2 reporting dates so may be out but you get the picture. Also from memory, I think SOH has indicated he is hopeful for group profitability by YE18. I suspect we will beat this because cash burn rate has decreased and we now have the added TATA/LPGOS bonus, which was not on the table at the time, just SlimBiome/TATA and I suspect SOH would have factored negotiating taking longer to conclude.

[pglancy] 01/10/2017 14:08

I never thought of it that way. Good point. I was reading tws article on big sofa today and wondered about the invoice periods and how these may effect the reporting period? Any thoughts elrico?

[elrico] 01/10/2017 13:19

Imnotlong -

We are in danger of hyping expectations too much and this is never a good thing to do, history has demonstrated this amply enough. I don't expect too much news next week. However, as Someuwin indicated, he has been informed there will be some form of an update next week - I suspect this may not be on commercial contracts from the USA, but merely touchy feely info on how the respective groups (LP-LDL/SlimBiome) had attracted significant interest from certain food groups, etc.

You rightly observe there has been little by way of commercial RNS's directly from Vitafoods despite several draft contracts submitted to OPTI. The problem we have is a backlog of deals being concluded to the point they are across the line and announced. SACCO's new global deal would have impacted on negotiations as would the summer break post Vitafoods and I guess the TATA/LPGOS became a priority for SACCO and Per, so the national type deals SOH mentioned were possibly pushed back. I could be wrong, but there does seem to be a lot of negotiations between a small BOD at OPTI/SACCO and any new deals brought in from the LV gig may push back the smallers ones even further, thus creating the illusions these 10 national SOH mentioned have not materialised even though these smaller national type deals can be much quicker to conclude. I would imagine OPTI BOD and say SACCO would be much more focussed on concluding commercial agreements with the MN partners as a priority due to the length of time they take to conclude and revenues these bring in. Sure the profit margins for the national type deals are higher, but the revenues from the MN are significantly greater....£300k - £500k pa per national type deal and £3m - £6m pa per MN deal.

What strikes me as an investor is the behaviour and risks and premiums PI place and willingness to pay for companies. We have all come across a resource play that has announced a drilling program and the speculative investor jumps on board with an army of lemmings, hoping and praying the drill bit comes good.....more often than not it does not. Of course the resource market is a well trodden sector and the risks are well know, so you would think caution would be the watch word. In stark contrast, we have OPTI, an innovative company that announces commercial deal upon commercial deal, derisked, no hope attached to a drill bit, no cash call ahead of the drilling program or 3D seismic, etc and yet apparently not real premium you often associate with a high risk resource play....and even if the drill bit is a success, it's probably years away from commercial flow rates and probably after another cash call.

Just mind-boggling observation ;)