Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[elrico] 01/10/2017 13:19

Imnotlong -

We are in danger of hyping expectations too much and this is never a good thing to do, history has demonstrated this amply enough. I don't expect too much news next week. However, as Someuwin indicated, he has been informed there will be some form of an update next week - I suspect this may not be on commercial contracts from the USA, but merely touchy feely info on how the respective groups (LP-LDL/SlimBiome) had attracted significant interest from certain food groups, etc.

You rightly observe there has been little by way of commercial RNS's directly from Vitafoods despite several draft contracts submitted to OPTI. The problem we have is a backlog of deals being concluded to the point they are across the line and announced. SACCO's new global deal would have impacted on negotiations as would the summer break post Vitafoods and I guess the TATA/LPGOS became a priority for SACCO and Per, so the national type deals SOH mentioned were possibly pushed back. I could be wrong, but there does seem to be a lot of negotiations between a small BOD at OPTI/SACCO and any new deals brought in from the LV gig may push back the smallers ones even further, thus creating the illusions these 10 national SOH mentioned have not materialised even though these smaller national type deals can be much quicker to conclude. I would imagine OPTI BOD and say SACCO would be much more focussed on concluding commercial agreements with the MN partners as a priority due to the length of time they take to conclude and revenues these bring in. Sure the profit margins for the national type deals are higher, but the revenues from the MN are significantly greater....£300k - £500k pa per national type deal and £3m - £6m pa per MN deal.

What strikes me as an investor is the behaviour and risks and premiums PI place and willingness to pay for companies. We have all come across a resource play that has announced a drilling program and the speculative investor jumps on board with an army of lemmings, hoping and praying the drill bit comes good.....more often than not it does not. Of course the resource market is a well trodden sector and the risks are well know, so you would think caution would be the watch word. In stark contrast, we have OPTI, an innovative company that announces commercial deal upon commercial deal, derisked, no hope attached to a drill bit, no cash call ahead of the drilling program or 3D seismic, etc and yet apparently not real premium you often associate with a high risk resource play....and even if the drill bit is a success, it's probably years away from commercial flow rates and probably after another cash call.

Just mind-boggling observation ;)

[parob] 01/10/2017 10:28

It looks like Tata partner with companies in territories outside of Asia to supply their ingredients in those markets. For example, CK Ingredients (not to be confused with Cereal Ingredients) supply Tata's Fossence and Gossence prebiotic fibres (GOS) to the US market. Hopefully OPTI's LPGOS will go the same route (perhaps replace):





Interesting that Colleen Madden, their 'Director of Innovation' is connected with SOH, Per, Christina and Luis on LinkedIn.



CK Ingredients had a stand at Supply Side West with Michael Chernyak, their President, in attendance - he's also connected to Per on LinkedIn.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 18:03

Mouse - Google translate

Hospital Virgen de las Nieves de Granada analyzes bacterial microorganisms and their relationship to myocardial infarction

GRANADA, 28 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) - The Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital in Granada participates in an innovative project called Cardiobiome, which is based on the analysis of the blood microbioma and the mouth of people who have suffered a myocardial infarction with the objective of using it as a biomarker in the prevention, classification, diagnosis and treatment. The microbioma is the genetic analysis of the set of microorganisms that are found in a sample taken to a person Hospital Virgen de las Nieves de Granada analyzes bacterial microorganisms and their relationship to myocardial infarction

being characteristic and unique in each patient, allowing a personalized analysis of the disease that suffers. In addition, the composition of microorganisms affects the maturation of the immune system, being a relevant factor in the development of different pathologies. Cardiobiome, led by the cardiologist Gerardo Moreno currently in the Cardiology Department of the Hospital del Campus, is the result of the collaboration between Health and other entities and aims to establish the rel ...

Leer mas: hxxp://www.europapress.es/esandalucia/granada/noticia-hospital-virgen-nieves-granada-analiza-microorganismos-bacterianos-relacion-infarto-miocardio-20170928120352.html

(c) 2015 Europa Press. Está expresamente prohibida la redistribución y la redifusión de este contenido sin su previo y expreso consentimiento.




It's copyright protected, so you will need to use google translate to read the full text.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 18:02

I guess AR is talking about II understanding the revenue model. We know the revenue model works because Probi have used to great effect with their probiotics. ie 2016 market cap of 500m based on 25m revenues in 2015.

[mouse20] 30/9/2017 16:35

Anyone speak Spanish?

hxxp://www.europapress.es/esandalucia/granada/noticia-hospital-virgen-nieves-granada-analiza-microorganismos-bacterianos-relacion-infarto-miocardio-20170928120352.html

Some kind of cardiobiome trial by the looks of it. No idea if it's connected.

[neftanikoff] 30/9/2017 16:31

And as if by magic, but i assure you, just coincidence, there is a Q & A between TW and AR on this very same subject, that i raised earler today, obviously my postings created a sort of resonance with posters and the big fish (TW & AR)

TW. OPTIBIOTIX IS MY BIGGEST HOLDING AND IT HAS HAD A BIT OF A RALLY OF LATE.
WHAT WILL TAKE IT HIGHER IN TERMS OF NEWS ? AND IS NEWS ENOUGH ?
I MEAN, DOES IT NOT NEED TO START TO SHOW REAL REVENUES AND CASH GENERATION IN
ORDER TO DRIVE MORE OF A RE-RATING ?

AR. THE SECTOR, OPTI ARE IN, HAS HUGE GROWTH OPPORTUNTIES AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SIGN UP WITH OTHER MULTI NATIONALS CUSTOMERS. SECONDLY, WHEN WE ARE ABLE TO DEMONSRATE THE REVENUE MODEL AND A LOT OF THIS IS GENERATED FROM LICENSING INCOME, THAT IS WHEN I BELIEVE THE STOCK SHOULD GET RE-RATED

Oh well that is what AR thinks and he must be close to SOH. Roll on news of the MN's and this all important revenue projection model at which will no doubt enable the housebroker to give the crucial BUY rating.

[imnotlong] 30/9/2017 14:51

I'm the first to admit that I am impatient, but I had expected more to have come from Vitafoods by now. It was nearly 5 months ago and Sacco have also been promoting lpldl since March, even longer if they did some dd on the product with their customer base prior to signing up.
Hopefully, like buses, multiple contracts will be here soon. Or anything else of Elrico's list.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 14:32

Dim - The fuss is the unknown qualifying and ex divi. Normally, I would agree the share price often retraces by the divi value - with this be any different for OPTI post SBTX? My guess (and that is all it is) is it will not. Why? SBTX stands OPTI a mere £660k, was never in the prospectus, therefore business model - it was merely a cunning business opportunity. Also, I expect the in-specie divi to be handled strategically for the benefit of both SBTX and OPTI, by this I mean I expect SOH and SBTX share price be substantially higher than they are now because both companies will be in a much better place commercially. I also expect lockin period so stock cannot be dumped for a quick profit.

I am not suggesting the will not be any negative impact on it's share price post SBTX p divi, but I would be surprised if say SBTX was valued at say, £15m and OPTI market cap fell by the same value, it would be madness and unwarranted. But hey, markets can be irrational.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 14:25

Nimrod - if your definition of ramping is purely share price driven then you don't understand your own accusation. My point was not the market cap of any of the companies you mention, but you assertion they could be subject to "takeover" ramping possibility of a premium bid price to the current gains in fortunes to them, that is my definition to a rampers post - I at least explained why, you did not as often is the case with peeps with your mindset. Just sling a little mud and run...

[nimrod22] 30/9/2017 13:35

I hardly need to ramp SCH/EPO/BGO/WAND, their share price rise speaks for themselves, up 31%, 65%, 230%, 402% in the year. I would be very happy if OPTI was doing the same.

[m4rtinu] 30/9/2017 13:12

1. Nimrod, would you tell me what attracted you to Opti in the first place? Why you sold is clear; to take a profit, which always makes sense.

2. On suggested snacks to add Slimbiome to. It seems popcorn is very popular!

MU

[dlm2602] 30/9/2017 12:10

I must admit I don't get all the fuss over when OPTI distributes its SBTX shares to OPTI shareholders and that if you sell before you miss the gain. The value of OPTI's 41.9% holding of SBTX is currently worth £5.72m. If OPTI handed them all to OPTI's shareholders now, the market Cap of OPTI would reduce by this amount much like a share going ex dividend. Whether you sell before or after, the effect is or should be neutral to the shareholder. There would be an admin cost to OPTI for carrying out this exercise and as a percentage of £5.72m it may be considered too high to justify. As the holding of SBTX increases in value maybe it would be easier to justify as the percentage falls.
I have a large holding in OPTI (Avg 57p)and am excited about the future of the company. I love the science and respect the management. Having a severely autistic son, I really hope the psychobiotic PS128 from BENED will be available through the JV with OPTI as currently the medical options are limited.

[deeppockets] 30/9/2017 12:09

Elrico, that list of next possible announcements show how many options SOH and the team have created, any one of those could make it profitable as a company. Revenues, when they start, will make a dramatic difference to profits and lead to a re-rating.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 11:27

A classic example of the pan calling the kettle "black ass."

nimrod22 - 25 Sep 2017 - 18:00:18 - 1180 of 1209 Safecharge - SCH
SCH,EPO,BGO,WAND are all companies that are on a bit of a roll, and possible take over targets. The trick is to be in and out at the right times and still catch the rise in share price when the takeover arrives!!!
Possibly OPTI maybe another (today's jump maybe short lived, TW continuously ramping)if it can finally nails down some cash flow.
..............

Nimrod ramped several companies in one post - but wait, does he have a position in any? Would we ever know for sure!!

Ramp example - suggesting several companie could be subject to a takeover! Any evidence for this, nimrod? Nah, don't bother.

[elrico] 30/9/2017 11:13

Parob makes a compelling case for the historical events, share price stagnation and reasons for it - all accurate and true. Of course, the prolonged stagnation would not be the case had we firm evidence of revenues - only recently has SOH ventured to guesstimates potential revenues for SlimBiome and LP-LDL. Nimrod may have a case for market correction, but this market correction has been predicted for 2 years now and we are still waiting for it. Accusations of ramping are commonplace, but the accuser never venture an example of a specific case and counters it. In such cases it is alway prudent to assume the accuser has an agenda. In this case he sold in April, fine his choice, he chose to throw away is SBTX shares, only he will know if the (assumed) profits were worth it.

Anyone looking to buy in now will almost certainly have a shorter wait out of the current trading range.

What will the trigger be for the move up into a new positive trend? Take your pick from 13-14 possible triggers or combination more likely.

TATA/SlimBiome going into production
TAT/LPGOS going into production (we know this is scheduled for Nov and ramped up in Dec
Further national deals concluded from Vitafoods
SlimBiome/CII colaboration
SACCO coming good with US commercial partners for the new dairy products
P&G finally being outed
Boots retail launch
H&B retail launch
Bened product launch
Better than expected sales data from HLL or ParmaBiota
SBTX shares distribution
SweetBiotix IPO
Or II interest
FINNCAP revenue guidance and share price target

There are potential triggers from existing known events (listed) yet the scope for new commercial agreements post SSW beyond what SACCO had already had lined up prior to the exhibition.

No doubt nimrod will view each possible event on the list as a prime example for ramp accusations. Nevertheless, it does not mean I am wrong, I am just more confident of my research than he is. Am I wearing rose tinted? No, I believe in the science backed data, trust the BOD and know they have carefully selected companies that can take OPTI as a group to the next level with minimal risk. As far as I can see, there are three major risk factors - market crash, YSF dumping outside of their stated strategy - "orderly exit" (thus far large chunks placed) or SOH taking a turn for the worse...god forbid the latter never happens.

OPTI is a complex company to understand, so is the new disruptive market its products are designed for - they are also groundbreaking and estimating revenues from new products is impossible. The fact remains, the science has been independently proven, has been peer reviewed by medical specialist in their field, OPTI has been significantly derisked as a company now it is transitioning from R&D to commercial.

[bobdown2] 30/9/2017 10:20

Just my opinion. We suddenly have the appearance of some with a negative spin at a time when Opti are really doing the business. We already know that Mr Evans,s share sell dropped the price. And now it looks like we have a buyer who is accumalating. View yesterday's early trade of 32,250 and one of 25k and then one of 50k at the close. These buys are always priced at the mid price to cause uncertainty. Unfortunately this type of buying seems to be a drag on the share price as the price is dropped to fill the order. More good news and we will move higher. What I am hoping for is that we do not have the arrival of those that disturb the nice balance of this thread.

[vanduke] 30/9/2017 10:06

Shrewdmole, I respect your opinion, but I must disagree. If the bottom falls out of the market then the correction will be harder on AIM non-revenue generating stocks.

[neftanikoff] 30/9/2017 09:59

Now i dont think even the most bullish of shareholders here if they being completely TRUTHFULL would own up to be entirely happy with share price siseways movement.
Very, very simply, what is the big question is "what will the catalyst be in order to get the share price moving in the right direction?
Will it be
A) further announcements of some desription, like partnerships in USA and other parts, sale of goods in UK , like Boots and H&B, more detail on sale of goods, more on the healthy sugur, etc., and so on
or
B) a longer wait until reports and accounts are produced, which will give evidence of revenues/cash at bank/salaries paid and ulimately profits.

We all hope it will be A) as the market anticipates profits to come. If it is A) then we are just waiting day by day for news via RNS, just like we have been doing. So far these RNS 's have had a muted effect on the sp, which perhaps been down to initial holders selling or so some have indicated.

PS i see no reason to filter Nimrod, only the rose tinted brigade will resort to that policy.

[shrewdmole] 30/9/2017 09:58

Nimrod

Everyone's allowed an opinion but I think rather than endless ramping it's genuine enthusiasm both through in depth research and long term following of the company.

With regards a market correction, that's always a risk, however it usually makes people research better and quality growth companies in ground breaking sectors will hold up better than others.

Let's not forget this is an absolute disruptive science that is way ahead of its peers!!

S

[nimrod22] 30/9/2017 09:37

No, you're right I did not top up, but as mentioned above the endlessly cloying ramping of this share doesn't appear to be warranted at present. Its easy enough to buy back in if/when there's some real news (cash).

[parob] 30/9/2017 09:10

Nimrod, IMO the reason we've been consolidating for such a long period is we've had large holders who were in at the IPO selling at huge profits (400-1000%) from 40p (helium) to recently (DE). Seneca and YSF have sold millions too. Who can blame them when you consider the profits they've made. I would say the price has held up well considering. All those shares are now in new hands ready for the next leg up. OK, YSF still have millions but they haven't regularly dripped sales into the market like Helium, Seneca and DE did, instead selling large chunks infrequently. The last 2 batches were June 2016 and March 2017. With the above-mentioned large holders out, the microbiome gaining more media and public attention and as we enter the commercialisation stage with regular newsflow, I would argue there hasn't been a better time to invest during the past two years and thanks to DE selling you can still buy in cheaper than SOH's family (75p).As I've mentioned before and Nicola Duke (@NicTrades) tweeted on the 2/6/17:"Good news is sideways consolidation is usually followed by a big move in the direction of the trend..."I think you can forget your 62p top up. You had your chance at 65p and didn't take it by the sound of things.

[bobdown2] 30/9/2017 06:53

Very easy...gone...

[nimrod22] 30/9/2017 06:06

I made a fair whack of cash when I sold OPTI at start of April, and put some of it in an ISA, but its been sideways since.
I think its the endless daily hype that's wearing thin.
I'll wait and see, but I would suggest not to plough too much in just now, with a market correction more liable to arrive before cash in OPTI (no doubt plenty of people will shout at me for saying it).