Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Optibiotix H. LSE:OPTI London Ordinary Share GB00BP0RTP38 ORD 2P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -4.00p -5.52% 68.50p 182,241 10:43:10
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
67.00p 70.00p 69.50p 68.00p 69.50p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Health Care Equipment & Services 0.3 -1.5 1.7 41.0 55.13

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DateSubject
23/5/2018
09:20
Optibiotix H. Daily Update: Optibiotix H. is listed in the Health Care Equipment & Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker OPTI. The last closing price for Optibiotix H. was 72.50p.
Optibiotix H. has a 4 week average price of 59p and a 12 week average price of 54.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 79p while the 1 year low share price is currently 54p.
There are currently 80,485,712 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 250,153 shares. The market capitalisation of Optibiotix H. is Ā£55,132,712.72.
23/4/2018
10:36
pj 1: Additional comments from me following UKI. Thanks for feedback from others who attended here and on Twitter. I would have been one of the first PI's there as I was there bright and early despite a number of Black Sheep the night before after walking circa 5 miles in 26 degrees. SoH was the only Director present at that time. My comments are aimed at being constructive and genuine and not an attempt to ''de-ramp'' the Company. I am long of OPTI and yet to sell any positions. I am also aware the Co monitor the BB and the probability of comments being fed back to them. The only freebie on offer for Breakfast was a Go Figure Cacoa and Orange Flapjack. This was shared with 2 other unknown attendees over coffee later on. The consensus was that they were dry, tasteless and synthetic. Like bars 20 years ago. However, we all did miss the print advising to take with water so I am unsure if that would have affected the texture and taste. I didn't lose any weight! I thought SoH looked weary and I am aware he had been travelling with ref to agreements the day before. There is clearly an agenda to control costs internally but I would question if these controls are perhaps too tight? There has to be some concern the Co is too dependant on SoH currently. Obviously part of his ''job'' is to develop the Co so it can operate without him. I am unsure how far down that road they are. (not far is gut feel)-which leads onto the next point.... Some criticism here. I asked ref ''late'' Accounts. This was answered by ''they are not late'' which ok, is correct. So I rephrased the question by ''prompt accounts and reporting''. SoH defended this by contrast to other years and that the SBTX listing had delayed things , to which I pointed out Accounts have never been issued ''promptly'', after year end, and that prompt reporting builds investor trust that the Co is in tight control of its finances. There is a definite alignment between Co's who's Accounts come out at the last minute and declining share prices IMO. There was reference to an FD, which wasn't correct. The FD is an external ''supplier'' and there lies the reason for the delay in issuing Results I would suggest. The external FD or CFO will not be prioritising as much as an ''employee''. Again I would ask if the ship is being run too tightly to control costs? At some point these overheads will have to be increased imo. For example who is dealing with debt chasing etc etc etc. Note in controlling overhead costs OPTI pay in region of either £20k or £30k p.a. for the ''FD''. (I think it's £30K) A full time FD would be a minimum of £100K and probably more As expected there was a brick wall with ref to any figures or timeframes. I believe this is part of an under promise/ over deliver type strategy. It is worth remembering that Directors time frame targets rarely are as near term as Private Investors. Joking aside 'imminent'' in Director speak can and has meant 2 years In other Companys. Any figures for the Market at the moment would be too much of a ''guess'' and finger in the air job. Brief discussion on the share price and possible market (market maker) manipulation. Despite the 2 year down channel this could be long term profit taking. In reality little the Co can do to correct the share price. (I fully accept differing opinions on this ) Other than that I would agree with other comments posted so no point in repeating.
21/4/2018
21:07
onedayrodders: Hey all, myself and Trotters were at the UK Investor show today and were chatting with SOH for quite a while.. I'm sure Trotters will be posting a few nuggets later but I know the SBTX divi is an Important issue many have asked about so here is what he said. They are absolutely aware and focused on making this as fair as possible by not allowing short term traders to benefit or damage either OPTI or SBTX share price. Options being discussed ... 1. Lock in period - Unlikely as regulators do not like this type of arrangement and view it as restricting the market. 2. Staggered benefit, for example, OPTI will give shareholders say 1000 SBTX shares and promise another 1000 shares the next year providing the first 1000 shares have not been sold. 3. Take advantage of increasing interest in Skinbiotix by selling a % of OPTI's stake in SBTX to by Institutional investors and delivering a SBTX cash divi. (Therefore delivering the SBTX divi promise, adding long term Institutional shareholders and removing volatility in the share price - my take) The qualifying for any divi, either shares or cash will be controlled by a record date and that cannot be a date in the past and will be from close of business on the day the divi details are announced. So they will be looking to time that towards the end of the day to allow the smallest window possible for the AIM trading vultures (my words not his !) That's from memory so hope I got it right (Trotters..correct me if I'm wrong) ODR
11/4/2018
17:22
judijudi: Opti share price dropping blamed on Trump That’s the best yet :)
04/4/2018
19:26
michaelmouse: Let's start with this shall we:- "We know your true game going on your persistence to troll Opti via multiple usernames over the years." I am a "free" member of ADVFN and wouldn't dream of parting with any cash to join for so very many reasons. If you wish, you have permission to contact ADVFN and check that I have only ever used the michaelmouse username. I will presume that you, Eric and the others give me permission to do the same? Only the saddest of tw*ts needs more than one username. Does that make it clear? Secondly, are you really naïve enough to believe that all their partners are going to spend multi-millions on marketing Opti's "magic" ingredient? For instance, think about the online store. Unless they do substantial marketing then nobody will know it even exists. Don't rely on their partners to stump up for this. Besides it'll take years to try and educate people about how their "magic" formula differs from the thousands already out there. Thirdly, you no nothing about large holdings in micro-cap companies if you think that they can cash in their SBTX holding anytime after the lock-in period has ended. They couldn't sell 5% of SBTX at anything near the current share price never mind 42%. As I've said many times already, they're locked-in well beyond the official period. If the share price of SBTX had taken off, as I am sure they'd hoped, when it floated then they may have indeed found it easier to sell some and raise some cash. However, as I predicted, the share price fell back below the placing price, and the illiquidity of the shares will prevent them selling enough to raise any cash in the foreseeable future. Hence, (imo) they have no choice but to raise cash through the normal channels. At the sbtx flotation I said it was irresponsible of SOH to call SBTX "a rising asset", it can be "a falling asset" as well and highly illiquid which means the shares can't be sold in a hurry. Finally, you are naïve to think that the public at large will quickly see the benefits of Opti's technology. If I go into any supermarket then there are thousands of different products claiming all sorts of wonderful things albeit in a very clever way. It'll take at least a decade for a new comer to make an impression even if it does at all. In the meantime, the competition catches up or an enhanced or improved technology supercedes it. The market is saturated with similar types of product. If you're thinking that the partners are already established with their products then it's true to an extent, but the products which include Opti's ingredients will be new to the customer and if they don't sell well then they'll just drop Opti as a supplier and discontinue the product line. As for full year 2018 results, I'll await them with much interest because therein lies a huge problem, the company just won't give any guidance. It must have some idea now surely we're already 4/5months into their 2018 year? After all, whatever investors own views are, ultimately it's the figures that will drive the share price up or down. I personally can't envisage them getting to cash flow break even anytime soon, and hence I see a fund raising is inevitable at a discount to today's share price. As ever, these are just my opinions and thoughts. If others differ then that's their prerogative.
21/3/2018
18:55
diablo26261: fyi - no one has lost any free shares in Skinbiotix by selling now - if they ever issue any the Opti share price will drop as all priced in (theory of efficient markets though clearly not 100% accurate). You could well end up with so few shares they are uneconomic to sell anyway. The obsession with this still amazes me - forget it....... Be better if Opti demonstrated it had some actual revenue streams - we all know the theory on all these amazing products and contracts but has been wearing thin on the realisation front. As markets become more volatile and sell off this is a share that will suffer more than most due to this (complete lack of revenue visibility).
13/3/2018
19:25
elrico: Michaelmouse answered while he still avoids the elephant in the room. MM: Firstly, why does it take them 5 months to prepare relatively simple accounts for the year ending in November 2017? To fill the void, surely they could issue a brief trading statement with guidance on revenues and cash remaining? Most reputable companies don't have a problem with this. Me: 3 months, 5 months, it matters not as long as they fall within the 6 month reporting limit. And you shouldn't use the word "reputable" when invested in frauds (AVN, INTQ) and a company that has restated accounts (TRAKM8). OPTI usually report interims within 4 months and FY 5 months. This info is on the company website, as has been pointed out before. MM:Secondly, by now after announcing a number of agreements they must have some idea about revenues for 2018? Me: Another double standard...lets keep it simple shall we, 7DIG, AVN, TRAKM8, IND, STL; have any of these given revenue guidance for the year ahead? If they have, I missed them. In any event, OPTI is barely 6 months (accounting calendar) into transition from R&D to commercial yet, and many of the partnerships are wrapped up in NDA's, which has attributed to the stagemation thus far. Surely you should be applauding the BOD for not ramping up their book, as so many AIM companies do. In any event, how do you quantify sales in new markets, with new products, using new science? Please explain! MM: Thirdly, the figures are really all that matter presently. At a market cap. of £50m, the potential has already been "baked in" to the share price and has been for two years. The figures they publish still need to justify the current market cap. never mind justify substantial gains in the share price Me: To a degree, I guess I can allow a little leeway with this opinion. However, I would point to the industry valuation for SweetBiotix of £20+m, just 1 of several possible spinouts, and it has no commercial footprint yet, no commercial partner that we know of yet. I would also point out OptiBiotic platform has recently enhanced the LGG strain, the world's most popular probiotic...I'll spare your blushes by not mentioning the value of this strain. OPTI have several strains, which has real potential to be significantly more valuable.....in time. In short, the IP has real value, especially those commercialised via SlimBiome and LP-LDL. MM: Anyway, it's aimho. On a more positive note, if you truly believe in the company and its potential then just hang on in there over the long term, but carefully monitor the figures because ultimately they will drive the share price. The rest is all speculation on what could or might be. Me: Ah, we are aligned. You have long advocated trusting your research and hold long term. And yes of course, one should always monitor what the company says, read between the lines and pay particular attention to companies accounts, especially those that are forced to restate profits as losses....cough, cough! MM: That's all from me for a while. Me: It's probably best, you made a hash of that and I suspect you are perhaps a little concerned the level of partnerships may well prove worthy of rewarding those of use that stand by our research, speak to the company and look at the humanbiome sector and see perhaps what others do not. Don't feel pressured to respond...It's best you don't - keep your head down. ;)
10/2/2018
22:08
parob: A repost of Risky's excellent post from 29th Jan:Had some time to kill on a flight so thought I'd give my thoughts over recent discussions on here. For those interested:Opti have been able to keep cash burn so low because they do not sell the products themselves. The fact is if they raised £10-£20m they could fund a marketing campaign and the products would be out there much faster though costs would be significant and risks far greater. As many will realise Opti rely on partners to sell the end product pulling in the cash through the license of its IP. It's a slow process as it involves not only discussions on deal structure and terms but actually getting these partners on track to create sell and advertise an entirely new product under their own branding and getting them to deliver within a certain timescale (though all at little to no cost to Opti when the ££ hits the bank). The model involves these partners going out and testing demand for the product, making sure stock levels will be sufficient to cope with continuous demand on launch, coming up with packaging, formulations, marketing campaigns and sometimes testing these new combinations together to see if there is any synergy between the ingredients. Obviously before all this there will be discussions from the interest leading to a contract and an RNS. It's not as quick and easy as negotiating the number of pencils your going to sell striking a deal and organising the transaction. The larger the partner and scale clearly the longer it will take to follow the process seeing as they will be making a significant investment. Galenicum for example (£100m+ revenues with double digit annual growth) they are a medium sized partner operating over multiple territories therefore a lot of planning and time will be required hence the H2 rollout. The first order will likely be significant for Opti imo due to their scale. Also take for example the recent surprise news via proactive interview of an American firm ordering LPLDL to trial before launch. This would suggest they are pretty sizeable and maybe have gone for a soft launch to test demand before putting in a larger order and signing a contract. An early order from the US whatever the case is a very very good sign.Some companies will be faster to market with Optis IP like HLH Biopharma who replaced an existing cholesterol reducing ingredient 'AB LIFE' made by AB-Biotics. AB-Biotics is an established Spanish pharmaceutical probiotic competitor that currently sells £6m+ annually of this inferior ingredient. Clearly represents what the industry thinks of the product and shows revenue potential for LPLDL.There is no revenue guidance yet because these companies have no clue how much they are going to sell before going out and actually doing it. SOH will also be trying to keep these companies within a particular timeframe from signing a contract to fully readying the product for launch, however they will not launch until they're completely ready seeing as they are taking all the risk so determine Y1 Y2 revenue accurately would be impossible. I'm glad Opti have not guessed and shows the experience and confidence of management. SOH must have investors nagging him for this daily. Getting something as important as revenue guidance wrong would be detrimental to the company going forward. Currently the share price is in limbo because of this so definitely take advantage if you have spare change. Low 60s is an absolute no brainer.Opti are changing an industry through their technology like the digital camera did to the Kodak - these pharmaceutical grade products are not available yet and won't be for maybe 4+ years as virtually all of Optis competitors have gone the costly, risky and time consuming Pharma route. Opti are years ahead of the microbiome curve due to their chosen route to market and the lower regulatory hurdles. When these Pharma groups start rolling out these products and more of these types of microbiome products become available the Optibiotic platform should become an extremely well sought after technology considering its enhancing abilities. Big pharma will be wanting their products to be as good as they possibly can be opening up an absolutely huge opportunity for Opti. LTH will hit the jackpot with this platform. Opti are becoming viewed due to their research as one of the leaders in an emerging market forecasted to be one of the fastest growth opportunities. Winning awards in yearly succession at global industry events such as Probiota tells its own story. Only an idiot would have you believe the corporates are not interested. For industry to value sweetbiotix at £20m already before having any type of commercial deal or product selling tells you a lot about the IP and the discussions that are taking place. That's almost half the current market cap and sweetbiotix though huge is still just 1 of 3 opportunities within the Optibiotic division alone.Opti will not necessarily be a guaranteed success however it's diversity in to so many major markets and the immense progress on all fronts means it's now highly likely. Opti have over £1m in cash, £95k cash burn per month, growing revenues from multiple partners and £4/5m of Skin holding which could be realised anytime after the April lock in. Very comfortable position to be in financially meaning Opti can play hardball or even walk away from the large players if any exclusivity deal does not maximise the potential value of the IP yet- the Opti bod know exactly what they're doing and the potential value of this IP if fully exploited. Skin, whilst offering a significant opportunity for Opti has mitigated any need to dilute via placement. SOH does not seem to be the kind of chap to lie to the market or lose track on the financials considering how tightly the ship has been run to date. Quite honestly I've never come across a company with such a strict control over finances.Even though they do not excite the market I can not stress how important these deals with HLH, Galenicum, Pharmabiota etc are to Opti as it will lead Opti to gain a far better exclusivity deal from a corporate then if it had no other revenues and relied heavily on a deal from a corporate. Corporate will want some type of exclusivity usually over a territory so clearly the amount needs to be significant to Opti. Likely this is where the waiting for the 'right deal' quote from SOH takes its meaning. By proving commercial viability through other outlets it presents little risk to the corporates hence increasing Optis stance in negotiations. The bigger the risk for them clearly the less they will offer Opti to take it on. Let's not forget they are making a huge commitment to rollout Optis IP. Opti just sits back and waits for the money from the license. It's as profitable a model you will come across but takes time to build. These smaller early deals will ultimately allow Opti to demand a larger MOQ or a Royalty payment for exclusivity over a particular territory/continent than if it was going solely for a deal with the corporates from the start. It's how to quickly increase the value of the IP within the industry very early on.On balance there is only one thing that concerns me about Opti at the moment and that is the time it takes to start building the revenues following signing these deals before the cash gets low and the market starts to get nervous. Though as discussed Skinbio shares of £5m mitigates this risk and Optis main outgoings are R&D based therefore they can cut these down if absolute necessary. Revenues should be building with the boss forecasting profit by YE 2018 so clearly revenues are on their way in size from somewhere. Of course I would like more deals to be signed but with such an unusual low cost model it's not surprising the time it takes even though the technology is brilliant. Holding out for the right deal will ultimately create a solid sustainable business for LTH.I've increased my holding by 10% the past month. The model is what is causing the slow appearance of commercialisation though anyone paying attention will realise IP is the most valuable thing Opti have and is what the business is built upon. Selling it cheaply early on would be the most stupid thing they could do. Therefore holding out building the smaller deals first is actually how you maximise and 'wait for the right deal'. When these exclusivity deals come through they'll be higher due to the methods used to get that better deal. When all this good news comes together in terms of potential ££ the market will be scrambling for the stock I have no doubt that will happen hence why I'm still here following my most successful investment decision to date. Unless you need to sell you should be rubbing your hands at these prices. Once all the deals really start flowing and the money is shown revenues should grow in excess of 100% per year, more when these exclusivity deals get signed off. Risky - from sunny Australia
29/1/2018
02:50
riskybusiness1: Had some time to kill on a flight so thought I'd give my thoughts over recent discussions on here. For those interested:Opti have been able to keep cash burn so low because they do not sell the products themselves. The fact is if they raised £10-£20m they could fund a marketing campaign and the products would be out there much faster though costs would be significant and risks far greater. As many will realise Opti rely on partners to sell the end product pulling in the cash through the license of its IP. It's a slow process as it involves not only discussions on deal structure and terms but actually getting these partners on track to create sell and advertise an entirely new product under their own branding and getting them to deliver within a certain timescale (though all at little to no cost to Opti when the ££ hits the bank). The model involves these partners going out and testing demand for the product, making sure stock levels will be sufficient to cope with continuous demand on launch, coming up with packaging, formulations, marketing campaigns and sometimes testing these new combinations together to see if there is any synergy between the ingredients. Obviously before all this there will be discussions from the interest leading to a contract and an RNS. It's not as quick and easy as negotiating the number of pencils your going to sell striking a deal and organising the transaction. The larger the partner and scale clearly the longer it will take to follow the process seeing as they will be making a significant investment. Galenicum for example (£100m+ revenues with double digit annual growth) they are a medium sized partner operating over multiple territories therefore a lot of planning and time will be required hence the H2 rollout. The first order will likely be significant for Opti imo due to their scale. Also take for example the recent surprise news via proactive interview of an American firm ordering LPLDL to trial before launch. This would suggest they are pretty sizeable and maybe have gone for a soft launch to test demand before putting in a larger order and signing a contract. An early order from the US whatever the case is a very very good sign.Some companies will be faster to market with Optis IP like HLH Biopharma who replaced an existing cholesterol reducing ingredient 'AB LIFE' made by AB-Biotics. AB-Biotics is an established Spanish pharmaceutical probiotic competitor that currently sells £6m+ annually of this inferior ingredient. Clearly represents what the industry thinks of the product and shows revenue potential for LPLDL.There is no revenue guidance yet because these companies have no clue how much they are going to sell before going out and actually doing it. SOH will also be trying to keep these companies within a particular timeframe from signing a contract to fully readying the product for launch, however they will not launch until they're completely ready seeing as they are taking all the risk so determine Y1 Y2 revenue accurately would be impossible. I'm glad Opti have not guessed and shows the experience and confidence of management. SOH must have investors nagging him for this daily. Getting something as important as revenue guidance wrong would be detrimental to the company going forward. Currently the share price is in limbo because of this so definitely take advantage if you have spare change. Low 60s is an absolute no brainer.Opti are changing an industry through their technology like the digital camera did to the Kodak - these pharmaceutical grade products are not available yet and won't be for maybe 4+ years as virtually all of Optis competitors have gone the costly, risky and time consuming Pharma route. Opti are years ahead of the microbiome curve due to their chosen route to market and the lower regulatory hurdles. When these Pharma groups start rolling out these products and more of these types of microbiome products become available the Optibiotic platform should become an extremely well sought after technology considering its enhancing abilities. Big pharma will be wanting their products to be as good as they possibly can be opening up an absolutely huge opportunity for Opti. LTH will hit the jackpot with this platform. Opti are becoming viewed due to their research as one of the leaders in an emerging market forecasted to be one of the fastest growth opportunities. Winning awards in yearly succession at global industry events such as Probiota tells its own story. Only an idiot would have you believe the corporates are not interested. For industry to value sweetbiotix at £20m already before having any type of commercial deal or product selling tells you a lot about the IP and the discussions that are taking place. That's almost half the current market cap and sweetbiotix though huge is still just 1 of 3 opportunities within the Optibiotic division alone.Opti will not necessarily be a guaranteed success however it's diversity in to so many major markets and the immense progress on all fronts means it's now highly likely. Opti have over £1m in cash, £95k cash burn per month, growing revenues from multiple partners and £4/5m of Skin holding which could be realised anytime after the April lock in. Very comfortable position to be in financially meaning Opti can play hardball or even walk away from the large players if any exclusivity deal does not maximise the potential value of the IP yet- the Opti bod know exactly what they're doing and the potential value of this IP if fully exploited. Skin, whilst offering a significant opportunity for Opti has mitigated any need to dilute via placement. SOH does not seem to be the kind of chap to lie to the market or lose track on the financials considering how tightly the ship has been run to date. Quite honestly I've never come across a company with such a strict control over finances.Even though they do not excite the market I can not stress how important these deals with HLH, Galenicum, Pharmabiota etc are to Opti as it will lead Opti to gain a far better exclusivity deal from a corporate then if it had no other revenues and relied heavily on a deal from a corporate. Corporate will want some type of exclusivity usually over a territory so clearly the amount needs to be significant to Opti. Likely this is where the waiting for the 'right deal' quote from SOH takes its meaning. By proving commercial viability through other outlets it presents little risk to the corporates hence increasing Optis stance in negotiations. The bigger the risk for them clearly the less they will offer Opti to take it on. Let's not forget they are making a huge commitment to rollout Optis IP. Opti just sits back and waits for the money from the license. It's as profitable a model you will come across but takes time to build. These smaller early deals will ultimately allow Opti to demand a larger MOQ or a Royalty payment for exclusivity over a particular territory/continent than if it was going solely for a deal with the corporates from the start. It's how to quickly increase the value of the IP within the industry very early on.On balance there is only one thing that concerns me about Opti at the moment and that is the time it takes to start building the revenues following signing these deals before the cash gets low and the market starts to get nervous. Though as discussed Skinbio shares of £5m mitigates this risk and Optis main outgoings are R&D based therefore they can cut these down if absolute necessary. Revenues should be building with the boss forecasting profit by YE 2018 so clearly revenues are on their way in size from somewhere. Of course I would like more deals to be signed but with such an unusual low cost model it's not surprising the time it takes even though the technology is brilliant. Holding out for the right deal will ultimately create a solid sustainable business for LTH.I've increased my holding by 10% the past month. The model is what is causing the slow appearance of commercialisation though anyone paying attention will realise IP is the most valuable thing Opti have and is what the business is built upon. Selling it cheaply early on would be the most stupid thing they could do. Therefore holding out building the smaller deals first is actually how you maximise and 'wait for the right deal'. When these exclusivity deals come through they'll be higher due to the methods used to get that better deal. When all this good news comes together in terms of potential ££ the market will be scrambling for the stock I have no doubt that will happen hence why I'm still here following my most successful investment decision to date. Unless you need to sell you should be rubbing your hands at these prices. Once all the deals really start flowing and the money is shown revenues should grow in excess of 100% per year, more when these exclusivity deals get signed off. Risky - from sunny Australia
28/11/2017
07:44
michaelmouse: The Capital re-organization proposed this morning is a non-event. Just a hoop that they need to pass through having said they would give Opti shareholders "free shares" in SBTX a year ago. Firstly, it begs the question why wasn't this done months ago? Secondly, it now suggests that the distribution is not a given, "should circumstances in the future make it desirable to do so." Thirdly, the biggest problem is this. Opti can only give away the shares in SBTX that they own. Herein lies the problem. How can they give them away without trashing the share price of both companies? Indeed why would they want to give them away? Think about it. If they give them away to shareholders then Opti's assets shrink by the amount they give away and the share price will fall. The SBTX share price would also fall in anticipation of the give away shares being sold directly into the market (it would be impossible to manage a lock-in period as some have suggested). The GM to propose a Capital Re-organization is a sop to keep you interested and attempt to prop up the share price. The elephant in the room is that they have reached the end of the financial year with no word on revenues, cash-flow, losses, cash remaining etc. As ever, aimho.
08/11/2017
20:10
parob: Had to copy and paste this well thought out post from Novy kluk on the iii bb. I've actually met this chap at 2 investor presentations: Subject: Crude attempt at a Target Price During 2016 when OPTI was developing its science, it had no real revenues. Its share price "soared" however based on the anticipation of its tremendous potential. In those early days it was no doubt over valued in economic terms. During 2017 with the"risk off" attitude of most investors, its share price has been range bound, despite the growing number of significant deals struck with large "players". One might now consider the company is undervalued against its revenue potential from those deals currently in the public domain. Its with that background I've attempted to make a crude target price calculation as a sort of "reality check" and to validate my own LTH in the company. I use the term "crude" calculations as a number of inputs are down to my own assumptions, and not all of those will be correct! However the following information is in the public domain (not my assumptions) and understood to be from reputable third parties and authoritative; * Each of the major contracts currently being announced will net OPTI between £250k and £500k per year. * OPTI's operating costs are virtually fixed and change little with the number of deals struck. They currently stand at £1m per year. * There are six LPLDL deals of substance already agreed, including the Galenicum LPLDL on 27th October. Apparently SOH had said publicly he expects another four to be agreed in the near future. This week's Supply and profit sharing agreement with Knighton Foods is for Slim Biome. So there are still a further 4 LPLDL deals expected to be announced in the short term. That will make ten LPLDL deals in place. * OPTI are paid their royalty revenues either 3 months or 6 months in arrears. * Some clients like Galenicum are fast off the mark and launch immediately a deal is struck. Other partners are slower. So it's possible that a deal signed today with a partner who has a "slow launch", will not generate any revenues for a year. But equally a deal could see revenues generated within three months. It seems almost certain there will be more than the ten deals mentioned above and each worth between £250k and £500k to OPTI. And that's only from the LPLDL Stream. SlimBiome is gaining traction now and a further large deal with Tata is expected to be announced "soon". Given the size and scope of the Indian market, revenue of £1.0 million is suggested from that particular deal (if and when it happens). Then there is the Sugars Stream which SOH has in the past suggested will have the greatest potential! Those are the inputs I've gathered in the public domain. The following inputs are my own assumptions; * Due to the "slow start" effect and quarterly or half yearly royalty payments, I've assumed no revenue is generated in the current year. i.e. The initial year a deal is struck. This is clearly incorrect. But I don't want to over state revenues and/or guess at partner start-up timings. * The average net revenue from each deal will be £375k in year one of revenue, increasing 10% compound for subsequent years. * The number of deals and revenues; LPLDL Stream: 10 deals by end 2017. Due to "slow start" and royalty payments, assume no revenue in current year i.e. the year the deal is struck. So revenue in 2018 is £3.75 million. 7 additional deals during 2018. So revenue in 2019 is £6.750 million. 5 additional deals during 2019. So revenue in 2020 is £9.300 million. SlimBiome Stream: Whilst there are a couple of Slimbiome deals in 2017, assume effectively they are in 2018. So Assume 10 deals during 2018. But one is expected to be with Tata where the revenue is thought more likely to be £1.0 million. So due to "slow start" etc no revenues are assumed in 2018. But revenue in 2019 is £4.375 million 5 additional deals during 2019. But I assume one deal is in the USA where I assume revenue is likely to be £1.0 million. So revenue in 2020 is £7.312 million. Sugars Stream: Assume 10 deals during 2018. Revenues only start in 2019. So revenue in 2019 is £3.75 million Assume a further 10 deals in 2019. So revenue in 2020 is £7.875 million. * No revenues are assumed from OPTI's 42% stake in SkinBiotheraputics. At UK Investor (April 2017) I was told that first product(s) would launch in 18 months time. So first product(s) possibly in October 2018. Revenues only likely from H2 2019. But are likely to be significant, particularly in 2020! * No revenues are assumed from OPTI's planned Internet on-line direct sales. Though that will generate revenues when it's eventually launched. * No revenues assumed from the cross selling opportunity from the JV with Bened. Though again there will be revenue from that source at some stage. * OPTI's cash currently stands at £1.6 million. So with costs of £1.0 million/year and cash starting to flow in, cash should not be an issue unless a further acquisition is considered. But if there were a cash call for such an acquisition, logically it would be earnings accretive. * It seems very logical that once OPTI's income streams become established, the P/E multiple for a such a growth company with such predictable earnings, will be quite substantial. Possibly 25 or 30? For my calculations I have assumed a constant P/E of 20 for all years. Though I think that will prove very conservative with a 2019 P/E of say 23 and for 2020 a P/E of 26 being more likely. Do the numbers - it makes a very big impact!! So from the above (Using a £1.0 million/year cost figure) the net earnings numbers become: 2018 - £3.75m - £1.0m = £2.75m. OPTI has 78.793 million shares in issue. So with a P/E of 20, the target price is 70p. (Market Cap of £55m) So the current market price is at last justified with economics (next year), rather than the anticipation on which it was driven during 2016. 2019 - £13.875m total net earnings. Price becomes 350p. (Market cap of £276m) 2020 - £23.487m total net earnings. Price target becomes 596p. (Market cap of £470m) Comments and intelligent critique welcomed! GLTA NK
Optibiotix H. share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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