Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[primal123] 10/2/2017 09:27

To be fair to him he did say there would be something this week and there was!

[scotty1] 10/2/2017 09:16

Hope your hospital stay went well Diamond Fibre but never the less it would seem your predictions are just guess work as thought :)

[diablo26261] 10/2/2017 08:37

I cannot understand the preoccupation with an RNS on TATA, the news is out but like everything here for the past year, shows potential but when will they actually start to show me the money....

Once they have a commercial deal which will generate revenue (and hopefully profit and free cash flow) then that is something we want to know about and will act as a driver of the share price. Current market cap is not supported by financials but potential (some might call it ramping).

I also await with interest the Skinbiotix spin off and how much cash they will need to raise as part of this (who laps up the highly profitable warrants etc - think we know those insiders) to support it ongoing as part of the process.

[michaelmouse] 10/2/2017 08:26

In further reference to post 885, and I mentioned this before, consider this:-

As well as fierce competition in each and every area from both old and new products, here's a dilemma

If the USP for Go-Figure is Opti's "feel fuller for longer" then as soon as they license the technology to someone else then that USP for Go-Figure is lost and so are sales. By licensing to others they will just cannibalise their Go-Figure sales? and so it goes on.

[judijudi] 10/2/2017 08:22

Wharevoh
Competition keeps you on your Toes. Keeps you keen and driven
Always good to see who's coming up behind you, how far away from you they are and what they have in their back pocket!!

[scotty1] 10/2/2017 08:16

Seems a bit of a silly statement there jj

"Anyway competition is healthy.Never good to have the playing field to yourself"

I would say it's very good to have the playing field to yourself with no competition the fruits of your labour are all yours ;)))

[someuwin] 10/2/2017 07:45

Nothing new - just a reformulation of existing pharmaceuticals (with all their known side effects and issues).

OPTI's cardiovascular products are safe, natural, low dosage etc. Can be used as food ingredients or additives and, because they work in a completely different way, can be used in addition to existing treatments too.

...And will be on the shelves within a few weeks.

[rafboy] 10/2/2017 07:31

Interesting article but will take time to undertake the larger clinical trials needed before such a pill could be prescribed.

[michaelmouse] 10/2/2017 07:20

Excellent link by judijudi on t'other thread:-



Competition from others including the above is (and will be) immense, and undoubtedly some will be far more effective.

[michaelmouse] 10/2/2017 07:13

My timeframe is somewhat longer than a few weeks elrico.

Downtrend is still in tact. Winter is coming.......40p first stop. :)

[owenmo] 09/2/2017 23:37

Guys, 5 of the latest posts have presented from a single unstable source. Can we be charitable, as I have suggested previously, and simply ignore. It may take some time for tiredness to set it to an extent that he'll give up the ghost - but surely to be seen to be ignored is sure to impact in time. Be kind guys; short shrift I say. What an agenda! Elrico conserve your energy for the good stuff you serve up.

[elrico] 09/2/2017 19:56

You must be worried, working nights now. What prompted that I wonder!
By the way...some of the the Chinese frauds pay a handsome divi.
Your TA is just as good as your accounting skills. Last time you stated "winter's coming 40p next stop." 26% gain thereafter. Please repeat :-)

Don't worry about my CHL "binary bet" I stand to lose c£1900 if it goes belly up. Modesty prevents me stating what I made out of two frauds you lost money on. Needless to say, they were both well north of £1900.

Been in OPTI since 15p, but you know this right!

[michaelmouse] 09/2/2017 19:50

Actually talking of charts, Churchill Mining is the perfect example of why most traders lose money. The chart was in a perfect up trend since April 2016 and no doubt traders followed the momentum. Suddenly they wake up and Oops!!! Wipeout.

In the long run fundamentals win every time.

[michaelmouse] 09/2/2017 19:41

Downtrend perfectly intact on the Opti chart I notice.

[michaelmouse] 09/2/2017 19:32

Yes it's a great blog isn't it Elric. Perhaps better posted on the Trakm8 board though? Haven't heard from you for a while, I thought you might have disappeared down a mine shaft. Oops. Delicate subject eh?

How's your investment in Churchill Mining going? Is it fraud, I genuinely don't know? It's looking like a total wipe-out for you isn't it? What do you think?

Perhaps you'll make some money back here?

At least you and judijudi can console each other over a glass of Go-Figure perhaps? I'd add a wee dram of whiskey.

By the way Trakm8 is profitable , cash generative and pays a dividend and has a market cap around £35m whereas Opti is loss making, burning cash, can't pay dividends but has a market cap. nearly twice that of Trakm8. I'd have a think about that one if I were you Einstein.

Who gave you the Churchill tip Elric? Anyone we know? Fraud busters perchance? ;)

[incanus] 09/2/2017 19:27

No i am not luke. I guess i asked the wrong person for advice looking at post 888.

[belgrano2] 09/2/2017 19:13

Look on the bright side, we certainly dont want to upset a big brother partner on almost day 1. They want to "coin the market" with this new discovery. Even a small share of the rewards will be huge.
I dont want the price to just shoot up and watch the traders take advantage, better the slow rise and giving opportunity for further top ups on the dips.

[elrico] 09/2/2017 19:09

OK, I'm bored, so here goes. Ready Michaelmouse, sitting comfortably! First a little plug for your wonderful blog that offers very little substance.

Monday, 28 November 2016
Trakm8 interims
Trakm8 released their interims this morning and the share price has currently taken a 30% hit. I'm not sure what investors were expecting, (THEY WERE EXPECTING THE COMPANY TO TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT ORDERS - ELRIC EDIT) but in my view, it's the usual wild over-reaction by myopic investors looking for short term gains. Trakm8 has a fantastic opportunity to exploit in the telematics industry, and has clearly gone for that opportunity in a big way with a very large spend on engineering capacity, alongside sales and marketing resource. We'll be able to judge in the medium to long term. In the short term, although revenues continue to grow, (REALLY - WHAT ABOUT CASH FLOW, OPERATING PROFIT AND NET NEBT BALLOONING - ELRIC EDIT)profitability will suffer a little. I'm happy with that. As I said in a recent blog :- (HOW LONG HAS TRAKM8 BEEN GOING? THIS SHOULD BE A MATURE BUSINESS NOW - ELRIC EDIT).

hxxp://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/still-on-trak-week-on-monday.html

"My view is that with a long term view, the company is hugely undervalued. I'm not particularly bothered whether or not they hit expectations this year, as long as they keep growing that order book."

I'm not going to do a forensic analysis of the results:-



but as usual you should DYOR.


For me, the clear risk going forward is can they turn the increased engineering, sales and marketing spend into the proportionate eventual increases in revenues and profitability, and will their expansion into China and the US bear fruit?

However, in my previous blog I wrote this:-

"With a medium/long view on Trakm8, I'm looking for £10-£20. (WOW NO RAMP INTENDED FOLKS - ELRIC EDIT)In the short term, at the current lowly valuation, they are possibly vulnerable to a bid at around £5. " (MINE IS NEARER 60P - WHY THE 4X PREMIUM ARE YOU MAD?)

Personally, I think they'd have been remiss not to go for the opportunity in the telematics arena with their market leading solutions, and I see no reason to change the targets stated above, as things stand at the moment.

I am in the advantageous position in that I bought my holding in Trakm8 when the share price was in the teens, and I accept that some investors may have bought recently and are sitting on paper losses. (EVER HEARD OF A STOP LOSS!! ELRIC EDIT)


END...well not quite, some other nonsense about what if's and why for's.

What Michalemouse failed to mention to his huge audience and what really matters, was what is behind the fall from grace of 385p to 107p? And what was Michaelmouses price target? Oh wow!!

Allow me to explain;

TRAKM8 stated in september that its order book had increased by 37% on the same period from last year. Sound good, right! Erh...no, it is cooking and michalemouse missed it.

What was glaring obvious even for me, a non trained accountant and was bloody shyt at mathes as school;

Operating profit was down 72%
Operating cash flow down 90%
and net debt has ballooned to £4.4 m, double the previous year.
And the best bit for me...TRAKM8 was expected full year operating profits to match last year’s, when it made £3.9m....wait for it....try £600k that is a whopping £3.3m miss!!

I previously told michalemouse the company was attempting to grow by buying competitors because it had ran out of steam, thus could not be called a growth company by the true sense of the meaning.

Michaelmouse is keen to cook up all manner of accounting smoke and mirrors when it comes to OPTI, yet he failed to use the same accounting skills (chuckle) when running the rule over his precious TRAKM8.

Add to the two previously mentioned frauds he also ploughed his money into, I ask you, can we really take this blaggard seriously!!

[michaelmouse] 09/2/2017 16:35

Just out of interest, when I read the main thread, most of the shareholders appear to be overweight and/or have high blood pressure or high cholesterol.

Just a thought but if Opti did eventually come good would any of you still be alive to spend your ill gotten gains? ;)

P.S. Out of interest I tried a Go-Figure shake. If it helps anybody, I didn't like the taste so I added a soup starter, steak and chips for main, a crème Brulee dessert and washed it down with a pint of Boddingtons. I think the shake must have worked because I went for at least two hours without feeling hungry again. In fact for supper I just had a shake and a cheese and pickle sandwich. Oh and a packet of crisps, and then some pork scratchings.......... Didn't have to get up in the night once for a midnight feast. Marvellous those shakes.

Actually that last paragraph isn't entirely true. It was two packets of crisps ;)

[michaelmouse] 09/2/2017 16:17

riskybusiness1 - "maybe the mouse on the other thread will live to regret putting more time and effort in to writing rubbish than doing proper research."

If you think I write rubbish then that's your prerogative.

We clearly beg to differ. I have no issue with the company and indeed wish them well in their endeavours.

However, the company is already valued in the multi-millions and has recorded at the half-year just £88,000 in revenues. Despite your so-called research the fact remains that the business model is not yet proven and meaningful revenues and profits are a considerable way off.

Therein lies the considerable risk at the current valuation. There is no room for error and no margin of safety.

If I'm wrong then I can live with that. IMV the risk/reward is massively skewed towards risk rather than reward.

There are always plenty of opportunities out there with better odds imo.

[nicktopten] 09/2/2017 16:05

Well, haven't had to take advantage of the Go Figure range as not overweight, but I do have raised cholesterol and high blood pressure..... so as soon as I can get my hands on a pack of this stuff the better!!
I would enjoy better health, less likely to have heart attack, and therefore live longer so as to enjoy the huge future dividends Im sure owning many thousands of Opti shares will produce!! Win , Win.! ( is that train of thought realistic? Hope so)

[someuwin] 09/2/2017 15:53

Good post risky.

[riskybusiness1] 09/2/2017 15:41

This is only one product in one platform. Interesting the presentation mentions that the next group to study will be the higher cholesterol group which had a 26% reduction. Replicate this with 100+ people and this product will be big whoever the partner. The latter part of the presentation showed the 3x extra increase in the cholesterol reduction when the lpgos from the optibiotic platform was added to the probiotic. Shows the value overlap between the platforms very clearly. Clear example of how opti can use this tech to improve probiotics health benefits - dsm £10bn+ mkt cap worlds biggest ingredient supplier using AND PAYING FOR (six figure sum) the privilege to use Optis tech to enhance their products whilst opti retains a future 7-15% license revenue and royalties. How many other companies with established sales will want to enhance their products in an market transitioning from general well bring to a focus on specific health benefits. Chr hannsens purchasing of Valios single strain for £60m shows the market leaders moving in for proven specific health benefits. This accumulation of data by opti is the start of such process. What happens if these next generation Synbiotics are used in clinicals within a high cholesterol test group (The probiotic alone showed a 26% reduction in this group). Taking in to account the lpgos has a 3x increase in the probiotics ability to reduce cholesterol..... maybe the mouse on the other thread will live to regret putting more time and effort in to writing rubbish than doing proper research.Time will tell.