Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[lodger] 09/1/2019 20:15

I seem to remember SOH saying a couple of years ago that he thought the share price should be around £1.80, that might be where a £200m value could be confused with.

[toyin] 09/1/2019 20:11

“Firstly let me say that i’m not bashing Opti”

When someone opens with a line like that, I guarantee they mean the complete opposite.

[riskybusiness1] 09/1/2019 20:00

Marc we've already been told revenue for H2 so if it's something your not expecting then fools on you really. Zeon is a massive announcement setting up the supply chain to head up and finalise agreements with TATA that have taken over two years. Gives you an idea on how long corporates take. £200m by 2018 is nonsense you've imagined. SOH has mentioned each division could be worth upwards of £200m on their own separately but definitely not given a timeline. BE on a month to month was achieved by YE18 as stated. Morrison's & boots etc are good for volumes but not great margins not sure why people view these as the big deals when Opti have to front cash to stock the stores. I find it incredible that people write stuff like that when Opti have signed off over 30 deals globally within 18months of going commercial including a US biopharmaceutical deal. Any reasonable person would surely see that as immense progress. Please point me to any other company with similar commercial traction.

[colinzeal] 09/1/2019 19:31

Take your points - we're all waiting for the big news to land - you just have to be patient and trust in your research and convictions. The team are delivering across all products and geographies at the moment and all these "smaller" deals will all be helping...if you're bored, fed-up, or simply don't believe that they can deliver then sell some, or all of your shares. Easy. By all accounts, I think the two deals this week are a real statement of intent so early on in the year and cover huge, global, markets. We should be congratulating them on getting these over the line instead of moaning about "Boots" or "Morrisons" after every single announcement.

[primal123] 09/1/2019 18:59

I think you are mistaken with TW with P&G, it was him who said this. SOH has delivered everything he said he would, can you show me where he said by 2018 we would be a 200m company? I haven't seen this before, he said in the future but no date on it. I think you have to be realistic when dealing with big corporates, little bits can hold things up! Keep the faith, he will deliver! Also 100bn turnover company is paying Opti 6 figures!

[riskybusiness1] 09/1/2019 18:54

DSM paid Opti fo the research using reverse enzyme technology to enhance the effects of the worlds most valuable probiotic LGG. Opti own all the IP so they're going to want it at some point either buy it outright or licence it. If not companies like Chr Hannssen will be interested which would be a huge embarrassment for DSM if it's commercialised without them seeing as they paid for it. The bigger partners take ages hence TATA deal only just coming through. To be honest the prebiotic side of the business is so advanced it's probably even slightly too far ahead of the curve just yet. The technology will be invaluable to the pharmaceutical companies in improving the efficacy of thereapeutics. As of yet the space is very early, the majority of products are still going through clinical trials.

[slartybartfaster] 09/1/2019 18:50

DSM are working with a Chinese company.

[1marcr] 09/1/2019 18:50

Firstly let me say that i'm not bashing Opti like the resident Trolls that have nothing better to do and I've been invested in this share since early 2015 and the forums don't swing my decisions in any way to buy or sell shares but they are good to get other investors take on things. I've been reading the forums on a daily basis since I read about the tip in the mail Midas section. SOH expected the company to be a £200-250m company by 2018 and it hasn't happened yet. I fully believe in the science which is why I'm still invested and I'm fortunate enough to be able to leave my money invested long term but every day I read the forums and watch the pro active update videos waiting for the day the 'transformational news' that everyone say's is coming will arrive. But so far it hasn't. Some will say it has but most will agree that it hasn't. What happened to P&G that everyone said was happening a few years back ? What's happened with Boots, I can see that just disappearing soon, never to be mentioned again. What happened with the 'few more surprises before Christmas', the list goes on and now we're all waiting for the slimbione announcement but the fact that we're into the second week of January and nothing has materialized makes me think, is this even going to happen. We're all now waiting for a trading update but in all honesty I expect this to be sketchy at best and at worst, less revenue than we're all expecting but to be told wait until the next 6 months of trading.

[imnotlong] 09/1/2019 18:38

Tata news would be good. Whatever happened to DSM? Anything still expected with them? Been a while since the scientific announcement about their strain.

[riskybusiness1] 09/1/2019 17:41

If we have 5x6x H1 sales in H2 and rapidly building plus we still have a number of 6 figure payments from US pharma adding to 7 figures (per said we should receive these within 12 months) then profitability 2019 is all pretty much guaranteed. Add in a SBTX divi too and some big seeetbiotix deals with the heavyweight Fred then we should be well away. It's the stated expectation by SOH to be profitable this year who has delivered on previous specific statements. I still expect TATA to land soon which should take us to new highs. All in all a lot to look forward to.

[billeeedee] 09/1/2019 17:00

I don't think the stock market is for you Dazah. It is a fact of life that prices go down as well as up. Unless you are prepared to hold for the long term rewards best to sell OPTI and buy some premium bonds.

[dazah] 09/1/2019 16:49

Well given today's performance 4% down I think they should bin that planned trading update as market will see right through it and then we're at 75p all over again. Market clearly unimpressed with today's RNS I hope they can step up before brexit vote.

[m4rtinu] 09/1/2019 16:47

Risky - thanks for comment on Admin Exs. Any previous one-offs that wont reoccur will help reduce my estimate of these.

[riskybusiness1] 09/1/2019 16:40

Seems about roughly what to expect. Only thing is the admin costs shouldn't be that high. There were some substantial one off costs in 2017 related to SBTX listing. Can't remember figures but it was a few hundred k.Dazah if you can not see profit coming then it's definitely not one for you. If you could close the door on your way out that would be great

[m4rtinu] 09/1/2019 16:38

Dire. On revenue, we have been given a clear guide by SOH. Cost of Sales have been fairly steady over past 4 half year figures and are not that significant (now). It is the Admin Expenses that are considerable and hopefully I am out on the high side on these. But thanks for comment.

[dire cons] 09/1/2019 16:26

Well that's a few hours of your life you'll never get back.
Imho, there's no use in guesstimating anything at this stage unless you know what the manufacturing output and distributors throughput.

[dazah] 09/1/2019 16:23

So a huge operating loss then? No wonder the share price is down 4%. Can't see a profit.

[m4rtinu] 09/1/2019 16:10

Given that SOH has promised a trading update if full FY figures are not ready, I have had a go at estimating the top 5 lines of the income sheet for FY 18. Taking into account previous years figures for costs and the 5 to 6 x increase in revenue reported by SOH for H2 18 compared with H1 18. I have not gone any further as there have been adjustments in some accounts for SBTX.

I would welcome comments and I don't mind being told (nicely) I'm wrong. Rayrac is on filter.

I expect the formatting will be all over the place but here goes:

2018 2017 2016 2015

Rev 525k 191k 288k 28k
Cst Sls 80k 74k 38k 0k
Gr Prf 445k 117k 250k 28k
Ad Exs 2500k 2244k 1766k 1451k
Op Lss 2055k 2127k 1519k 1423k


Rev = Revenue
Cst Sls = Cost of Sales
Gr Prf = Gross profit
Ad Exs = Administrative Expenses
Op Lss = Operating Loss

Notes
1. 2018 Rev = H1 18 + H1 18 x 5.5
2. 2018 Cst Sls = H1 18 + H1 18 x (H2 17 / H1 17)
3. Line 1 - Line 2
4. 2018 Ad Exs = H1 18 + H1 18 x (H2 17 / H1 17 ) which gives 2250k rounded. But the trend in previous years suggests this is a little low so I upped it by 250k. To be honest, this could still be a bit low.
5. Line 3 - Line 4

Cheers MU

[dazah] 09/1/2019 16:03

Sorry I was on a conference call talking about stuff, couldn't eat, talk and answer questions from folk but noted next time I'm eating it quickly! Note to self.

[robo28] 09/1/2019 15:57

I can't think that iv ever in my entire life left a bowl of cereal for ten minutes??? What's wrong with you people?!!!! Ha ha

[slartybartfaster] 09/1/2019 15:25

Are you stupid. Everyone knows that is the Slimbiome. It does this when mixed with water. Hence the fuller for longer.

[onedayrodders] 09/1/2019 15:20

dazah .. what other company offers a products that doubles as a breakfast cereal AND useful for DIY decorating.

Proof again you never see the positives.

[dazah] 09/1/2019 14:13

On a different note, those muesli pots are great but I left mine unfinished for 10 minutes and that hard stuff at the bottom seems to turn the contents into a wallpaper paste goo. So you need to eat them fast and I can't understand why there is hard ingredients at the bottom which seem to be triggered after 10 minutes...

A definite opportunity to improve the mixture as the goo wasn't tasty at all.