Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[aspex] 29/1/2018 21:23

FWIW The Guardian is trying to help out

[2350220] 29/1/2018 20:56

Wow Parob, that was a complicated, but very informative article.
Thanks,
John

[bobalot] 29/1/2018 19:59

elrico 29 Jan '18 - 15:21 - 31334 of 31336 (Filtered)

MAYBE A FANTACIST ...lol

[parob] 29/1/2018 19:53

Tweeted by Per this morning:

The simple cholesterol test that says if you need statins — and why doctors in UK aren’t using it

January 26

[elrico] 29/1/2018 15:21

PGlancy - Post 31328 is NOT a prophesy of sorts, it is merely a hypothesis of what is achievable, if all goes to plan. IMHO. That said, those valuations may take longer than 2020. The comfort for me, is the numbers I use in terms of potential revenues are based on conversations with SOH, for national, multi nation and retails earnings - TIMELINE are another matter, it is NOT SOH's. The earning multiple again, not plucked out of the air by me, they are industry standards on inferior science, yet my earning multiple is half that of Probi, and it should be noted, OPTI are using the same business model as Probi. So, again, it serves to underline how conservative I am trying to be, even though the numbers look outlandish.

Sooner or later, the wider investment community will realise OPTI's potential, and as we have already witnessed, OPTI valuations got ahead of themselves. The point I'm making, when earning become clearer, say on those numbers I used to illustrate potential, there will become a point when investors realise the scope c10 commercial agreements per platform, this then feeds the imagination of the potential, so it is entirely possible OPTI market cap gets ahead of itself once again as the market looks forward with anticipation. It could get silly very easily, very quickly.

I know a number of investors I communicate with are far more bullish than I, but that is for them. I'd love to proved ultra conservative. :)

[rafboy] 29/1/2018 15:07

I hope that once we have better visibility of earnings or a major deal is announced we will start to head up towards the £1 mark. That level is the first target for me that indicates elrico’s figures could well prove correct. Anyway, I would also be quite content with that level or thereabouts by June 2020. Don’t worry we won’t hold you to it elrico, LOL.

[judijudi] 29/1/2018 14:59

A £400mill-£500mill M/Cap by June 2020 would just about be OK with me
:)
Although even that may yet prove conservative

[pglancy] 29/1/2018 14:27

Brilliant posts by risky and elrico.
Elrico, those valuation look too good to be true at over 5 times current valuation. Do you think these are doable and in the time you suggest?

[someuwin] 29/1/2018 13:48

O/T

Biome Technologies (LSE:BIOM) Nothing to do with microbiome, but everything to do with BioPlastics (red hot topic right now - "A trillion dollar opportunity!")

£6m valuation. £2.3m cash. Profitable.

[elrico] 29/1/2018 13:25

PJ - I don't want to make this about TW/SP. I'm happy to offer a counter valuation at the significant risk of stick my neck out by proposing an alternative valuation below:

GUESTIMATES - simplified
Summary of what I am "hoping" for FY2019
10x nationals @ 300kpa = £6m MIN
4X MN @ £5m pa MIN = £20m
e-commerce 10% revenues = £2.6m

10x £28.6m = £286m market cap by June 2020?

Note I'm using 10x earnings, close to LGG valuation based on 8.1x earnings, which was of course just for the IP. So, I would guess 15x earning (£429m m/c) is not unreasonable when compared to industry valuations on inferior science at 20x.

Non of the above accounts for OptiBiotic revenues. I just thought this was much further down the commercial track, perhaps 18/24 months behind SweetBiotix.


I would also add, the figures do not account for the likelihood of SlimBiome/SweetBiotix product combination, which I believe is a real possibility.


This may sound outlandish - IMHO there is even the possibility of a product containing, SlimBiome, SweetBiotix and an LP-LDL strain. What price that combo?

Of course, the usual suspects will scream ramper. However, the potential revenue numbers are not mine, only the number of agreements I "hope" to be in place and the industry standard earnings model (Probi as a prime example) which is twice my conservative 10x. I would also point out, IP across the board will have gained value as each platform is further de-risked, SweetBiotix industry value is currently £20m+ without any commercial agreement of note.

Of course all this is based on end-point commercial traction (royalties) and not just licenses and production invoices, etc.

IMHO the market is ignoring the significance of CII, Knighton/Premier foods and Galenicum, will add to the business.

[pj 1] 29/1/2018 12:54

elrico, its actually a poorly written article that can be read a number of ways.

The £3m in a minimum profit target, but it doesn't state if that is GP, net profit, pre tax or post tax

I assume it means pre tax?

[elrico] 29/1/2018 12:52

PJ - No matter how you read the HSR article, it makes no historical sense, because the 100p by Christmas was muted 2016 and repeated for 2017. On this basis, what credibility of assumed earning, PE and time-frame? One could argue 2 points; market looks c12 months ahead, IP value, which I would imagine will be significant with each passing commercial agreement.

Let's not forget you view of TW/SP ;)

[pj 1] 29/1/2018 12:45

Ive read the article again. Without rose tainted spectacles. You can def read they mean 70p ish in 2 years on a p/e x20, following their calculations

Therefore their 100p target must be in excess of that time frame. i.e. >2 years and ''calendar'' 2019

[pj 1] 29/1/2018 12:35

They had a 100p+ price target by xmas 2017, its way too optimistic based on those figures in isolation

[pj 1] 29/1/2018 12:31

I'm not sure I agree with their calculations for the near term price target.

They claim a minimum £3m profit by ''calendar'' 2019, so nearly 2 years away, and on a P/E of 20 which is achievable then = roughly 75p.

So where does the 100p+come from?
There is no way the market will price 3 years ahead imo

[elrico] 29/1/2018 12:27

Ricky - Excellent post. You don't say much on a daily basis, but when you do, I think I speak for all LTHs, we all take note and enjoy your opinion. Thank you.

One the marketing side of things - which you touched on, it is true the model is commercial partners market their own products, so there is nothing in the cost model for OPTI to contribute. Christina and Max and I think perhaps, Per, have all mentioned some form of PR/marketing push early 2018. I guess this will be for OPTI products, not commercial partners. In terms of products, OPTI have the rights to rebrand commercial partners as their own and sell via the e-commerce site, so I expect these will need some form of marketing, but again, I would expect partners to pickup here also, as it is in their commercial interest to do so.

You rightly point out revenues from existing commercial deals will take time to filter through to OPTI, because each deal has it's own timeline to market. However, it is important to distinguish royalties, which is what I think you refer to, from license payments and revenues from partners like Knighton Foods (SlimBiome -UK), CII (SlimBiome - USA), TATA - SlimBiome/LP-GOS - India/Asia), Nutrilnea (LP-LDL Europe) SACCO LP-LDL - ROW). These ingredients manufactures/supply partners are invoiced for the ingredients to end products partners (HLH, PharmaBiota, Galenicum, etc), which means, there is a license fee and ingredients supply fee; the royalties from the end products (shelf) come later, so OPTI have revenues from the existing commercial agreements.

IMHO, I still expect OPTI to have a very healthy cash at bank position, which of course puts OPTI in a very strong position. I think some of the confusion around monetization and the INCORRECT expectation of a cash call (from some circles) has possibly contributed to the share price frustration. When the wider market realises OPTI have min 2 revenue streams AHEAD of the end royalty payment, perhaps those on the sidelines will feel more comfortable and rejoin the LTH investors.

[loungeact] 29/1/2018 12:25

Thanks Colin, so essentially he's just repeating the same rubbish.

[colinzeal] 29/1/2018 12:21

It just highlights the recent RNS on Sweetbiotix and reinforces the +100p share price target when major contracts land(hopefully soon). I'm not going to copy and paste it as it's a paid-for service and whatever you think of TW he needs to feed his family. Personally, I think £5.99 a month is a bargain for the Bearcasts alone.

[loungeact] 29/1/2018 12:09

HSR have an OPTI article out - if anyone wants to share...i'd be curious to read :)

[nimrod22] 29/1/2018 10:49

In the slides its states "Smartphones take online commerce to 7 billion humans"
Are they also in contact with non humans?