Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[shrewdmole] 29/1/2018 10:19

Judi

Give over jh posted when he bought Vrs I believe.

It's your negative comments that make many here feel they have to explain where the funds have come from!!

Keep saying this but there's a bigger play afoot here nothing to do with us lot topping up.

S

[john henry] 29/1/2018 10:00

Well im the only one that knows that Scotty1 you certainly dont LOL.

In fact i sold 5% of my VRS holding, 30K Purchased 13p sold 117p to buy 60K here.

[judijudi] 29/1/2018 09:54

ODR,
I would not be surprised either. Though lets hope they/he are finished

[onedayrodders] 29/1/2018 09:54

and low and behold a 10k and 20k appears by magic

[onedayrodders] 29/1/2018 09:53

hope not but the odds are the seller will be back until the tipping point RNS arrives.

[judijudi] 29/1/2018 09:44

Lets hope the seller keeps away, he/they have been around a good while now

[zebbo] 29/1/2018 09:43

Thanks Risky great post and concur with your thoughts. Just to add that a cheeky bid could still be a catalyst to a re rate within the next 12 months

[scotty1] 29/1/2018 09:21

Nope JH what you mean is you took a 15k trade earlier ;)

[john henry] 29/1/2018 09:17

Added 15K earlier

[shrewdmole] 29/1/2018 09:07

Martin

That's the plan, they take a while so the smaller deals fund running costs until that point.

The big deals will come with industry acceptance.

S

[m4rtinu] 29/1/2018 09:05

Risky - good post. Hard as it seems, may be I should stop the daily checking of share price and BB for 6-12 months.

The main concern to me, is the speed (or lack of) that big partners will move at.

[judijudi] 29/1/2018 09:03

I think the 200k sell last week might have temporarily (hopefully permanently) cleared the decks :)

[2350220] 29/1/2018 08:59

What a fantastic and in depth post
riskybusiness. Thanks very much,
John

[shrewdmole] 29/1/2018 08:54

There's no size available at all.
Be interesting to see what the MM does who has been driving this.

[trotterstrading] 29/1/2018 08:53

Of course they are, that 200k buy took up all the loose stock

[scotty1] 29/1/2018 08:52

yep jj paying over offer so should tick up

[judijudi] 29/1/2018 08:50

Better start to the day

[trotterstrading] 29/1/2018 08:14

Quality post Risky, as always. Hopefully a few nerves soothed, and confidence restored. I really believe OPTI is a once in a lifetime opportunity. The Microbiome is going Re OPTI. Microbiome is going mainstream, it will be the biggest discovery in human health since genetics (not my words). Just this past week I've seen documentaries on Nextflix (Rotten) which called out the Microbiome as a major factor in the explosion of infant allergies, and just yesterday watched a BBC documentary with Charlotte Church about mental health, again calling out the impact of gut health as key factor! We are in at the start, like selling picks and shovels during the gold rush. Keep the faith, it WILL happen

[rafboy] 29/1/2018 07:37

Thanks Risky, much to think about in that excellent post.

[riskybusiness1] 29/1/2018 02:50

Had some time to kill on a flight so thought I'd give my thoughts over recent discussions on here. For those interested:Opti have been able to keep cash burn so low because they do not sell the products themselves. The fact is if they raised £10-£20m they could fund a marketing campaign and the products would be out there much faster though costs would be significant and risks far greater. As many will realise Opti rely on partners to sell the end product pulling in the cash through the license of its IP. It's a slow process as it involves not only discussions on deal structure and terms but actually getting these partners on track to create sell and advertise an entirely new product under their own branding and getting them to deliver within a certain timescale (though all at little to no cost to Opti when the ££ hits the bank). The model involves these partners going out and testing demand for the product, making sure stock levels will be sufficient to cope with continuous demand on launch, coming up with packaging, formulations, marketing campaigns and sometimes testing these new combinations together to see if there is any synergy between the ingredients. Obviously before all this there will be discussions from the interest leading to a contract and an RNS. It's not as quick and easy as negotiating the number of pencils your going to sell striking a deal and organising the transaction. The larger the partner and scale clearly the longer it will take to follow the process seeing as they will be making a significant investment. Galenicum for example (£100m+ revenues with double digit annual growth) they are a medium sized partner operating over multiple territories therefore a lot of planning and time will be required hence the H2 rollout. The first order will likely be significant for Opti imo due to their scale. Also take for example the recent surprise news via proactive interview of an American firm ordering LPLDL to trial before launch. This would suggest they are pretty sizeable and maybe have gone for a soft launch to test demand before putting in a larger order and signing a contract. An early order from the US whatever the case is a very very good sign.Some companies will be faster to market with Optis IP like HLH Biopharma who replaced an existing cholesterol reducing ingredient 'AB LIFE' made by AB-Biotics. AB-Biotics is an established Spanish pharmaceutical probiotic competitor that currently sells £6m+ annually of this inferior ingredient. Clearly represents what the industry thinks of the product and shows revenue potential for LPLDL.There is no revenue guidance yet because these companies have no clue how much they are going to sell before going out and actually doing it. SOH will also be trying to keep these companies within a particular timeframe from signing a contract to fully readying the product for launch, however they will not launch until they're completely ready seeing as they are taking all the risk so determine Y1 Y2 revenue accurately would be impossible. I'm glad Opti have not guessed and shows the experience and confidence of management. SOH must have investors nagging him for this daily. Getting something as important as revenue guidance wrong would be detrimental to the company going forward. Currently the share price is in limbo because of this so definitely take advantage if you have spare change. Low 60s is an absolute no brainer.Opti are changing an industry through their technology like the digital camera did to the Kodak - these pharmaceutical grade products are not available yet and won't be for maybe 4+ years as virtually all of Optis competitors have gone the costly, risky and time consuming Pharma route. Opti are years ahead of the microbiome curve due to their chosen route to market and the lower regulatory hurdles. When these Pharma groups start rolling out these products and more of these types of microbiome products become available the Optibiotic platform should become an extremely well sought after technology considering its enhancing abilities. Big pharma will be wanting their products to be as good as they possibly can be opening up an absolutely huge opportunity for Opti. LTH will hit the jackpot with this platform. Opti are becoming viewed due to their research as one of the leaders in an emerging market forecasted to be one of the fastest growth opportunities. Winning awards in yearly succession at global industry events such as Probiota tells its own story. Only an idiot would have you believe the corporates are not interested. For industry to value sweetbiotix at £20m already before having any type of commercial deal or product selling tells you a lot about the IP and the discussions that are taking place. That's almost half the current market cap and sweetbiotix though huge is still just 1 of 3 opportunities within the Optibiotic division alone.Opti will not necessarily be a guaranteed success however it's diversity in to so many major markets and the immense progress on all fronts means it's now highly likely. Opti have over £1m in cash, £95k cash burn per month, growing revenues from multiple partners and £4/5m of Skin holding which could be realised anytime after the April lock in. Very comfortable position to be in financially meaning Opti can play hardball or even walk away from the large players if any exclusivity deal does not maximise the potential value of the IP yet- the Opti bod know exactly what they're doing and the potential value of this IP if fully exploited. Skin, whilst offering a significant opportunity for Opti has mitigated any need to dilute via placement. SOH does not seem to be the kind of chap to lie to the market or lose track on the financials considering how tightly the ship has been run to date. Quite honestly I've never come across a company with such a strict control over finances.Even though they do not excite the market I can not stress how important these deals with HLH, Galenicum, Pharmabiota etc are to Opti as it will lead Opti to gain a far better exclusivity deal from a corporate then if it had no other revenues and relied heavily on a deal from a corporate. Corporate will want some type of exclusivity usually over a territory so clearly the amount needs to be significant to Opti. Likely this is where the waiting for the 'right deal' quote from SOH takes its meaning. By proving commercial viability through other outlets it presents little risk to the corporates hence increasing Optis stance in negotiations. The bigger the risk for them clearly the less they will offer Opti to take it on. Let's not forget they are making a huge commitment to rollout Optis IP. Opti just sits back and waits for the money from the license. It's as profitable a model you will come across but takes time to build. These smaller early deals will ultimately allow Opti to demand a larger MOQ or a Royalty payment for exclusivity over a particular territory/continent than if it was going solely for a deal with the corporates from the start. It's how to quickly increase the value of the IP within the industry very early on.On balance there is only one thing that concerns me about Opti at the moment and that is the time it takes to start building the revenues following signing these deals before the cash gets low and the market starts to get nervous. Though as discussed Skinbio shares of £5m mitigates this risk and Optis main outgoings are R&D based therefore they can cut these down if absolute necessary. Revenues should be building with the boss forecasting profit by YE 2018 so clearly revenues are on their way in size from somewhere. Of course I would like more deals to be signed but with such an unusual low cost model it's not surprising the time it takes even though the technology is brilliant. Holding out for the right deal will ultimately create a solid sustainable business for LTH.I've increased my holding by 10% the past month. The model is what is causing the slow appearance of commercialisation though anyone paying attention will realise IP is the most valuable thing Opti have and is what the business is built upon. Selling it cheaply early on would be the most stupid thing they could do. Therefore holding out building the smaller deals first is actually how you maximise and 'wait for the right deal'. When these exclusivity deals come through they'll be higher due to the methods used to get that better deal. When all this good news comes together in terms of potential ££ the market will be scrambling for the stock I have no doubt that will happen hence why I'm still here following my most successful investment decision to date. Unless you need to sell you should be rubbing your hands at these prices. Once all the deals really start flowing and the money is shown revenues should grow in excess of 100% per year, more when these exclusivity deals get signed off. Risky - from sunny Australia

[aspex] 28/1/2018 23:25

Like ZEBBO I have running loss on my 200k shares. It does help considerably to have been through a previous experience with Paysafe which finally got taken out.There is one connection. I would not now have anywhere as many OPTI had it not been for the cash out of PAYS.'Nuff said.

[parob] 28/1/2018 20:39

Hopefully the trend will change now that 200K trade is out of the way.

[elrico] 28/1/2018 20:02

Zebbo - if BOD gave revenue guidance from existing product productions (not to be confused with announced commercial JV) it would significantly weaken BODs future negotiating hand There are a mix of national and MN type deals at the moment, but not all have gone into production as yet. Giving revenue guidance when there is no historical data wouldn't be credible, thus pointless at this stage.

[zebbo] 28/1/2018 19:44

I fully get the NDA position, but some ££ guidance should be given based on deals thus far and possible outlook. I am a realist and understand how difficult this may be, primarily for 2 reasons.
1. We have just moved to commercialisation.
2. Sales are all looking in the rearview mirror, so a lagging indicator.

[parob] 28/1/2018 19:06

It's ultimately about revenue and that will come, but the last two "world first" RNSs have added significant value to the business and the share price hasn't responded accordingly. I would imagine there are quite a few sat on the sidelines waiting for the trend to change before buying in.