Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[goblin99] 22/10/2018 12:01

Fear not for the ships on the voyage and food is plentiful. Goats and chickens are aboard and the sun will remain above the horizon no more. Fear not for that is a good sign as the clear night sky provides a path to the stars for the eye to behold, and soon, all will be before us. The depths of despair will be no more and the voyage will be more joyous when allegiance comes to the forefront, in the form of a ship in the distance. Together, as they seek new pastures, the mist will arise and the thoughts of a thousand minds will be just one. It is then that the answer will present itself.

[arteespresso] 22/10/2018 11:54

Thanks for the link. May be the upgrade, however volume is double what it has been for the last week or so. As you said, could just be broker info, although my feeling is it may be something else.

[wbodger] 22/10/2018 10:43

Jeffries upgrade to Buy might have helped.

"...the investment case in our view is finally one of 'realistic expectations' clearly outlined by interim CEO Alan Booth whose track record of organic value crystallisation (EnCore Oil) is one we are prepared to back"

Someone else may have a better link than this ...

[arteespresso] 22/10/2018 10:13

Interesting volume and price action to the start of the day! Perhaps the seller has finally finished!

[wbodger] 18/10/2018 12:32

No, I get that, but you have to be a strong man there (without going to the Saudi extreme). One day an African nation may have a leader without a Swiss Bank account, but not anytime soon. Magafuli just has to be someone to do business with - ie will he (can he) keep his commitments.

I see it from Wentworth perspective, where they have managed to get paid for gas. That gas is used for electricity, it seems a better use for the country than getting foreign exchange for shipping it off to China. The compromise is usually a bit of each, which is what Shell might work towards.

[wbodger] 18/10/2018 09:57

Doesn't that just say Tanz are run by a nationalist, Moz by ... well, by who? It just looks more risky in Moz, and Tanz could be a good place to do business within nationalist parameters. The right deal by Shell could still see them exporting LNG.

[ohisay] 18/10/2018 09:34

Oil Price is the driver Never made sense below 60 bucks.

You are missing the point Nigel - they've been talking for two years and made no progress (see the Shell link)- compare that to the enormous LNG progress thats been made in Mozambique whose gas was discovered at the same time.

[wbodger] 18/10/2018 09:29

Can you leave it to appropriate places please.

[fangorn2] 17/10/2018 19:00

I suspect it's going to be one of those "unknown unknowns" that is going to be a real driver soon(It will seriously impact POO)

Who saw the Khashoggi affair...apparently he was carved up with a saw(whilst alive,but unconscious!) Where they preparing to eat him as well??

[nigelpm] 17/10/2018 17:20

Oil Price is the driver. Never made sense below 60 bucks.

[ohisay] 17/10/2018 15:30

They've never gone away have they - its the Government that has.

[nigelpm] 17/10/2018 09:07

Yup, nothing earth shattering in it - but it is interesting that (presumably with the higher oil price) Shell are getting involved again.

[arteespresso] 17/10/2018 08:34

Nige's article is more up to date, whereas the link you've provided is from June

[nigelpm] 16/10/2018 18:14

Interesting - Tanzania had gone completely out of the picture :

[jotoha2] 16/10/2018 15:46

Looks like some talks are starting at last in Tanzania , roll on baby.

[thedudie] 15/10/2018 20:10

They are more optimistic than me … I have assumed fortuna worthless.
I think there is value here
td

[ohisay] 15/10/2018 18:04

Its still 80p - they still have some risked value for fortuna.

[thedudie] 15/10/2018 14:46

UBS re-iterated buy today apparently.
Not sure what target they have now - was 80p a while back ?
td

[ohisay] 15/10/2018 12:24

Nice here innit..

[arteespresso] 12/10/2018 20:40

The Kosmos farm in - EGhttps://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ophir-farms-equatorial-guinea-exploration-licence-kosmos/

[arteespresso] 12/10/2018 20:37

The 40p has been holding well, especially this week. Volumes still high, and by my estimation if Capital are still selling st the same rate, by end of next week I feel they'll have disposed of nearly all of their holding. Regarding Fortuna, my views are on the basis of whether both parties feel this is the right fit (Ophir/Golar and EG gov). If they do, and the latter believe with the new management Ophir have the ability to drive this project through, then EG may be amenable to another extension. If not, then stripping Ophir at year end will be on the basis that they readily have a major with the funding to proceed. That is a big IF in my view, and one has to look at the other majors in bidding for blocks in the last round, for example Exxon are one option. However, Ophir are also involved with Kosmos in EG, and the question would be, should the EQ gov strip them of the licence, I do not think they will have any incentive to stay.

[wbodger] 12/10/2018 18:41

To my untutored eye it looks as if there is a platform built around 40p for most of this week, and the share price resisted the midweek panic which affected everyone else. (Unlike most of my investments.) Oil ended around $80 which looks neutral (-ish).

Listening in to arteespresso #4957 above (" ... should something get sorted out with Fortuna, then this has the potential to increase in value significantly with a prompt re-rate"), I share that view. Until there is certainty one way or the other on Fortuna any shorters would be taking a big risk.

I'm curious that ohisay's rumour has Ophir bigwigs in Frankfurt and not EG last week. That would suggest the race is to get the outline of a deal in the nearly three months before the licence lapses, and thus make it hard for EG to take it away.

Summarizing recent holdings RNSs
- August 16, Sailing Stone declared themselves below 3% reporting threshold
- Same day, L&G made initial declaration of 5.15% - presumably adding SS's sales to an existing position
- September 14 Capital Group declared down from 10.35% to 9.86%
- October 01 Capital Group declared down to 4.7% (5.16% below 14/9)

L&G has not declared an increase, no-one has. That's odd. What happened to CG's shares?