Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 22/11/2022 07:09

Well I expect an update on that too Any reason why it would not be ?

[jailbird] 22/11/2022 07:07

I like to know when or how close the sale of the solar asset is.Once that has gone what will their strategy be .We know coal to power electricity is here to stay for a long period in India With demand increasing .I expect coal prices will come down next year as more supply comes online

[divmad] 22/11/2022 07:04

But what happens after December 2022?

[jailbird] 22/11/2022 07:03

Isn't it all clear here Current developments and highlights-- Plant Load Factor ("PLF") including 'deemed' for the five-month period to 31 August 2022 was low at 28.6 per cent as OPG continues to focus on profitability and an optimising Plant Load Factor (PLF) with a mix of long term and short term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) with the State Utility, supply to captive shareholders and supply through Exchange and coal sales.-- Due to prevalent high coal prices, State Utility has approved the pass through of the fuel prices until December 2022, under long term PPA.-- Average tariff for the five months period to 31 August 2022 was Rs. 9.15, up 69 per cent (FY21: Rs. 5.42) due to pass through of high coal prices by the State Utility and short-term supply contract awarded by State Utility.

[tim000] 22/11/2022 06:11

Bubba, you state on LSE that PLF was under 30% in the three months to September. Can you elaborate? If that’s so, it’s not a surprise since PLF was 28.6% up to August.

[tim000] 22/11/2022 06:00

Surely the solar assets are definitely being sold? They’re treated as discontinued assets in the accounts. The rationale for their sale is surely to ensure the company can repay all its debt on time without recourse to external finance.

[tim000] 22/11/2022 05:39

I think I knew all that, bubba. I’ve modeled cash flow based on a PLF of 28.6% and average prices of R9.15 per kWh, and the company generates profits, as the Outlook statement in the AR indicates. From memory, Tangedco contracts to buy PLF of about 18% from OPG. Price increases of ca 70% aren’t feasible if 100% of all non Tangedco customers have locked in prices. And the Outlook statement doesn’t imply OPG has zero pricing discretion. Ultimately, industrial customers need power and they won’t get it if generators can’t make money. Existing contracts then become irrelevant imho. They get renegotiated. Anyway, all will be revealed soon. As I say, there are no indications of financial distress in the Outlook section of the AR.

[bubbabubbabubba] 22/11/2022 02:27

Plus Tim outside of tangedco they have tarrifs locked in place you will see this if you dig deeper into the prospectus for the NCDs where bullet payment is due in June 2023I just hope we have enough cash in the coffers to repay the debt or we will have to refinance or tap the equity market or sell the solar assets

[bubbabubbabubba] 22/11/2022 02:23

I disagree tim the plant load factor will be too low to be profitable we will see that in the interim coal has been to high as you saw with annual they didn't produce any electricity when prices got to highThe move to green hydrogen will be swift when debt is paid off

[tim000] 21/11/2022 20:27

Yes, price increases are somehow tied to coal prices, though I haven’t found out how exactly. The company has said the current arrangements last until the end of December, though I imagine they’ll be extended. Tamil Nadu suffered power outages earlier in the year because unit prices weren’t sufficient for the generators to make profits. With the Indian economy growing strongly, power demand will only increase. That requires increased capacity which in turn requires a profitable industry to invest in new plant. High coal prices have to be reflected in higher power charges. And with modern plant, low debt and efficient coal procurement, OPG will always be very profitable.

[dave4545] 21/11/2022 20:02

But they are now allowed to pass on price increases ?

[tim000] 21/11/2022 17:14

hxxps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/coal-india-aims-at-50-mt-sales-via-e-auction-in-2nd-half-of-fy23/articleshow/95558727.cms

OPG is trying to source more coal from India at cheaper prices than from Indonesia, which has become expensive recently (historically, OPG has sourced over 90% of its coal from Indonesia). Coal India, the dominant supplier, supplies most of its coal domestically at very cheap fixed prices on long-term agreements, but of course there is excess demand and I don't think OPG has many supplies on this basis. But Coal India is allowed to market some of its coal via e auctions, which OPG could participate in. The Q3 2022 e auctions sold 10.36 mn tonnes @ R6061/t (which compares I believe with existing long-term contracts @ ca R1500-2000/t). I have pencilled in OPG paying R8800/t on average in H1 FY2023.

[dave4545] 21/11/2022 15:22

So which person day traded this again and sold via 4 lots to disguise their sales.

I know somebody on twitter/lse that does this.

Does not matter what the story they cannot hold past one day assuming it was them.

So we are clearing 500k blocks a day now, it's getting close...should be a really nice spike when this clears and it should push on if the numbers in the interims are sustained from previous ones. Cannot make £10-15 mil profits and be stuck at sub £30 mil especially when net debt is clearing and buybacks to commence

[jailbird] 21/11/2022 15:13

Actually pension fund is about 13m shares in total , would that be right ?Anyone's guess what maybe left

[jailbird] 21/11/2022 15:04

Another 500k clearedWell just PIs buying will not to clear this...the buybacks by CO will clear the overhang eventually

[dave4545] 21/11/2022 14:19

Pension fund tim.

Got to be them.

We should see another decent block cleared today perhaps 750-1 mil at 7p show later

[jailbird] 21/11/2022 13:52

Just seen first buy at 7.35p in AQSEhttps://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&symbol=AQSE%3AOPG.GB

[tim000] 21/11/2022 13:46

Doh! The Interim Report for the PMGR fund, June 2022 stated that their OPG holding had been completely sold, so it’s not them.

[tim000] 21/11/2022 13:36

Just maybe an out of hours sale will see Premier out completely. Looking for an odd number rather than a round 500k etc.

[jailbird] 21/11/2022 13:33

Me too added

[basem1] 21/11/2022 12:28

I had a cheeky 50k top up

[dave4545] 21/11/2022 12:25

Just ticked up to 7.35p offer will anybody pay that ??

[basem1] 21/11/2022 12:14

You would wonder why they do that Surely if it was 7 to 7.1 they would attract more buyers rather than any lurkers thinking the 7.1 are sells

[dave4545] 21/11/2022 12:09

Still offering sub 7.1p despite the switch to 7-7.5p on the screen