Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 09/1/2018 19:28

AndyBill, as a 'newbie' there's a lot to learn and you WILL make mistakes to start with (we all did!), so I'd suggest running some 'dummy' portfolios to start off and see how it goes before committing your life savings. As you refer to 'fundamentals' (and that's at the root of my investing style as well) I would give you 3 tips -
1) Always go to the company's published accounts (available via RNS or the company's own website) for the source of your information and never rely on stats published in financial websites or newspapers.
2) Learn to read a P&L account and Balance Sheet and
3) whatever else you do or don't do, look at the Cashflow Statement in the periodic published accounts. Accounts are presented in all sorts of ways to make them look good - EBIT, EBITDA, "adjusted", "excluding exceptionals" - but you can't disguise cash. It's either there or it's not. If the cash at the end of the period is less than the cash at the beginning, go back and look where it went. It may have gone on an acceptable use like bona fide investment or repaying debt, but on many occasions companies which claim to be 'profitable' are only so because they are hiding expenditure by capitalising it or calling it "exceptional".

Good luck!

[timbob2000] 09/1/2018 19:22

Andycapp, isn't debt now £269m?

[andybill66] 09/1/2018 18:08

Hi Andy. Thanks for that insight. I am a newbie to this and looking to learn from the knowledge and experience of others on the forums.

[turbocharge] 09/1/2018 11:49

If it's any comfort, the coal price cannot keep rising forever, there will be a time when it will start falling!

[andycapp1] 09/1/2018 09:30

Andy not sure what great fundamentals means? It is a hugely highly leveraged equity with relatively poor execution so far. Ignoring captive plant status it really doesn't generate any earnings at current coal prices. So you have to have faith that: captive plant status for Gururat will be maintained, that coal will fall and that tariffs will be increased. If one or more of these happens then the gearing impact on equity returns is profound. But if things don't improve the equity is really not worth very much and indeed with £300m of debt things could get a lot worse. On balance it is probably cheap but high risk. Its certainly a million miles from a no brainer!

[andybill66] 08/1/2018 17:08

Great fundamentals for a small SP

[azalea] 03/1/2018 14:04

Profit taking before the next step up.

[andycapp1] 03/1/2018 12:15

Tell me Azalea, every time OPG goes up does it trigger a sort of warm moist feeling which precipitates your inanities? It really is utterly perplexing. I looked back on your hopeless witterings on OPG, which go back years, and every time it rises you reappear spouting tosh. Why don't you actually try and post something remotely interesting or relevant or do you simply punt aimlessly around in shares (presumably in tiny amounts of £) so that when they go up it provides you with an excuse to post your inane drivel? Please spare us!

[azalea] 03/1/2018 10:34

All aboard !!!

[andycapp1] 02/1/2018 18:49

Goldy, agree and the captive plant status for Gujarat means EBITDA should be materially higher than at least one analyst is forecasting. I think, assuming current coal, “EBITDA” is actually around £70m although I think they actually account for this as a receivable so won’t actually be in EBITDA but obviously is ultimately cash and so equity value. If so this gives them decent headroom now and if coal falls then that generates a lot of value on top. So very cheap!!

[the original goldbug] 02/1/2018 17:47

Not above the realm of possibility...

[the original goldbug] 02/1/2018 15:24

OPG is priced such that it is almost a free put option on coal price falling over the next 10 years.

As it is an ‘illiquid option’, there is no short term correlation with other coal related assets.

[cyfran101] 02/1/2018 14:12

Odd that APF and OPG are rising together. Would have thought one would rise and the other fall regarding coal prices.

[marvelman] 02/1/2018 13:22

She walked into that one Andy and no answer to your actual point. I do enjoy popping in here to read your posts which are well informed with an amusing twist. I really don't know why Azalea feels the need to be constantly hit over the head by your put downs to her wittering contributions.

[azalea] 02/1/2018 12:40

Div in the account and a nice tick up from its low @ 16.5p offer. A combination of lower Chinese imports of steam coal as more nuclear plants come on line and the mammoth coal mine coming on line in N.E. Oz. should eventually see prices weaken.

[andycapp1] 02/1/2018 12:02

So why spend all that money on coal ships if they will use indigenous coal?

[jozo] 02/1/2018 10:16

ggbarabajagal,

Lol - what have you been drinking over the festive season!

[ggbarabajagal] 02/1/2018 09:55

bowl to 90p

[azalea] 30/12/2017 10:33

India is hugely dependent on coal for generating its seemingly unending demand for electricity. If India, with the third largest coal reserves in the world, cannot meet the government's production target of 1Bn tons in 2019 and produce it at a cost its private and public electricity generating companies can pay and make a profit, then its almost inevitable that electricity prices will have to rise accordingly. Its the age old case of supply and demand.

[source] 30/12/2017 08:49

Wow coal price has all but doubled in December! What portion of their purchases are hedged & at what price. (Believe they messed up badly on their purchasing strategy earlier this year?)Regards,Source.

[azalea] 29/12/2017 12:39

Volume over 1m today. Cannot buy even 2k on line.

1236pm.
BSESN rises through the 34000 level, up 0.62%, biggest riser this morning on world markets.

[azalea] 27/12/2017 14:42

Interesting volume today.

[ballychan] 20/12/2017 13:35

Div is being paid on 22nd dec