Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[turbocharge] 30/10/2017 13:41

Inside Bar Bullish Short-Term Bullish Signal generated on 25 Oct 2017

Volume 249,196
Close Price 27.88
Pattern Duration 2 days
Inbound Trend Duration 5 days

[turbocharge] 30/10/2017 13:38

Interesting day today, Almost all buys so far...

[andycapp1] 27/10/2017 09:33

Hey Walbrick, that's a weight off!! It has been analysed to death!! It won't pay off its debts at £30-40m per annum. The project financings will have a set repayment schedule and if they can they will stick to that. The EV won't of course stay the same!! As debt is repaid the EV shrinks therefore, all other things, the equity returns should improve....we hope!!

[turbocharge] 26/10/2017 22:30

25 Oct 2015
Inside Bar Short-Term Bullish signal generated

Volume 249,196
Close Price 27.88
Pattern Duration 2 days
Inbound Trend Duration 5 days

The balance between buyers and sellers, recently dominated by the bears, is evening out, with the possibility of higher prices ahead

[walbrock82] 26/10/2017 19:32

The share price is low because of their high debts along with debtors and creditors mismatch. I view this share speculatively, but uniquely. What I mean is if OPG Power Venture manage to reduce debt by £30m to £40m each year. Then I can see the share price appreciate by 20% each year. The enterprise value remains the same for each year.

The above case scenario is if OPG maintains their business size for three to four years.

This would be a good recovery play, however, given the pessimistic view on Asian companies, I feel the bad rep. outweighs any opportunity.

Therefore, I won’t be recommending this share a buy, until some in-depth research is done on the company.
For full analysis of OPG Power Venture and other companies’ result analysis, click

[andycapp1] 20/10/2017 12:32

Sadly I can't. I get sent them but there's no link. Main points are well known. Higher coal price, no earnings but huge leverage if coal falls. So he is leaving himself big wiggle room to upgrade from trashed price target. So unhelpful but no real new angles.

[turbocharge] 20/10/2017 11:00

Would be good if you can give us a link to the note andy

[jeffian] 20/10/2017 10:43

I think that pretty well illustrates the value of brokers' notes!

[andycapp1] 20/10/2017 10:40

No there is a new note today reducing target to 30p.

OPG Power Ventures (HOLD from BUY) – A year of realignment
OPG LN (29.5p, TP 30p from 101p), Market Cap: £103.7m

[turbocharge] 20/10/2017 09:58

30th August 2017, 11:50
Broker Forecast
Cantor Fitzgerald issues a broker note on OPG Power Ventures PLC


Cantor Fitzgerald today reaffirms its buy investment rating on OPG Power Ventures PLC [LON:OPG] and cut its price target to 101p (from 124p)

hxxps://www.brokerforecasts.com/news/article/articleId/5645155

[azalea] 20/10/2017 09:29

The individual who holds the title of Questor, changes from time to time, and as it would seem on this occasion, so does the accuracy of analysis.

[andycapp1] 20/10/2017 09:14

Reduction in price target by cantors from 110p to 30p!!

[andycapp1] 18/10/2017 12:11

Actually utterly misleading and as Jozo said might cause long suffering shareholders to see at completely the wrong time. V poor.

[lizardman_] 18/10/2017 11:24

Thanks Boffy, just had a look- it's definitely 200k. To think that a £200m liability would be hidden in the notes is pretty funny though.

[andycapp1] 17/10/2017 23:03

Don't think leases are significant? If Questor said £200m that cannot be right. They never entered my thinking!

[oldboffy1] 17/10/2017 22:16

See note 27 in the Accounts

[oldboffy1] 17/10/2017 22:08

Questor has been sloppy with the analysis. The lease figure should read £200k not £200m!!

[lizardman_] 17/10/2017 21:49

Question - What's the deal with the leases, then? I seem to have missed that during my research, is anyone able to shed a bit more light- presumably they lease the land the plants are on?

[onjohn] 17/10/2017 20:54

Mountain of debt and often misses forecasts

[andycapp1] 17/10/2017 20:51

Jozo, think that's about right. But they do need coal to fall/tarrifs to increase as that debt pile is a bit huuuuge!

[jozo] 17/10/2017 16:25

Thanks Jeffian,Exactly what a few on this bb have been saying for some time re debt.However with coal prices expected to fall and potential tariff increases in the market has slightly steered away form doomsday scenario - however this could change very quickly if coal prices don't fall and opg continue to receive ever decreasing tariff take offs.A bit ironic really for questor - those poor investors that have invested based on their previous recs have lost a shed load - and now that a bottom has potentially been reached they tell everyone to jump ship!!!Jozo

[turbocharge] 17/10/2017 15:41

If you're looking for short term gains, then maybe pull the plug. But for medium term holder (of which I am one), I think the IC has got it right. The downside risk is much less than it was 3 months ago, and 40p may be achievable, even on a sort medium term...

[jeffian] 17/10/2017 14:58

Update: OPG Power Ventures

OPG has done everything that we had hoped over the past three years. The Indian electricity generator has increased coal-fired capacity, broadened its portfolio of long-term supply contracts, begun to add solar capability, consistently increased sales and paid a maiden dividend.

The shares have plunged nevertheless, amid suggestions that India could marginalise coal to the benefit of solar and, more immediately, a spike in coal prices that will take a heavy toll on profits in the year to March 2018.

Futures markets suggest that coal prices are set to decline. Talk of tariff rises for OPG in 2019 could lead to a welcome bonus and make the stock look cheap on earnings, as well as assets – OPG currently trades at less than 0.5 times its book value.

However, it has net debt of £308m (plus lease commitments of £200m). Some £36m is due to be repaid this year and the interest bill is expected to be around £38m, with lease obligations on top. Cash is just £31m, although OPG has two investments to sell. Interest cover was thin last year and will be skinnier still this year, given analysts’ consensus view that pre-tax profits will fall from £17m to just £4m.

The safest option unfortunately is to pull the plug on OPG. If coal prices start to drop we will take another look.

Questor says: sell

Ticker: OPG

Share price at close: 30.62p

[andycapp1] 17/10/2017 14:05

Poor cash generation post debt and lease obligations. I'd say slightly old news in truth.

[turbocharge] 17/10/2017 13:34

Last IC View
Buy, 31p
30 Aug 2017

"The coal price has damaged the company’s performance badly in the short term, but with increases in generation capacity and India’s continued growth, we remain believers that OPG will generate significant upside in the medium term. Buy."