One Media Ip Share Discussion Threads

[briangeeee] 11/3/2015 10:48

Just donate the Brand to Clarkson, and have some sort of royalty or publishing deal.

[dibs61] 11/3/2015 09:31

Crikey BG wouldn't that put a rocket under the SP! Mind you I think his earnings/fees would easily outstrip OMIP's income!

[briangeeee] 10/3/2015 19:42

Not that I'm really a M&M fan, but I wonder if they're currently recruiting?!

[bdroop] 10/3/2015 18:13

Hey Oregano, re sustainability of the distribution pre payment by the Orchard - that looks very viable really as Scott Cohen ( The Orchard ) is a non exec of OMIP. So that would have to be very much above board and transparent you would have to imagine? The time it takes to recoup the advance and length of term would be interesting to learn and how that relates to the advances or whether they were extended to obtain the advance? Usually if you take an advance it can be at a cost to margin, but if that means you don't borrow money at the bank? .. -- As for the move to streaming - that I would see as a good thing for this company as opposed to being anything particular worrying. If anything Apple have been tidying up low level catalogue on their service recently which might not be helpful for OMIP? Spotify expanding, Apple streaming service on the way, Youtube Music Key currently in beta. This catalogue won't suddenly under perform on streaming services I suspect. Streaming is an income model that chugs along for the rights owner rather than explodes into life, it has got a long tail of income.The catalogue here is never going to set the world alight though but that can be OK. Buying the copyrights outright is a good strategy in a streaming world.

IMO It's got more going for it than BOOM which is car crash waiting to happen. I wouldn't get excited about Rightster either btw. I'm not invested here. GLA.

[yump] 10/3/2015 11:21

Having looked in a bit more detail, I think its a bit early to judge, given as posts have said above, that a lot happened last year which has really only had 6 months to get going.

Also was very helpful to see the reasoning behind streaming not being some sort of word-that-shall-not-be-mentioned.

With the current forecasts I can't think of anything to do other than sit on my hands.

[dibs61] 10/3/2015 10:41

Agree about question regarding the switch to streaming aspect which, in fairness, the CEO discusses quite openly and in some detail I thought in his statement. KPI's is a fair idea.

There was an adverse effect of FX LAST year but just as the fin year finished coincided with a substantial rise in the USD and since their earnings are made in dollars this should have a significantly beneficial effect in this fin year.

I also think you're being a little harsh re acquisitions since Point Classic (their largest purchase) was completed two thirds through the fin year so def not long enough to see a full impact.

[oregano] 10/3/2015 09:54

i am a bit sceptical here. there is clearly a big impact of the move to streaming which they elude to, but don't clarify. they need to publish more KPIs, the p&l doesn't tell the whole story.

there is clearly an FX hit here, but the growth is unimpressive given the acquisitions made.

i also wonder about the sustainability of that pre-payment from their distributor in this changing model.

[harrogate] 10/3/2015 08:13

They have beaten the EPS number as per GHF header above despite both revenue and PBT being lower than forecast. This seems to be due to a much lower tax charge than expected. I think it is a mixed bag and for me the jury is out until we see how they are going to grow given the move to streaming and away from download. The outlook statement seemed very general to me and it will be good to see some updated broker forecasts now. Hard to see much movement from here based on this set of results but good cash balance and very solid well run company.

[yump] 10/3/2015 08:00

Have I got my years muddled up or have they just firmly beaten the forecast ?

[briangeeee] 01/3/2015 21:02

Good to see some discussion here.
One point I'd make is to be careful not to apply pressure to the company to do deals for the sake of doing deals. It's very important that all deals (especially large ones requiring the issue of new equity), are significantly earnings enhancing. This is a relative matter, and it's easier to find assets that meet this criterion when the share price of OMIP is high. I am wary that sufficiently attractive assets can be found that merit issue of equity around current levels.
Organic growth is decent, and I'm happy with that should the right deal not materialise.
One other thing I'm wary about is car-related video. The company seems unusually focused on trivia like Men & Motors, and motor shows. Perhaps there's a significant market in such dated car stuff, but I don't think we've seen any such evidence.

[glasshalfull] 01/3/2015 10:48

Capt Bligh - No apologies necessary. Happy for anyone to use my posts (in context of course). Your post & negative response it drew annoyed me as the ZULU thread draws excellent investors but then the thread has these last 18 months been used to highlight share ideas rather than stocks with ZULU attributes. Probably in part due to the scarcity of such stocks at the moment & the fact that geswan isn't around anymore.

Normally I wouldn't mind & certainly enjoy reading through the various share ideas, but somewhere down the line I think the distinction has changed from investors looking through the track record of companies & instead focusing on broker forecasts which are indicative of earnings growth over the next 2/3 years. Investors then showcase this projected growth as evidence of an earnings record. So when you flagged OMIP to a negative response ...I felt compelled to update the header to clarify the investment case & highlight it.

As harrogate mentions, I think we all expected the deal-making to ratchet up a notch. The shareprice certainly did as it reached the heady heights of 20p a year ago. However, the silence has been deafening. No trading updates, in fact discounting the regulatory update on dividend & an award we haven't had any significant news since Point Classics catalogue acquisition on 3rd July 2014...that's not far shy of 8 months!

I'd hoped that Michael Infante and company would have used the opportunity of Mello Derby in Nov 2014 to meet with their shareholder base; company peers; institutional investors & fund managers such as Giles Hargreaves and Gervais Williams. I certainly encouraged OMIP to attend & the event was an excellent opportunity in meeting & understanding management strategy in a number of companies I was already invested in. Importantly, it encouraged me to research a number of others and I now have regular dialogue with the management of 3 others I'd never met before & a significant holding in 1 that I wouldn't have considered before. OMIP may have picked up an idea or two about the best approach to a listing on AIM IMHO & perhaps tickled the fancy of Lord John Lee, Katie Potts or other significant investors present...

MI & his team have done an excellent job here as earnings growth testifies... it's also not so long ago that he looked after the interests of ALL shareholders through the sharebuyback of 52% of the company's equity [48m shares for the knockdown price of 0.46p per share (£225k)] and subsequently cancelled these thus benefitting every shareholder and not simply a select few.

Anyway, roll on the 10th March when we'll receive an update on trading & outlook... & hopefully this will kickstart improved dialogue with the shareholder base.

Kind regards,
GHF

[harrogate] 01/3/2015 09:44

Great to see some movement here - even for me who thinks I am a patient investor it was getting dull. The key question for me is not the 2014 or 2015 numbers which should be in line due to core business and help from £/$ rate but why the deals have dried up. Is it because there aren't any catalogues we need, can get at a good price or can now monetise properly due to move away from download to streaming where the price per play is a fraction of the download money? They must have £2.5m in the bank and they came to AIM to do some deals. Fascinating to me why we have haven't been doing any! A significant "something" in early 2015 was hinted I am sure by the company somewhere a good while back so maybe watch this space.

[capt bligh] 28/2/2015 19:12

Thanks GHF...sorry for borrowing your header un acknowledged for the zulu thread by the way!

[battlebus2] 28/2/2015 12:03

You were very lucky there PJ, couldnt get them via the mm,s at all on Friday but i'll be chasing any drop.

[pj 1] 28/2/2015 11:47

I took a small amount of these on Friday. Strangely they were quite easy to pick up but I did notice each buy was followed by a rise, so I sit unsure if there is a seller/overhang or not
Thanks to GHF for another excelent concise summary/ report

[glasshalfull] 28/2/2015 08:16

Header updated to provide overview of the company.

Market Cap - Updated 28.02.2015


Market Cap: £10m
Net Cash: £1.4m (at 30.04.2014) with additional $2m royalty advanced received in June 2014
Enterprise Value: £8.6m
Shares in issue: 70,703,698


Summary - Updated 28.02.2015

OMIP has delivered 4-yrs profitable growth...and hopefully a 5th when 2014 results are released on the 10th March 2015 . The "moat" is its content library iP which now encompasses 190,000 music tracks which they monetise via most online stores (iTunes, Amazon, etc) or the streaming services such as Spotifiy, or indeed via tv, advert & film.

Alongside these music tracks, OMIP is also building a video content library.

Per the Charles Stanley note produced in 2014,

OMiP acquires and exploits intellectual property rights around music, video and e-books as well as spoken word. It has the rights to over 190,000 nostalgia music tracks, performed by over 4,000 artists from 90 years of music and 7,000 video programmes. This is delivered to over 600 web based music and video stores. OMiP currently has over 20,000 digital albums listed on sites like iTunes, Amazon, Spotify and YouTube. OMiP has identified audio and visual streaming of content for future growth as demonstrated by the growth seen in YouTube, Spotify and Deezer.

I've mentioned this share on the ZULU threads over the years, most notably when they traded between 2p-3p. On their move from PLUS to AIM in April 2013 they rose from 8p to 20p when I believed that the shareprice had moved away from fair value. However, since this time the price has fallen considerably through a combination of - high valuation attributed alongside lack of newsflow IMHO. I've been a buyer in recent months and weeks believing that they now look excellent value again.

You will have observed that c.20% earnings growth is forecast for year gone & c.25% forecast for this year (to 31/10/2015). Equates to a PEG of 0.7 if one considers EPS of 1.0p in the current financial year & considers 20% annual earnings growth a reasonable assumption given their financial track record.


Earnings


2009A Rev £795k / PBT £65.8k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.07p
2010A Rev £1.218m / PBT £250k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.20p (185% EPS growth)
2011A Rev £1.6m / PBT £331k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.35p (75% EPS growth)
2012A Rev £2.1m / PBT £428k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.62p (77% EPS growth)
2013A Rev £2.7m / PBT £524k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.61p (Nil EPS growth due to 15% increase in size of equity and £200k AIM listing costs)


Forecasts - Year End October

2014E Rev £3.1m / PBT £0.75m / Fully Diluted EPS 0.75p (19% EPS growth)
2015E Rev £3.7m / PBT £1m / Fully Diluted EPS 0.95p (27% EPS growth)

The reason for the lack of earnings growth in 2013 can be attributed to the placing of 9.4m shares (increased equity by c.15%) & associated costs of £200k on their move from PLUS Markets to AIM.

Recent Results - Interims to 30.04.2014

2014 Interim's demonstrated strong growth in PBT of 31%.



Highlights (for 6 months to April 2014):

* Turnover up 13% to £1,492,412 (2013: £1,325,119);
* Profit before tax up 31.5% to £344,865 (2013: £262,180);
* Cash balances of £1,411,305 at 30 April 2014 (2013: £1,919,668);
* Dividend of 0.077p per ordinary share paid in November in respect of the
year ended 31 October 2013; and
* Interim dividend of 0.071p per ordinary share declared in respect of the
six month period ended 30 April 2014.
* Following period end OMIP received a USD$2,000,000 advance against future royalties from the Company's distributor, The Orchard.

Conclusion

Release of the interims was followed in July 2014 by the earnings enhancing acquisition of classical content which OMIP claim leaves their classical library as, "one of the leading digital libraries worldwide".

It should also be noted that c.95% of OMiP's revenue is generated in US $ with the majority of their generated in £. It receives $ payments on a monthly basis, partially converting a proportion to £ to meet costs...so should have been a beneficiary of the strong US $.

Operating margins are also stable at c.20% & forecast to rise to c.25% in 2015 & 2016.
Cashflow positive, albeit they have continually added to their content library over the last 9/10 years with c. £4m invested in music, spoken word and video content.

Michael Infante, CEO had the foresight in early 2000's to recognise that digital media was the growth area as CD sales plateaued. With the more recent growth of streaming for both music and TV content, plus growth in sales of Smart TVs, he has positioned the company to take advantage to these changes to consumer behaviour during the next decade. They have proven to have a sustainable & growing business model over the last 5-years, certainly fulfilling a number of ZULU characteristics.

Whilst the industry landscape is constantly changing & the Group experiencing challenges such as copyright infringement; European sales tax challenges & method of consumer content consumption they have consistently delivered in recent years.

On a PEG of 0.7 & soon to deliver a 5-year growth record while offering a progressive dividend, they are certainly worthy of further research.

Preliminary results out on 10.03.2015.

Regards,
GHF

[yump] 27/2/2015 15:36

Presumably they kind of ran out of stock/sellers since October. Have accumulated quite a few now. For once I actually bought at the bottom - what a shocker.

[dibs61] 27/2/2015 13:20

I didn't make any assumptions on you apf did I? but you did so enjoy your humble pie and I see we moved up again. Well done on your successful investment here but it was rather odd of you to draw assumptions and more embarrassing for you to be wrong. I'm quite straight up about my dealing.

[cheshire man] 27/2/2015 13:17

Let's hope we have some positive news next week :-)

(17/06/2014) ch & ceo - "We are confident that your company is correctly positioned to meet the many demands within the industry"

[the shuffle man] 27/2/2015 13:13

When its been flat lining for ages this is a move !

[apfindley] 27/2/2015 13:05

DibsFail"On the move" was when i bought at 2.5p and it went to 18pOh well

[glasshalfull] 27/2/2015 12:36

Trade data also through ISDX platform



Regards,
GHF

[dibs61] 27/2/2015 12:13

apfindley - as my daughters would say "Epic Fail" on your 100% incorrect assumption. I have made three purchases here, one at 11.3p last Nov and two more on Monday @ 11.5p.

SP up 8.33% and 13p so I think justified in saying "on the move" :)