One Media Ip Share Discussion Threads

[harrogate] 18/12/2017 08:14

I am positive as while things have improved this could be a step change in outlook and maybe intent and it could be that the price was agreed some time ago.

[yump] 18/12/2017 08:10

I guess the share price will tell whether folk regard the positive aspects of having the those big names on board will outweigh the low share purchase price.

[yump] 18/12/2017 07:30

Seriously heavyweight NED's on board ! Shame that their stated confidence in the business isn't reflected in the price they paid for shares (2.5p), when the rest of us buying at what looked like a rise off the bottom have paid substantially more. At least they are unlikely to be quick buck in-and-out merchants with their investments, unlike the sort of thing that can happen with placings.

Lets hope their influence and contacts will make that 2.5p irrelevant.

Although that 2.5p is bugging me - it feels like its being run as a bit of a private company, disregarding existing investors and two mates have come on board as a bit of a punt. As they are not being paid a salary, there's no obligation to contribute and the amount of money invested can't really be much of an incentive, as I assume they have a lot more where that came from.

Why is it I always end up regretting investing in media businesses...

[glasshalfull] 20/11/2017 18:01

Evening yump,

Just caught sight of your earlier message. Unfortunately I don't have any detailed breakdown. Simply put, I'm content with the direction of travel but I'm sure the CEO or member of the team would be happy to answer your query if you contact them direct.

Agree that today's RNS is welcome. Hopefully some much needed PR & statement also echos the positive sentiment from recent trading update.

Onward & upwards!

Kind regards
GHF

[yump] 20/11/2017 11:44

Looks quite timely:

"One Media iP Group plc (AIM: OMIP), a digital media content provider that
exploits intellectual property rights around music video and copyright
technology, announces the appointment of Luther Pendragon Ltd as the Group's
retained financial PR adviser.

Michael Infante, Chairman and Chief Executive of One Media, commented: "This is
an exciting time for One Media as the paid music streaming industry is poised
for growth and we are well-positioned to benefit from this - both in terms of
our music and video catalogues and our TCAT offering. As such, this is the
right moment to bring on board Luther Pendragon to raise our profile and
communicate our strengths and strategy among existing and new stakeholders as
we progress to the next stage of our development. We look forward to working
with Harry and his team, and establishing a strong relationship with them."

I tried to think of a clever quip about King Arthur/Merlin/Camelot etc. but failed.

[yump] 17/11/2017 10:27

GHF - if you're looking...

Have you seen anywhere OMIP's revenue growth from streaming ?
I'm wondering whether it has tracked the growth in global streaming revenues.
Obviously there was a big delay while OMIP adjusted their model and tried to access that market, so presumably OMIP are having to grab bits of market share, not just 'automatically' get some.

ie. if they had tracked the growth, revenues would not have dipped in the first place.

Perhaps I haven't looked closely enough, but I'd like to know what rate its increasing at here.

[nextlink] 08/11/2017 17:36

Interesting.

[capt bligh] 08/11/2017 16:52

Infante "prepare for new bulletin soon!" twitter

[dibs61] 06/11/2017 13:59

apfindley - I certainly agree with your first two points but then you contradict yourself. This is,and likely always will be,an illiquid stock. Therefore whether it goes up 15% or down 15% rarely if ever will there be the sheer volume to ‘support’; it that you might see in a liquid stock.

Currently mms are happy to take stock at a higher price because (I suspect) they know the demand is,or either will be, there on the order book.

This stock is only going one way.

[apfindley] 06/11/2017 12:45

Liquidity movement. Short supplyGood to see it move, but the volume doesn't support the percentage increase.

[yump] 06/11/2017 12:21

Who bought up all the shares and stopped me averaging down after the update ?? Now I'll just have to wait to see if it puts me back into profit in a year or so. Shouldn't have been so smug after catching ASH just after the gov. removed the housing cap.

[nextlink] 06/11/2017 11:21

Selling having currently dried up, after almost three years, modest demand is
driving it up at quite a pace.

[harrogate] 06/11/2017 08:19

GHF - that is very useful indeed. Thanks for your usual efforts. I was a little shocked by the EPS numbers for 2018 and 2019 - in a good way and have clearly underestimated how the turmoil in the move to streaming would subside and OMIP would come out better and stronger. Any news on M&M ( which I have always thought of as a bit of a red herring ) or more likely TCAT could really make things interesting. Thanks again.

[dibs61] 05/11/2017 19:30

Many thanks Glasshalful. A very bullish analysis.

[nextlink] 05/11/2017 10:37

Thank you for the update

[glasshalfull] 05/11/2017 09:55

Morning,

I now have Panmure Gordon's forecasts & updated the header accordingly while also taking the opportunity to summarise the business.

Copy below.

---
OMIP

Market Cap - Updated 05.11.2017

Market Cap: £3.5m
Net Cash: £228k (at 30.04.2017)
Enterprise Value: £3.3m
Shares in issue: 71,053,698

Summary - Updated 05.11.2017

Michael Infante, CEO had the foresight in early 2000's to recognise that digital media was the growth area as CD sales plateaued. We witnessed the growth in digital downloads & latterly streaming for both music and TV content, plus growth in sales of smart TV's. MI positioned the company to take advantage to these shifting trends in consumer behaviour during the next decade. They grew earnings considerably between 2009 - 2014. Since this time the market underwent further significant changes with the rapid decline of the digital purchase of content - from the likes of iTunes - & move to a streaming model supported by Spotify, YouTube, Amazon, Deezer, Pandora, etc. This has greatly impacted OMIP in recent years as download revenues (when a track was purchased) generated a large one-off payment for each download versus the streaming revenues which only produce a fraction of this each time a track is listened to.

The growth in streaming services & subscribers has now risen so to a level where this offsets the revenue decline OMIP had suffered with the reduction of downloads. To highlight this rapid change it may be worth highlighting the Global Music Revenues for 2012 & 2016

2012 - Digital Music download $5bn / Music Streaming $2bn
2016 - Digital Music Download $2.5bn / Music Streaming $7bn

Music Streaming is forecast to rise a further 37% to $9.1bn in 2017 (source PwC). In 2012 downloads accounted for 70% of global digital music revenues which benefitted OMIP considerably via their 250k catalogue of tracks, while the streaming market only made up 18% of digital music revenues.

In 2017 streaming is forecast to reach 73% of digital music as downloads reduce to 23%.

Despite these recent challenges OMIP has remained profitable since 2009 with the market - IMHO - failing to attribute much value to its content library iP which now encompasses 250k+ music tracks which they monetise via most online stores (iTunes, Amazon, YouTube etc) or via streaming services, or indeed via tv, advert & film.



Within the considerable music catalogue they acquired Point Classics for $1.6m in 2014 which gave them access to 5,000 recordings of classical music which allows synchronisation deals with film & tv production.



They also have over 10,000 hours of video content which they monetise through a variety of channels. For example, they have over 20 YouTube channels which support their content.



In the last couple of years they have invested in the internal development of a Technical Copyright Analysis Tool (“TCAT") which has been signed up by a major music distributor to utilise the product as SaaS. This is a tool for "content policing" , protecting ownership rights across the multiple digital platforms.



The company also hope to develop the Men & Motor brand amongst other initiatives & has developed a new format pilot TV show while monetising the 3,400 catalogue of shows.



On release of H1 2017 results (in June 2017), Michael Infante, Chairman and CEO, commented: “I am pleased to report a steadying of the ship and early indications that we are beginning to see our repositioned business model starting to benefit from the effect of ‘digital audio streaming’ gaining traction over ‘digital audio downloads’. I have previously explained the seismic shift in our audio monetisation model and its consequential degradation on our revenues over the last two years. The Group has been very vocal and transparent on this and I have gone to lengths to explain this in my previous Chairman’s statements. The indication is that we are at an inflection point and that growth is back on the horizon.

Combine this with our new initiatives in TCAT and Men & Motors, together with our core business and we are beginning to demonstrate early momentum for our growth strategy. We predicted that Q1 2017 would be the beginning of the ‘streaming monetisation’ insurgency against ‘downloads’ and that we would begin to feel the benefit of those effects moving forward. I continue to have confidence in our market approach and our new music, video and technical related initiatives are well positioned to retain our mission of ‘IP’ exploitation, growth and continued profit.”

The inflexion point would appear to have been reached following release of the undernoted t/s on 01.11.2017



The statement confirmed a profitable company with strong cash position with MI commenting,

“The year under review highlights the end of the downward trend and demonstrates that streaming becomes the more dominant format of choice looking ahead. I have articulated this over the last three years and we now begin to see the benefit of this transformation.”

Earnings

2009A Rev £795k / PBT £65.8k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.07p
2010A Rev £1.218m / PBT £250k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.20p (+185% EPS growth)
2011A Rev £1.6m / PBT £331k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.35p (+75% EPS growth)
2012A Rev £2.1m / PBT £428k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.62p (+77% EPS growth)
2013A Rev £2.7m / adj PBT £524k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.61p (Nil EPS growth due to 15% increase in size of equity and adjusted by £200k for AIM listing costs)
2014A Rev £2.9m / PBT £642k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.83p (+36% EPS growth)
2015A Rev £2.5m / PBT £449k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.47p ( -43% EPS reduction)
2016A Rev £2.0m / PBT £30k / Fully Diluted EPS 0.1p ( -83% EPS reduction)

Forecasts - Year End October

2017E Rev £2.3m / PBT £0.3m / Fully Diluted EPS 0.4p (+300% EPS growth)
2018E Rev £2.8m / PBT £0.6m / Fully Diluted EPS 0.7p (+75% EPS growth)
2019E Rev £3.5m / PBT £0.9m / Fully Diluted EPS 1.0p (+43% EPS growth)

Conclusion

OMIP have invested c.£4-£5m in content since inception, a figure greater than their current market cap. They have also retained net cash throughout the years. The company has been profitable since 2009 (see earnings record above) albeit the last few years have proven v difficult with the inexorable rise of streaming.

Panmure Gordon are forecasting that the year just ended (31.10.2017) will find turnover on an upward trajectory yet again, with PBT rising 300% from the low PBT achieved in 2016. Importantly, if MI proves correct with his assessment on end of this download/streaming transition, this suggests we should now begin to see a recovery in operating margins (to c.20%), profitability & cashflow in the coming years.

Let's not forget that while the core business has stabilised, the TCAT, Men & Motors & Point Classics initiatives are all ongoing (see web site development & links above) each of which could contribute to future earnings growth.

Overall, the EV value of only £3m fails - IMHO - to attribute any valuation to these future initiatives while OMIP's content library of +250,000 tracks (core business) should now enjoy an upsurge in revenues & profitability as music streaming growth continues.

Kind regards,
GHF

[the shuffle man] 02/11/2017 08:14

Panmure have reaffirmed their Buy recommendation. Will see if I can get a copy.

[microscope] 01/11/2017 13:43

Good to see the 'old team' still following this. Nice RNS this morning and good that Michael thinks the worst has passed. Will obviously take a while to filter through to the bottom line, but the shares have probably passed the worst and with a solid balance sheet the shares should start up in the right direction once again.

(O/T: Some of you here were Ofex regulars, and might remember Ashley House, now on AIM, (Aim:ASH). I'm not here to ramp it, but yesterday's government announcement on residential property law has huge implications for them. With the shares languishing below 10p I've bought a few and it looks as though a few others have the same idea. Might be worth a look.)

[glasshalfull] 01/11/2017 13:34

If you want to send me the forecasts Dibs? My broker struggles to obtain Panmure notes.

Kind regards,
GHF

[dibs61] 01/11/2017 12:16

Glass - good to see you back. Any chance of updating the forecasts in the header? :)

capt Bligh - have you got a link please? Can’t find it on Twitter

[capt bligh] 01/11/2017 09:55

Hm also the MM twitter has a picture of the two principals making a shssh sign?

[harrogate] 01/11/2017 09:37

Great to see them weathering the storm of the switch from download to streaming. Would love to see some action on the IP protection software that they have developed. I think that will be needed to get some real movement in the share price but what's not to like about the general tone on the announcement.

[glasshalfull] 01/11/2017 09:32

Agree with you both. Company was only on a mkt cap of £2.5m this morning. I'd imagine their catalogue alone worth multiples of this.

Well done MI & team.

Kind regards
GHF

[dibs61] 01/11/2017 08:07

Agreed Shuffle. MI sounds confident. So am I.

And yes this is very cheap imho