Oilex Ld Share Discussion Threads

[noirua] 16/1/2020 17:40

BB:
This is a major bullish reversal pattern, which is even more significant...

[noirua] 16/1/2020 13:28

Looks like some buying at low levels at 0.164p - 0.1644p. News is due on the Cambay sale that will at least put a solid value on the 45% held by Oilex.
Stifled trading in Australia due to the 0.1c trade intervals but bid - offer at 0.4c/0.5c 0.213p/0.265p

[rapidlyprogressing] 15/1/2020 09:24

Well that post made sense

[mgellie] 15/1/2020 09:24

Clearly rapidlyretrogressing. Might your language cretin

[geoffmanana] 15/1/2020 09:13

Filter......I have.

[silversoldier] 14/1/2020 16:23

Add some constructive comments or do one buddy. You're either writing nonsense on here or VAL. Im always happy to here counter arguments/discussions but with your constant waffle of "1 trade" meaning or "placement coming soon" is beyond boring and childish.

[cool hand kev] 14/1/2020 15:30

7.5 x the current share price or 1.35p
Cheap as chips

[noirua] 14/1/2020 13:04

SEAM Alert: GSPC has commenced a formal sale process for its 55% participating interest in the Cambay PSC onshore India
13 December 2019
Our analysis of comparable acquisitions indicates that 55% working interest of Gujarat State Petroleum Corp. in the undeveloped Cambay Tight Gas Project onshore India, with 1.3 Tcfe (72% gas) of gross 2C contingent resources (or 711 Bcfe net to 55% interest), might fetch $60–130 million in an outright sale ($0.08–0.18 per Mcfe). The low end of the valuation has been chosen to reflect the tight reservoir and potential application of new technologies.


The above means that OEX's 45% at the low end is worth not less than US$49 million £37.5 million.
-----

[noirua] 14/1/2020 11:34

Maybe OEX will be offered a cash sum for their interest in Cambay. If a major oil company bids then they would probably not want to share the interest with a tiddler. So it just might be worth thinking about how much OEX might receive. Experts here may have some idea.

Then the matter of dilution would vanish in a flash.

[rapidlyprogressing] 14/1/2020 10:36

Massive dilution coming. This is a dog share. Unlucky LTH's!!

[teraferma] 14/1/2020 10:34

josephrobert13 Jan '20 - 22:05 - 22807 of 22810

Aren't we owed $5.69mUSD BTW Terra? The latest report has 'Total outstanding cash calls from GSPC - Est. USD$5.690 MM (inclusive of the Est. USD$2.636 MM pursuant to the EoD).'

I saw this figure but can't quite understand how the cash call has gone up from circa $3M last year to $5.6M, with Cambay and Bhandut shut in.

Anyhow, all speculation on my part, but I envisaged Oilex using their pre-emptive rights to take the full 100% with partner backing, then farm down.

Costs for the 2020 work programme are roughly $6M.
(est. cost US$2.5 - $3million per vertical well and horizontal wells $6-7M)

Say they retain 30% Cambay, that would give them a cash balance of $10M approx.

Failing to see the downside here, seeing as the courts and DGH have ruled in their favour.

[silversoldier] 13/1/2020 23:14

And your post and language is? Lol

[josephrobert] 13/1/2020 22:18

A link via the other board



'...it has a pre-emption right which would give it a further opportunity to pick up the asset should a third-party out-bid the company.'

Surely this underpins the price?

[josephrobert] 13/1/2020 21:23

Teraferma 5 Jan '20 - 15:49 - 22746 of 22804 - well clearly we don't have any oil and gas assets, just contingent resources, and I always discounted Canning at 0 - unless oil turned to $200USD - so I too largely have the same feeling as the EIS & AUS. However if the value of Cambay is unlocked then I can see we could have sufficient organic growth from Cambay to initially fund the other concerns which I imagine will need little cash for a while - the higher the Market Cap the greater the ability to fund organic growth through share issues.

I am still comfortable with basing OEX's share on a conversation sometime down the line - (like GSPC once stated, I don't necessarily believe that the incoming party have has had discussions of any note with OEX - probably just fishing - however Oilex does/once pointed to drilling this year). Gut says that if OEX believes in the Cambay field then it will do it's best to retain the maximum possible. Recently RKH has done well to keep it's share respectable so I hope we can too.

The valuation of mine in £ is the same in $ as yours as we are basing it on the same info. in 2013 but I am hoping that the macroenvironment is supportive of larger demand so lets hope our basis is conservative. The key thing is a good quality partner who can pay it's share and more to develop Cambay - we don't want any dodgy agents (LEK - I was one of the lucky ones with sales of 50% on one day and the rest on another) or little known far eastern concerns who have trouble raising the £'s (BLVN back in the day etc etc).

BTW curious of the mechanics of our right of first refusal.

I can't see that that OEX will farm down just to fund the two vertical drills - 45% to 10-15% - that's a too high a price to get us a year down the line. That would be a huge disappointment to me but clearly the share price would be a lot higher - 1) Relief that it is over and 2). We have an assigned value which is greater than the MCap. How much has OEX stated the price of 2 vertical wells?

Some of what we are discussing is speculation - so all we can do is to take our positions and hope for a good result.

[josephrobert] 13/1/2020 20:43

Noirua - 5 Jan '20 - 19:01 - 22749 of 22804

The problem with the Align research was that it was based on Discounted Cash Flows - which for Cambay's contingent resources is a bit confusing - or far reaching. If we don't know if we can commercially extract the resource, why get a spreadsheet and fill it with numbers that prove absolutely nothing until we know we can get the stuff out of the ground?

The other thing is that Align research has caveats on it somewhere on the web which says that the info it has produced on OEX in the past cannot be counted on - I am not sure why that is there - I am not sure it is specific to Oilex, might be wrong that it is something to the do with a battle between Align and another 'paid for research company'.

[stockport loser] 13/1/2020 15:04

Oz market moves in 0.1s - it can be down 25% the next day, as you were.

[noirua] 13/1/2020 12:29

Some discussion in Australia is on the Irish Sea acquisition. Possibly why there is a little more interest at 0.4c on ASX and Chia-X.

Aussie Market Depth can be viewed at this Link:

[cool hand kev] 13/1/2020 11:03

Really I'll be here forever :-( Thanks

[noirua] 13/1/2020 10:41

I seem to remember holdups in other companies was due to discussions with various parties on how they will pay and often at what intervals, depending on whether statements by the seller turnout quite as accurate as they say.
Also proof by the buyer that they are in a position to pay or whether it depends on cash raising success. In the case of Chinese companies they usually need approval from the Chinese government that can take up to two years though normally about six months.