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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oilex Ld LSE:OEX London Ordinary Share AU000000OEX8 ORD NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 0.165 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers -0.93 -0.04 14
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 0.165 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
30/7/202207:37Oilex 808
27/7/202213:07OILEX - Significant upside at Cambay and Canning basin25,699
27/5/202207:14bobsky46
13/4/202213:43Above 8.5p targets 12p again for Oilex (OEX)78
13/4/202213:43Bust in 6 months!20

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Posted at 21/7/2022 06:14 by bigpecs
OEX RNS ref Frack all systems go, we need regular updates along the way GLA time to get the big buyers in and get this share price moving
Posted at 15/7/2022 11:07 by josephrobert
Courtesy of Jasper13 on the other board is the answer to my earlier question of where this 75% chance of success (presumably over 2mmscfd) has come from.

hTTps://www.share-talk.com/oilex-ltd-management-team-asxaimoex-qa-update-shareholders-questions/#gs.6dtpyd


Also worth highlighting is that if this refrac fails OEX start plan B - which presumably means numerous vertical wells tied into the low pressure gas network - personally I thought they would have another go on Plan A - so with that in mind my take on that is that OEX feel they have the only possible solution to how a horizontal drill can work and they will test it with this refrac.


There was somebody else on the other board saying that Schlumberger don't involve themselves with failures, well the same company thought lessons had been learned on 76H when they failed on 77H - whether that was a failure as they did the best they could - or a failure as they involved themselves with a project that tried without a core sample. Another thought Schlumberger wouldn't have involved themselves with another failure in Cambay unless they were certain - well it sounds like people are looking for evidence to support their outcome.


Personally I agree with Jasper that OEX is undervalued based on what I said before, but I am not basing it on a comparison with the other similar projects. Valuations based on DCF - well there is something wrong with the pipeline and we are probably due an update on that combined with the an RNS on the refrac. Plus I haven't seen an indication how long these wells will produce. Anyway maybe it can be argued that this is a moot point as the refrac will stop 77 producing and who knows about 73. Certainly these couple of points haven't helped the share price

Posted at 04/7/2022 09:55 by josephrobert
The other board also reminded us of the market cap of OEX today vs what is was in 2014


Shortly before the horizontal Frac in July 2014 the market cap is around 6p x 600m shares
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Equity-Financing-Facility-Drawdown-and-A/62902328

Now the market cap is around 0.17p x 8000m shares
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Placement-Issue-of-Securities/88257772

£36m vs £14m

Even stranger is that these 'valuations' were based on 45% of Cambay in 2014 vs 100% today

Dividing the previous market cap by by the percentage share of Cambay, i.e. £36m/0.45 comes to £80m. That means if everything else being equal today's market cap should be at £80m.

So what's different now? We are not facing a horizontal dril and frac but a refrac, the AIM share index has taken a beating, the interests of the company outside of Cambay are broadly neglible both now and then, the gas price has gone up, the chance of getting a successful frac has gone up, Indian political conditions don't appear to changed for the worse, funding for small oilers has I imagine gone down...the valuations of small oilers seem to have gone down big time.

So did the market overvalue OEX in 2014 and is it seriously undervaluing OEX in 2022? So as a balance for the frothy conditions of 2014, we can see that the trade buyer Magna* valued Cambay at $4m for 10%, ie £30m for the project in 2013. Takeaway $18m for OEXs share from its market cap of £36m means to me it was overvalued as I can't explain the difference other than market conditions at the time plus the value for a listing.


So it looks to me OEX was too expensive then, but it sure does look undervalued now.


*Incidently 10% of Magna was comverted / seen as worth 12.46% of OEX on the 2nd May 2014, so Magna took a massive hit on that, 73.5m shares valued at 5p or whatever at the time, hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Magna-Cambay-Transaction-Update/62053048. Magna never recovered from the failure of the horizontal well and subsequent dilution.

Posted at 28/6/2022 14:51 by josephrobert
This was the order of events back in 2014 - including the day I - and other LTHs - won't forget - the 21st July 2014. The main problem was that 77H began to produce less gas than expected. This was underlined in the last RNS in the list below when it stated it would be connected to the low pressure network. This shows that we could intially get very positive results in July, but the real test is expected some weeks later.


24/06/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well - Commencement of Frac Stimulation
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Well-Commencement-of-Frac-S/62669846


02/07/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well Frac Stim Operations Update
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Well-Frac-Stim-Operations-Upd/62770131##


04/04/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well Frac Stim Operations Update
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Well-Frac-Stim-Operations-Upd/62808201


07/07/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well Frac Stim Operations Complete
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Well-Frac-Stim-Operations-Com/62818422


14/07/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well - Milling Operations Complete
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Well-Milling-Operations-Com/62888745#


21/07/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H - Flaring Gas and Light Oil Recovered
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Flaring-Gas-and-Light-Oil-R/62965630


04/08/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H - Flow-back Update
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Flow-back-Update/63129981


21/08/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H - Interim Flow-back Update
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Interim-Flow-back-Update/63328049


17/09/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H - Intervention Complete
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-77H-Intervention-Complete/63662103

Posted at 11/4/2022 10:24 by josephrobert
For what it is worth firestorm911 - 11 Apr '22 - 10:24 - 688 of 690 - I am pencilling in support at the share price at or around 25p; with the Frac becoming closer and production started many people would be surprised for the share price to fall back to those levels. Well done for making money and building a decent position; now's the time to get ready for the possibility of a big move up.
Posted at 11/4/2022 09:39 by josephrobert
For C73, I found this:

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-73-Production-Facilities-Comple/66595360

50 boepd = 263 MMBtu x $6 = $1,578 per day or $576k

hxxps://energy-sea.gov.il/English-Site/Pages/Data%20and%20Maps/calc.aspx


For C77H, I found this:

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-Production-Update-C-73-and-C-77/74669141

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-India-Operations-Update/69766928

So that appears to be about the same as C73 for gas, i.e. $1.15m

True upside is based upon actual gas prices obtained

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Cambay-Basin-demonstrates-strong-economi/64768321

So back in Dec 2014 they had based the gas price on obtainable prices, which were apparently $8/MMBtu. If they were the same (I would guess they are a lot more) then $1.15m x $8/$6 = $1.15 x 1.33 = $1.5295

Then we have condensate production on top.

252 barrels for every ten days = 252x365/10 = 252 x 36.5 = 9198. 9198 x $90? = $827,820

So that works out as $2.35m pa


There are too many variables to know if this will prove to be an accurate figure, but I think that gives us some basis to work on that production will cover operational costs.

Posted at 08/4/2022 08:54 by demark
currently capitalised @£23m
and even @1p share price it would be £72m

too many stale bulls in oex,
in my opinion.

mms might move the share price up
significantly to find a new
trading band!!!!

Posted at 06/2/2022 22:43 by shanew48
Oh, spoilsport! lol, yes, see what you're saying, I've seen the OEX share price rise 400% overnight in OZ before so who knows how high the share price will be come close tomorrow at 4.30pm!
Posted at 30/1/2022 15:56 by josephrobert
That's a fair amount of text Transact201830 Jan '22 - 13:57 - 428 of 428

If I can add to that I would suggest that there is a misunderstanding on the flow rate of 77 and 73. I quick look at the history of 77H will show an intial flow rate which vanished to next to nothing. For example

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/oilex-ld-OEX/share-news/Oilex-Ltd-Quarterly-Report-31-December-2015/70173733

'Cambay-77H

During the quarter, the Company completed the workover at Cambay-77H which included replacement of the frac tree with a production tree and installation of production tubing.

Since restarting production, Cambay-77H has gradually increased from 51 boepd. The initial average production rate for 10 days (IP10) was 71.5 boepd and average IP10 condensate gas ratio (CGR) was 92.5 bbls/MMscf. Production for 30 days was achieved on 4 January 2016 and Cambay-77H averaged 70 boepd, meeting the buyer's demand, with an average tubing head pressure of 1,851psig and the CGR remained stable averaging 90 bbls/MMscf. With further production, it is still expected that the CGR may decrease to the anticipated 40-50 bbls/MMscf as the tubing head pressure decreases..'

They produced a lot more oil than expected due to the unsucessful frac. They drilled for gas and got oil, and they don't want oil - they dodn't have the infrastructure for that.

The pre frac production is uncommercial; it will burn cash not add.

I think we also need to make clear that if the 77 refrac is successful with kicking out commercial returns based on the expected future cost of a horizontal drill i.e. the 3-5 mmscfd then we then prepare for two drills in the second half. If the refrac is not successful then we can't show to investors a possibility of a commercial return. It either works or it doesn't, it is an almost binary outcome - we are either worth a lot more than we are now, of maybe the same if we are lucky.

It may make sense to look towards the steps needed for the refrac rather than something which may or or may not happen until we get a sucessful result from the refrac. Other than that the other driver of the share price will be the GOIs 'rubber stamp'.

Hope it helps somewhat to explain why the share price is at current levels.

GLAH

Posted at 09/7/2021 09:10 by zxie
Last year, India's epidemic affected oex share price plummet. Investment risk increases here
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