Oilex Ld Share Discussion Threads

[ukdannyboy] 18/12/2019 13:40

I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t some form of update on Monday, whether it sends us to the moon or not will depend what it says.

[silversoldier] 18/12/2019 08:50

Given where we are now, I'm guessing something in the new year. Although, I would quite happily take an update on Monday that sends us to the moon lol

[cool hand kev] 18/12/2019 08:08

So when is the news due here?

[josephrobert] 16/12/2019 07:35

What are your calculations for the valuation of Oilex’s 45% stake Serialinvestor1?

You certainly know how to write, and understanding how you have calculated this 1.2p/share will give strength to your words.

[serialinvestor1] 14/12/2019 21:34

Josephrobert, firstly, thanks for the link above. Some serious potential at play.

Secondly, and to answer your question, I’ve derived my base valuation of Oilex’s 45% stake by simply applying a substantial discount (as it is unproven...) on the in situ value of the company’s contingent resources of 377 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 17.3 million barrels of crude oil. The spot prices employed were $2.30 and $58.50 respectively.

I've employed the valuation method above as I strongly believe Joe, and the rest of Oilex's BOD, will prefer 'asset divestment' over 'asset development', where proceeds from the former (sale of Cambay stake) will allow them to return a significant amount of capital back to shareholders (through a possible dividend in specie) and to develop the staggering Cooper-Eromanga assets without recourse to any further capital raises.

This is why the upcoming newsflow is potentially transformational for Oilex. Investors will finally be able to place a value (via a read-through of GSPC's 55% stake valuation) on Cambay whilst at the same time determining the appetite for the company's 45% stake.

For those new to oil and gas investing, ‘contingent resources’ are potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered (by drilling) volumes but is not yet commercial.

Block4gooner, the current price pattern suggests we are likely to smash through your average early next week so hold tight.

More importantly though, and going by the company’s last corporate update, additional bidders, that had joined the party late, requested GSPC to extend it by 2.5 weeks. This suggests there’s strong interest for GSPC’s circa 500 billion cubic feet of natural gas (contingent) amongst the Gujarat-based oil players. Surprise surprise…

So, if there’s such strong interest for GSPC’s 55% stake, why would I, as an Oilex investor, give away my shares for anything below £39m (1.2p per share)?

Answer – I wouldn’t.

I’d rather sit put and wait for the winning bid announcement (and valuation) and the subsequent read-through into Oilex’s 45% stake. I anticipate a pleasant outcome.

In the meantime, sit back and observe the re-rate as punters begin to pile-in ahead of 22:00 Sunday, and as the bidders race to submit their final offers for this considerable asset.

All in my humble opinion.

ATB.

[josephrobert] 14/12/2019 13:44

Worth listening to this again - 22.08 in - includes the 5 point plan which explains what this company can become

[josephrobert] 14/12/2019 13:11

What are your calculations for the valuation of Oilex’s 45% stake Serialinvestor1?

[block4gooner] 14/12/2019 07:54

I bought a small amount a couple of months ago but my ave is .246 so still a way to go for me sadly

[serialinvestor1] 14/12/2019 03:12

Block4Gooner, having been here for ages, I'm somewhat envious at those entering now - who appear to have timed it pretty well. It's an excellent entry point.

That said, and to truly reap the rewards from a substantive re-rating of the company shares, private investors would be wise to hold positions until the successful participant (the winning bid) is announced. This is currently projected at around two to three weeks after the bid closure announcement.

And Friday's modest volume of 47.5m shares, alongside a 15% jump in the share price, suggests there's a small free float; shrewdly manufactured by a significant number of savvy private investors going LONG. This bodes well for next week.

ATB.

[block4gooner] 13/12/2019 22:05

So your advice is "GO LONG"Ball park of how long would be appreciated

[smackeraim] 13/12/2019 15:57

Could easily spike up to 0.4-0.5 in the days after imo probably more given time

[ukdannyboy] 13/12/2019 15:28

What do people think the price could be if there is good news about bids next week, could this get back up to .50p again or is .30p more realistic? People think it could go down to .12p but that doesn’t really seem possible or likely???

[cool hand kev] 13/12/2019 08:29

Perhaps I should ask jayj4u what's happening - share price over Sold or Dead Cat Bounce?

[silversoldier] 13/12/2019 08:26

Well that's one big bounce

[jayj4u] 12/12/2019 12:09

Yes, this is going ONLY one way.... bad sign is when the director start to issue lots of shares....India at the moment going down.... next level to watch is 0.12p

[leewink1] 11/12/2019 15:58

Looks like it's dropping to 0.1 if they don't do something soon.

[stockport loser] 10/12/2019 15:26

If something's happening we should see some movement next week.

[cool hand kev] 10/12/2019 13:47

I'm long from 0.2 and still waiting :-)
And I never put a stitch up out of the question - this is AIM

[stockport loser] 10/12/2019 13:16

It's worth a punt at this price, they have bidders so whilst there may be more delay it's highly likely to be going ahead - including the money owed. Unless they are looking to shaft OEX like the way KOOV has gone.

[cool hand kev] 10/12/2019 12:42

Yes a poor investor?
I thought that you had put the cat out and all gone home