Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 14/2/2017 10:24

UK rent growth continues to gently ease.




CPI rises slightly to 1.8%. RPI unchanged at 1.8%. I have to admit, these are lower than I expected, although energy bills and car tax are about to jump.



Factory gate (output) prices inflation rises to 3.5%. Input prices inflation rises to 20.5%.



House prices rise £3k in December to take the annual increase to 7.2%. (Beware that lower activity at the bottom of the market could skew the average price upwards.)



Edit - apparently the Land Registry introduced mix adjustment and a geometric mean last summer. I was not aware. Mix adjustment takes out variations in volume at a particular price level that might skew results. A geometric mean gives more weight to prices near the mean and less to outliers.

[mrphil] 14/2/2017 10:02

Morning All.

The low was 4.5°C last night after a high of 10.7°C yesterday. Cloudy this morning and looking quote miserable out there.

Market not keen on results from RR. this morning.

[aleman] 14/2/2017 08:05

Suprised to see lots of frost this morning, including much of the ground, as the thermometer records a low of +1.3C. It means I'm looking forward to some more sunshine, though. It might help take the edge off the chest infection I've now acquired.

Plenty more poor US results oovernight but no majors. There are too many for me to list. The trend continues to be mixed Q4 reults and generally lower guidance for Q1. So why is the market rising? I don't know but there seems to more speculation about takeover activity about. The next batch of updated quidance for the S&P 500 Q1 earnings will be late on Friday. I no of no similar source of overall market earnings forecasts for the UK.

[blueliner] 13/2/2017 20:26

+0.15% for the Folio.

Investment Trusts were solid today, movers:-only BRWM +1.5% & BRSN -1.6% hit triple digits.

Relentless penetrating easterly wind took the shine off the welcome sun after so much gloom.

[deanforester] 13/2/2017 17:58

A funny day - I'm down -0.004% on the day (FTSE100 +0.278%).

Worst falls: MKS -2.0%, CLLN -1.3% and WMH -1.0%.

Best rises: RIO +3.0%, S32 +1.9% and TW. +1.0%.

Been to a funeral of the widow of a friend this afternoon. It was +8°C with a keen easterly wind and standing outside the crematorium was not the best place to be. However the wake was held at The Old House Inn, to the east of Gatwick and that was very cosy. The catering was excellent.

London Tomorrow morning for an AGM (FCI). Ticket booked, chauffeuse organised.

DF

[mrphil] 13/2/2017 17:01

Afternoon all.

Just back from Cornwall, lovely weekend!

Pleased to see the SIPP managed around +0.3% on the day thanks to BRCI, DX. & AV. and the pot managed +£17 on the day!

Back in full swing tomorrow!

[aleman] 13/2/2017 16:49

Dow Industrial and FTSE100 have very big companies in them. With China booming again after the recent slowdown, it's possible they might not indicate recessions in the UK and US in the near future in terms of earnings, although I think spooked investors might well pull US shares down from excessive ratings levels. Miners are up today on China news - news that could add to inflation and interest rates pressures on Us and UK consumers. China's demands on the global economy might actually be part of what drives us into recession - they can't keep adding 5%+ to global car sales each year while fuel and commodities prices stay subdued.

Claimant Count has been rising slowly in the UK for a year and will likely accelerate in Q1 of 2017 if retail sales, fuel sales, insolvency trends, profit warnings,inflation and interest rates are anything to go by. And that's before hits in March and April that I have previously listed - like energy bills and car tax. I find it hard to believe a recession is not already baked in the cake - although I suppose the £ could always somehow fall to parity with the $ and/or Euro. (I actually think the £ will rise against the Euro as the Euro poitical and financial mess intensifies this year - adding to UK slowdown pressures.)


-0.1% for me, today.

A murky end to the day but lots of sunshine earlier. The 7.4C high felt a world away from recent very miserably grey and cold days, though it's still only average for the time of year, here.

[freddie ferret] 13/2/2017 15:52

I'm still UK optimistic but US?
Poor day for me but attention has been on the 100 IMHO, will it beat the high around New Year?
Dow still pushing ahead.

[aleman] 13/2/2017 15:33

I have an aquaintance who runs an online retail website who has been interested in my predictions of recession but has said over recent months that his business has still been doing well. Today, he accosted me to say he has seen a slowdown in the last few weeks. I didn't have time to get the details but will see him again in future to get more of an idea of what he meant.


US Shoe chain PayLess to close 1000 stores?

[aleman] 13/2/2017 12:05

"The -1.3% drop in footfall across the UK’s bricks and mortar destinations in January may be a sign of tougher things to come in 2017."

[aleman] 13/2/2017 07:47

Morning all. The current 3.6C is the warmest it's been all weekend. Add in endless cold rain and sleet and wind and a complete lack of sunshine and it's been horrible. To make matters worse, all 5 of us have a bad chesty cough. I've now been carrying a cold - or string of colds that have merged together - for 11 weeks. I haven't put in a decent gym performance since November and I've missed about half.

Yet another draw for the Bantams. The League record for draws in a season seems to be 23 and we have reached 15.


There seems to be no significant news for today, as yet. Maybe, I can concentrate on something else, today.

[blueliner] 11/2/2017 09:40

Morning, an unheard of 7/7 in the quiz, for me anyway. Thanks DF.

+0.47% on Friday,

Highest value risers : BRSN +3.3%, IRV +3.5%, GVC +1.4%, BA. +2.2%, with no significant fallers.

+1.77% for the week. Folio YTD +3.99%.
plus my dividend accruals for 4th quarter of tax year.

IPO watch in MoneyWeek reports that Ramsden's shares are expected to float at 86p valuing the company at £26.5M, but this has been overshadowed by Snap's mega IPO .

Temp 1C, light snow, earlier just drizzle, totally miserable to go out in but have full day of crucial sporting fixtures .

Enjoy your w/e .

[aleman] 10/2/2017 21:00

Further to the earlier article, 7 days on and forecasted S&P 500 earnings for Q1 have been further lowered by 0.8% while full year 2017 forecasts are down a further 0.4% (and 2018 -0.3%) ... and the index is even higher at 2318. How long can the S&P index and the forecasted earnings keep going in opposite directions?

[deanforester] 10/2/2017 18:00

I'm up +0.358% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.05%), up +1.61% on teh week (FTSE100 +0.98%) and up +1.59% YTD (FTSE100 +1.62% and HIX +1.30%).

Best rises: RIO +5.6%, BLT +2.4% and BA. +2.0%.

Worst falls: RB. -3.0%, WMH -1.3% and SGRO -1.0%.

The rise in RIO and BLT is very acceptable. The fall is RB. after good results is predictable.

Had a nice pub lunch, scallops with bacon and lime juice, baked in the half shell, with lyonnaise french beans and crushed garlic potatoes. Washed down with a pint of Sunburst, I think from Hammerpot Brewery. Looking at their web site it might have been "Summer". Very nice, whatever it was.



5/7 for me.

Enjoy the weekend and keep warm.

DF

[freddie ferret] 10/2/2017 17:31

On DX. we still have the planning application to produce a result. How the company handles that information will give a steer on how things are IMHO. If the application is positive but the company says it is postponing development due to financial constraints it will say a lot.
DX. is only a small fraction of a fairly diversified portfolio for me, however I hold very few larger companies hence I am more volatile than most.
Overall today was kind to me. Cold here. Tending to be colder in the day than at night, unusual?

[aleman] 10/2/2017 16:48

Hope it breaks a bit sunnier for your trip, MrP.

S&P 500 earnings forecasted for 2017 are ambitious (+11%) but they are slowly being revised down. The MAJORITY of Q1 guidance this year has been adjusted downwards. Meanwhile the index has still been rising (Forward P/E now 17.4 at 2315 versus 10-year average 14.7). One of the two will have to give before long - forecasted earnings will need to rise or the index will have to fall. There is also the common sense argument that the P/E should be lower after a long bull run - say 12. So, to get to sensible value requires a 30% fall to bring the P/E to where it should be even if earnings DO rise 11%, which I think unlikely unless the $ falls. And if recession comes and earnings fall 10-20%? That could be a near 50% fall without a big overshoot. Overshoot could easily take the fall past 50% - but how far?



(Notable reductions in Q1 forecasts since this article are Twitter, Amazon, Coke and Time Warner, amongst many .)

Meanwhile some of the commentary trying to talk earnings up are starting to sound a bit stretched.




+0.2% for me.

Two profit warnings made for a bad week. YTD now -4.5%. Remember 2% of that fall was the cash withdrawn for my tax bill but it's still not a great start to 2017.


Pellet snow this afternoon but didn't really settle. Grey and colder than this morning. 3.5C high in a very brief sunny interlude.

Have a good weekend, all.

[mrphil] 10/2/2017 15:30

Leaving shortly so I'm reporting an hour or so early but I doubt it will change much!

Good week all around, despite disaster with DX. The SIPP managed +0.27% on the week and is now +1.11% YTD, the pot leapt by +1.80% and is positive again for the year at +0.14% and the Virgin ISA managed +0.97% on the week to a YTD of +1.30%

Somebody must have heard I'm on holiday for a couple of days, we had a snow flurry just now!

Enjoy your weekends.

MrP

[mrphil] 10/2/2017 14:52

Washed the car at lunchtime ready for our trip. Will obviously be filthy in no time but it's nice to start out with it gleaming! Only 3°C and very dull while I was doing it, and a bit of dampness in the air.

Aleman, "salaried workers who are given routine pay hikes...." that's pretty frightening!

[aleman] 10/2/2017 13:27

Occasional very light snow flurries here make it damp but a few glimmers of sunshine make it feel better indoors. Outdoors, the breeze now makes it feel colder. We had a touch of frost on the garage roof again.


Just what is the real rate of typical price rises?

[deanforester] 10/2/2017 11:27

Another dull misty, drizzly morning. Just above freezing, but feeling raw.

Good results from Reckitt Benckiser.

Pub lunch soon.

DF

[mrphil] 10/2/2017 09:24

freddie, I continue to hold enough DX. to make a difference if it does recover to the levels we are all hoping, but not enough to do as much damage as it did recently! Even so, it's still managing to be my biggest faller so far today!