Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 03/2/2017 09:41

Good Morning.

A lovely sunny start and very mild @9°C.

The calm before the storm?


GBP Services PMI 54.5 55.8 56.2

[aleman] 03/2/2017 09:34

Did I forecast something , bl? I think I just said I sold out as it was too unpredictable. We still don't know the result until the wind-down is complete. I thought they could have provided more information, though. Communication has been very disappointing. AIM could tighten up rules on that without putting off too many newish companies seeking a listing.


It has to be remembered that one of the reasons Chinese debt levels are so high is because Chinese savings rates are so high. Total Chinese savings are twice as high as the USA in absolute terms at around $30 trillion. Debt is high at 250%+ of GDP but deposits are 180%. Not many articles mention both facts when they discuss China's debt. Besides deposits, Chinese also save a lot as other assets - particularly gold - as they can remember the days when bank savings were in control of old-fashioned communists. I'm not arguing that their system is stable by any means, as I probably do not understand banking any better than anyone else here, but I'd take scaremongering stories that don't mention the high savings rate with a pinch of salt

Despite cautioning about some exaggeration on the Chinese debt front, I'm not optimisitic about high global debt levels and the abililties of the global banking system to handle the next crisis.

[blueliner] 03/2/2017 09:33

Morning

A nice surprise with BEZ results , was not expecting such a good reaction, in fact thought they would go down, have lightened the load somewhat with some profit but still kept my ISA holding intact.

ZMNO -26%, a correct forecast by Aleman.

[shadowside] 03/2/2017 08:35

I think Chinese debt levels and particularly WMC's are the elephant in the room. It's effectively a PONZI scheme on a multi trillion dollar level. I'm not sure what happens when millions of Chinese saving for their old age find their money has gone. Presumably state will have to bail out to avoid revolution but then what? Its a lot of money.

[shadowside] 03/2/2017 08:23

Interesting that both Exxon and Shell results statements concentrate on ability to continue paying dividends because of cash flow rather than stated profits.It's sometimes overlooked just how large depreciation charges are in these capital intensive industries. Exxons depreciation is 18 billion dollars a year. Internally we used to talk of its "Niagara like" cash flow. Normally this gets absorbed in new Capex but clearly the opportunity exists as they are doing now to slash Capex and use to pay dividends. I think analysts have questioned ability to continue paying dividends based on profit rather than cash flow. I wonder what other industries are in similar position. Have not seen a listing of depreciation by company anywhere. Presumably includes utilities,shipping, ?? Food for thought.

[mrphil] 03/2/2017 08:10

Maybe B&Q will need to up their game now.

[aleman] 03/2/2017 08:04

China raised by 0.1% overnight unexpectedly, supposedly to combat soaring corporate debt.

[mrphil] 03/2/2017 07:48

Looks like our old MP is still busy

Mark Hoban, Chair of the IRSG, and former Treasury Minister, said: “The UK is the leading international financial centre and there are clear benefits to the EU in ensuring the UK’s ability to act as a strong financial hub for Europe. The UK Government must negotiate an ambitious deal that maintains the highest degree of access for the UK to the EU and vice versa.

[mrphil] 03/2/2017 07:46

Morning All.

Looks like that could be it for ZMNO then. I kept a few just in case so now need to decide whether to get what I can this morning or wait to see what's left!

"The Zamano Board is focused on conserving the company's strong cash position by optimising our withdrawal from our existing business lines. The on-going regulatory changes in our industry have forced our hand earlier than anticipated. We are hopeful in relation to our strategic discussions, however in the absence of concluding a transaction which shareholders approve, we will focus on how best to return the maximum amount of cash possible to shareholders."

[aleman] 03/2/2017 07:46

There were about 20 US companies issued reduced guidance for Q1 overnight. Amazon actually beat expectations and then still reduced guidance:

[shadowside] 03/2/2017 07:44

freddie. Tend to agree with you. I have an aversion to companies with too much debt. As the old maxim goes " When the tide goes out you can see who's not wearing any swimming trunks".

[freddie ferret] 02/2/2017 19:30

CLLN has to much debt as does DEB IMHO.

[blueliner] 02/2/2017 18:08

+0.32% for today. [FTSE250 +0.10%]

Highest value risers : GVC +6.3%, ASY +7.5%, BRWM +2.2%, LLPC +1.4%, BMS +2.5%.

Worst value fallers : BGO -5.1%, IGR -2.2%.

Stonking good update from GVC, will the rise be sustained though.

Pleasant day, max 12C with road surfaces dried out for the first time this year, windscreen wipers redundant for once.

Had to have a replacement 'entertainment centre' fitted by dealer today, all under warranty. On the way back from garage got off the tram for a Wetherspoons traditional breakfast & coffee at the well known Roebuck Inn St James's Street, a rare treat. Lovely old established city centre pub refurbished building.All for £4.35, can't beat it.

[deanforester] 02/2/2017 18:03

"nettoyer les etables" perhaps?

[shadowside] 02/2/2017 17:59

I wonder what the French for "Drain the swamp" is?

[deanforester] 02/2/2017 17:41

I'm up +0.416% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.466%).

Best rises: RB. +4.1%, CPG +3.0% and WMH +1.9%.

Worst falls: CLLN -1.4%, LGEN -1.2% then AV., BLND, LLOY and MARS, all -0.8%.

Trip down to Holmbush this morning, to make use of my MKS discount vouchers. Mrs DF couldn't find what she wanted, but I got a new blazer which she says I need, a pair of trousers and a couple of shirts. Followed by a carvery over the road at the Royal George. Heavy rain going, but it had stopped by the time we set off home. +7°C first thing, about +9°C at lunchtime.

Do we batten down the hatches for the morning?

DF

[shadowside] 02/2/2017 17:40

Stunning start to your business year Mr P. Congratulations.Maybe different with commercial quality LED's but what I have noticed in the ones I have at home is a tremendous improvement in reliability through time. I was an early adopter and when I started it was not unusual to have a whole batch fail. I now have about 70 of various types and cannot remember the last time one went.Huge improvement over CFL's particularly the instantaneous full light.

Very windy up here but mild. Had an outing to the physio today to look at what I assumed was a slightly pulled hamstring which has been nagging for a few weeks and not improving. Turned out to be a slightly out of place muscle that was pressing on the sciatic nerve. After some prodding it was back in place and pain has gone. Amazing. She certainly has a magic touch.

Read through Brexit White paper. All sounds very sensible and well though out.They clearly have some talent in the Exit EU department. I see the wee scottish lassie is still bleating on about not being consulted. Clearly the 60 MP's she has don't count. She had a vote and yet again lost.

[skinny] 02/2/2017 17:01

My SIPP finished up 0.06%.

A bit more catch up TV tonight.

[mrphil] 02/2/2017 16:57

Similar with my lot, the SIPP was up by about £50 and the pot was down by a similar amount.

Death In Paradise tonight, good lighthearted nonsense!

[mrphil] 02/2/2017 16:51

Not sure if LED will grow the overall market Aleman, but it is certainly killing off all other lamp types resulting in an awful lot of redundant stock throughout the industry - we're written off thousands of pounds worth regularly! The theory was that there could be problems in a few years time if LED's really do last as long as claimed, as there would be no need to replace them with new ones. Of course, in reality, the fittings themselves will still deteriorate and tastes change so people will upgrade anyway.

[aleman] 02/2/2017 16:46

Broadly unchanged again, today, although marginally down over the two days.

After creeping up slowly for a couple of days, we finally got a peak of 10.8C. Te warmth didn't really help as drizzle and wind made it feel cold inside and out.

[aleman] 02/2/2017 15:49

Will LED grow the market? With significantly less electric consumption, it could lead to markedly more outdoor lighting ordered, perhaps.

[mrphil] 02/2/2017 15:43

Retail is a smaller part of our business these days, but actually they often spend more on store upgrades when the going gets tough to try and tempt more customers through the doors. We do a lot more bespoke stuff these days and lots of exterior lighting, but I believe we are seeing the benefit of a lot of hard work on our marketing. Being a tiny fish in a big pond we can nibble away without the big boys noticing! Even if a £1bn market drops 20% there is still a lot of stuff being bought and I'm not after all of it!

[mrphil] 02/2/2017 15:20

Skinny, don't worry, all is good here - order book for January up +52% on last January, turnover up +112%!