Northbridge Industrial S... Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 19/9/2013 13:00

"not in RM sorry to say but the candlestick pattern at 65p coupled with the other indicators/oscillators was very appealing".

hmmmm
maybe one day I should learn something about this candlestick stuff....
chart wise...I read as being a sell at 65p...was looking very weak...
imo if the candlesticks indicated it as a buy...Im surprised...

but then a chart can indicate different things to different viewers/readers....
and so many conditionals from chart readers !!...
"if breaks this price..then that may happen....but if breaks this other then the other"

[woodcutter] 18/9/2013 20:50

S6

not in RM sorry to say but the candlestick pattern at 65p coupled with the other indicators/oscillators was very appealing. A strong revesal signal was there sorry to disappoint you. With hindsight (such a wonderful thing) had i been following RM there was a seriously strong buy indicator at that point when it gapped up between 65p and 70p.

Haven't looked at the fundamentals and have no knowledge of the business so can't comment further.

WC

[smithie6] 18/9/2013 09:21

Woody

candles may be useful for analysis....
but cant beat a bit of insider info....
much easier !!

take RM. for example

shares jumped up yesterday....but news not released till today and up 20% today....

and of course no action will be taken

good ole London Markets
-----

imo a chartist would perhaps have sold RM: at 65p..including candle signal readers...since the graph was terrible....trending down....weak....
although analysts of the numbers (incl you and me) would have bought more if they had cash....and crossed their fingers perhaps !
now it is almost double that price

[smithie6] 17/9/2013 18:47

but
worth noting imo that results in Auz last year showed a large increase...
so it was not just in H1

there are risks with rental.....valid pt.

3 months of the year left to go.....so most of the years results are known to the dirs...since they have good knowledge of orders etc for last 3 months....
and they say they expect to meet expectations.....hopefully they will

which I think is 32p EPS

gonna be peaks and troughs to trading....but long term....NBI keeps expanding globally...adding Japan and China in recent times...and Asia generally..and I think direct selling in USA as well as via agent...
and Middle East is declared as picking up...

over time....more income streams....which should to a degree reduce risk of effects of 1 large contract ending as you mention...but I see/agree with your point...

in last few years H2 is stronger than H1......

they also mention work related to coal bed gas ....
----

capital investment is expected to be higher in H2....not sure if refers to the acquisition....so ...the dirs. think they can rent out equipment imo...

[pyemckay] 17/9/2013 13:51

remember there is a large contract that has just finished in australia and this boosted the h1 results. The units are sitting on the shelf awaiting rental. Unless a large contract is announced, I am doubtful if the operations in australia will contribute as much. worth considering imo.
Valuation is pretty much up with events now.

[smithie6] 17/9/2013 10:18

in last annual results
" Operating cash flow up 76% to GBP8.4 million"

15,6M shares
approx. 54p op. cashflow per share

and acquisition produces 1.7M (20%) 15.6+ 1,6M shares. 17.2M
---

and H1 was up 1/2M on prior year...so if H2 was identical then one assumes a op. cashflow or approx. 8.4 + 0,5.....ie. 8.9M....but rental fleet size at cost is up again....2.4M I think....10% ..perhaps another 1/2M of cashflow....so 9.4M

and then add 1.7M....gives 11.1M once acquisition feeds into full 12 month accounts...(wont happen till next years results...only 6 month contribution this year)

64,5p of op. cashflow
----

these rough calcs. show the possibility that op. cashflow may increase from
54p per share

to 64,5p per share

18% increase

VERY GOOD...if it is achieved

due to
- increase in the size of the rental fleet due to re-investing profits
- greater op. cashflow of the acquisition per share than of NBI....ie. it is enhancing



If any mistakes in these rough calcs. ...dont blame me !!
(of course various assumptions are made....such as business ratios being roughly the same as previously reported....)

[smithie6] 16/9/2013 18:26

btw

cash generated per share (ie. esp. before depreciation) for the acquisition is approx. double that for NBI shares....

acq. provides 20% of original NBI cashflow....while increase in number of shares is 10%, ie. for cashflow it is a noticeably enhancing acquisition....

while the PBT per share and other ratios per share seem to be similar to those for NBI


----

I havent sussed out how the PBT ratio is not noticeably enhancing like the cashflow is....

...one assumes that deprec. amortisation or interest cost or ?..... is hitting the numbers between cashflow and PBT....
any views ?

[countryman5] 16/9/2013 13:48

Expect positive I C comment on friday

[smithie6] 16/9/2013 13:16

another interesting factor...imo...
is that rental equipment increased by fair amount in H1
and will do further due to the acquisition....although funded by new shares

and they have said that rental equipment will increase further in H2

so
NBI is growing its rental fleet by fairly large % imo over last 18 months...and in next 6 months.

I havent churned the numbers....but I assume that the acquisition is enhancing for NBI in terms of PBT/share and cashflow per share ...after taking into account the new shares....(only around 10% more shares)

gearing fell in H1 as cash arrived.....and falls further due to the acquisition and new shares ...and will do further due to the profit cash arriving in H2...so NBI has imo financial room to do other deals if it wants in H2...or invest in more rental kit if it has customers for it...

[woodcutter] 16/9/2013 08:09

cnx............couldn't you sleep...........;-)

[cnx] 16/9/2013 03:05

woodcutter, thanks yours above
sharescope are showing

eps dec12 22.28 dec13 32.61 dec14 36.76 dec15 39.27

t/o dec12 30.81 dec13 36.99 dec14 39.97 dec15 44.15

profit dec12 4.88 dec13 6.55 dec14 7.34 dec15 7.99


so we have near agreement amongst the consensus!

[woodcutter] 15/9/2013 20:23

i've spent a bit of time today looking at the operational gearing of NBI based on the H1 results and some interesting numbers come out of the analysis.

The gross margin fell from 57% to 53% when compared to last years H1 and full year H2 results so i'll use 53% going forward.

Revenue increased 31% H1 this year compared to H1 last year but the administration/distrubtion costs only increased 12.6%. So extrapolation of this through to full year and using last years total revenue as a base gives:

Revenue £40.4m....................31% increase on H2 last time
Gross Profit @ 53% £21.4m
Admin/distr. £13.6m...............12.6% increase on H2
op profit £7.8m
take out finance pbt £7.5m
pat £5.6m
shares in issue 17.2m
eps 33p

last years eps was 24p so the interesting point is that for a 30% increase in sales we almost get a 50% increase in eps. Demonstrates excellent control of o/heads aimho.

would be nice to see GM get back to 57% i but guess it's a funtion of the product mix. There's not much room for manoeuvre here against forecast so a small slow down in sales although not overly significant due to the gearing may result in a fall in eps against forecast.

digital look forecast
sales £37.08m
pbt £6.37
eps 31.38p

looks about right to me.

Woody

[topvest] 13/9/2013 20:33

Good results today and very pleasing that they have done another sensible acquisition using paper when the share price is reasonable. The strategy is working!

[smithie6] 13/9/2013 16:20

btw
for anyone that invested at the float...at 100p/share
around 7 years ago...

todays rise was 17% return on that investment....very good

[smithie6] 13/9/2013 16:16

been busy today...
nice to see the data for the day and that the share price has just kept rising today...
so the mkt is happy with the 2 RNSs today.

(of course...basically....step up in cash generated....produces a step up in cash spent on new rental equipment or acquisitions with rental equipt......hopefully producing an increase in profit.....which allows a step up in cash spent on new rental equipt. or.....

and so on.......

increasing the turnover and profit per share ...over time...

of course, relies on decent trading and rental kit being rented out and not sitting idle...

[nurdin] 13/9/2013 10:35

Yes I am still long...well pleased with the results today .On track to meet full year estimates they say...so can expect eps of around 30p....

[smithie6] 13/9/2013 10:27

"We have been looking to acquire CAP for a considerable time and the outcome today is an important development for Northbridge, significantly increasing our presence in the all-important Asia Pacific market."

cash generation of acquisition....1.7M pnds !!

noticeable/significant % of NBI cash generation

and sizeable increase in rental fleet size

while cost of HQ and dirs. and listing stays about the same....hence reducing % of total profit...

-----

baby baby

Nurdin...if you still got that long position....Id consider hanging on....looks like more to come imo...

[smithie6] 13/9/2013 10:20

"We expect to see continued strong cash flow during the second half of 2013 ensuring further reductions in net gearing."

soldier boy...u out there...good day for u if you are still holding...
my biggest holding....so I am very happy with this RNS

...if you check my posts....
exactly as I wrote/explained..I think !..ref. incoming profits cash reducing the gearing....

nice to be right "sometimes"...

[smithie6] 13/9/2013 10:17

bloomin eck !!

not read in detail....but looks to be above my hopes...
sp is up...so above the mkts as well...

"Group revenue up 31% to GBP18.6 million (2012: GBP14.2 million)
-- Gross profit up 25% to GBP9.9 million (2012: GBP8.0 million)
-- Operating profit up 70% to GBP2.8 million (2012: GBP1.7 million)
-- Strong cash generation from operations of GBP5.2 million (2012: GBP4.7 million) "



well done to the directors and mangers and workers....

...dir. salaries are very fair.....options are very fair......
and performance is great
if only the rest of AIM was the same !!

[woodcutter] 13/9/2013 09:16

mixed bag i think. Not sure what to make of it, good results H1 but doesn't look so strong going forward. Acquisistion looks a good move though.

Historic H1/H2 results are not consistant so it's not possible to predict how H2 might develop. With more capex expected and slower growth in oil tool hire H2 eps might be at risk. And with the additional institution fund raising at 395p there's a temptation to sell take profit and come back later.

The downside to that is you might not get back in at the right time and miss the inevitable future growth. The business is expanding and continuing to grow so i guess any short term share price drop should be viewed against the longer term prospects. So i retain my holding for now and may be tempted to top up on any weakness below 395p, TA permitting.

Surprised it's risen this morning

Woody