Northbridge Industrial S... Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 02/8/2013 20:29

If you mean little fish - I suppose I might be. But I do have 270 stocks built from zero. So, I am quite happy, thanks. I do have a day job. Try not to have more than £5k in each! It's called diversification.

[countryman5] 02/8/2013 16:38

Topvest may only be a little fish but I think, or he thinks, that he is a very important fish. I note his postings on other sites where WSE has an interest.

[smithie6] 02/8/2013 15:17

just had a look at dirs. buys....

chairman exercised around 100k via options....if from the start then maybe 100-150p exercise price...
and bt. 100k at 326p when another dir. sold...326k pnds.
400-500k pnds worth all together...

one of the biggest bod member buys at any co. with cap. value under 70M imo...
so...fingers crossed...in the medium/longer term...hopefully the NBI story has more to go...

[smithie6] 02/8/2013 15:10

Lance Corporal
BTW ...is the posting name made up or real ?

(one of the most inventive names Ive seen is "Brummie Git"...thought that was original...)

[smithie6] 02/8/2013 15:04

..thankfully no photo !

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Topvest

1.20 to 4....cant argue with that...nice one...
if the sale of say 700 shares was yours....(biggest sales of the day)
2.8k pnds
does that mean that you are only a little fish then ?!

[lance corporal winstanley ash] 02/8/2013 14:09

smithy, revenue is set to double over the next 3 years mucker. this aint staying at 405. more like 505. i am balls deep

[topvest] 02/8/2013 11:48

Taken half of mine off the table at a very good profit versus the £1.20 or so buy-in price. The rest are now free carry and so will keep for the longer term. £4 was too good to miss as an opportunity to reduce risk as I have lots of WSE as well.

[smithie6] 02/8/2013 11:46

I see you are on the ball !!

...maybe take a gander at the RNS from a few days ago



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Personally I expect the share price to stay at 400-405p till results....and then depends on results ...maybe go sideways until approach finals...and then if news is OK....perhaps people will then start looking 1 year ahead....but ahead at present is this years results..

[lance corporal winstanley ash] 02/8/2013 09:03

when are the h1 results due?

[smithie6] 01/8/2013 16:44

eh ?

double ?

where do you get that from ?......or you mean over X years ?

if it was the case then the co. would need to have revealed that...and they havent...so I dont think so...
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hoping that co. broker may upgrade is estimates...and maybe other brokers....
but maybe they will want clients to have chance to buy in before releasing any upgrade to rest of the world....and perhaps already in the price anyway...

just a case of waiting now till the H1 results are produced imo...
surely the share price must have about finished its run up....and that priced in good H1 results.....and after H1 results then start estimating for H2..

[lance corporal winstanley ash] 01/8/2013 15:02

Smithy. Revenue expected to almost double. I would say the share price has a way to climb yet.

[smithie6] 01/8/2013 13:26

hmmmmm
sell price moved up to 403p....so far no sellers to supply the demand, small demand but still some even after largish % price rise..

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Edit
or maybe the 2 x 403p trades were a bed and breakfast trade......if found a MM willing to trade without taking a cut !

[lance corporal winstanley ash] 31/7/2013 13:00

Looking good for 440

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 22:31

Any opinions on the trade of 20k shares at 395p ?

almost 80k pounds.
much more than normal total daily volume for buys...

looked like a buy

so
personally I cant understand why the MM took the trade....at the mkt price to buy at that moment...then marked price up 5p...
normally imo for such a large volume there would have been a premium to pay for the trade, perhaps 5-10p

if the MM didnt have the stock then hes surely out on a limb if the price goes higher and he cant get the 20K shares at similar price to match/supply the trade

and if he only gets shares at 395p during the next few days...to balance the trade...then he makes no profit...but takes a risk..and MMs normally try to avoid not making a profit !

are there more trades on ISDX ?...did the MM pick up the shares to balance the trade from ISDX trades ?...I havent been able to access any trade info there...

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 22:23

ref. someones post on spend on new equipment....and debt levels...

if make 32p then the co. could keep the bank debt level the same...and still spend approx. 3-3.5M on new equipment to equal depreciation...and approx. 4M from PAT generated and after divi of approx. 1M (PAT = 5M if achieve 32p, 5-1 = 4))

so approx. 7.5M on new equipment

..."without" increasing bank debt...
...if that new equipment then produces a good return then EPS goes up
...if not hired out...then not so good !

and that would be a considerable % of the current value of rental equipment...creating the chance to produce a noticeable increase in rental income, if rented out... (compare with only increasing rental fleet by 1%....no impact on rental income)

(another alternative is to make an acquisition, if a good one is available, for 7.5M +/- X.......and increase turnover-profit that way...using self generated cash...)

and....at the same time...the debt ratio would be reducing...since profit would be going up (assuming increasing kit is rented out)...so fixed bank debt relative to increasing profit, ie. reducing ratio, normally makes banks and institutions relaxed......

(classic organic growth...and compounding...not gteed. but has been working for NBI for last few years....)

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 12:50

Orb1t
your good spot on expectations

May AGM RNS was that currently expected that would achieve "mkt" expectations

new RNS is achieve "dirs." expectations...infers imo an increase in expectation...

(crazy that one needs to spot words.....the expectation should be stated imo in numbers....as done imo in the USA)

...some brokers more awake than us may have noticed that...and have caused some of the recent buys...

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 12:42

100p to 400p from 2006 to 2013
imo that is

21.9 % annual Compound GR

(in fact higher % since doesnt include the divi paid)

very good

( to keep growth rate high..(noting that the MD has share options for around 500k shares...and with global operations and changes, he clearly aint scared of having a go !...he gains if the EPS rises)..imo they will keep the debt to equity ratio similar to what it is now......which infers a total debt that increases as the co. turnover and profit increases...)

(if the co. ever moves to sharply reduce the debt ratio...by not spending on new equipt. or new acquisitions..then take cover since the EPS growth rate is likely to reduce....and it will infer imo that their margins have reduced (since not so keen to borrow money at X% and get a return of Y % from it and make the difference as profit, if X =Y then not profitable to borrow more money)...which would hit the EPS)

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 12:29

29p broker expectation....

perhaps they will update it now.....

I calculated 27p last year ..if treat the move to Singapore for some managers as a one off....600k (450k to profit if 25% tax)...so 29p would only be marginally up...and H1 is substantially ahead...
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dirs. vs mkt expectation......well spotted...
perhaps infers that dirs. think the mkt. expectation is now too low...infers it will be upgraded....
the hs. broker may want to put its clients in first !!

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 12:26

imo it doesnt say that debt amount is coming down....

(debt ratio is wrt to profits I think....if profits up then ratio down....and vice versa.....even if debt stays the same....(for debt to stay the same, they would have to be spending/investing the profit !))

(they spent a lot last year ...8M....they naturally wanted to inform big shareholders and mkt that that big investment was working...if not then a problem.....)

(in accounts they often say that accounts could cope with more bank debt.....ie. they are happy to increase if they see good use of the money...)

imo they will keep investing over time....in hire fleet or acquisitions (including hire fleet)...as they have done since 2006
in H1 one its own...they may slack off on buying new equipt. since invested a lot last year.....or may keep investing if they think they can hire it out....or maybe let cash build a little to help an acquisition in H2 (from Singapore base.....spent loads to move there last year)


but also....chairman bt shares...lots...

[0rb1t] 30/7/2013 11:55

NBI are probably fair value at the moment. It's interesting that they say Director's Expectations and not market expectations. Westhouse their house broker are forecasting 29p eps for this year whereas the market consensus is higher.

The fact that debt is coming down could point to the fact that they don't at the moment see any value in investing in more hire fleet.

They state that the drilling tools is challenging and this contributes about 50% of profits. Manufacturing side is doing well but this is on lower margins than rental turnover.

Also a few months ago some of the directors sold some shares at 370p. So it points to the fact that H2 could be slower this year than last year. So a PE of about 12/13 is probably about right.

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 11:48

stevemarkus
..."overegging it"
btw...I agreed with Woody....that the share price seemed to be fully or fairly priced...

and that needed to see actual H1 numbers in black and white
(but that few sellers over recent weeks....and people still buying some....so price goes up....)

Floated at 100p in 2006....400p now . 7 years

and due to growth...not due to a crazy internet P/E

Large gain
good years and not so good....but its getting there...as turnover etc keeps being grown by the bod...
perhaps best not to analyse the EPS in too great a detail..it will go from expensive to cheap in different years....and as long as keeps going in right direction to sit back, shares in a drawer and wait X years...

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 11:40

First 400p trade has gone through !!

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 11:25

good point

but
imo the RNS includes various words that point to forecast H2 being OK and that expect to meet dirs. expectations...while noting that H2 is yet to happen...so not in the bag yet


"The ongoing investment in our global hire fleet has resulted in good rental revenue....

....that will continue into the second half of 2013. Sales and orders for manufactured units have continued to remain buoyant during the first six months and provide good visibility for the second half of 2013. Our drilling tools, testing and commissioning activities continue to perform well in a challenging environment, and we remain confident in the Group's prospects.

A forecast satisfactory second half year performance will achieve results for 2013 as a whole which should be in line with Directors' expectations".

and...if I recall correctly....the part that continues to perform well....is the part that the co. put 5-8M of more kit into last year....and it says that it is being hired out and producing profits...

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imo while the RNS does include proviso words like "forecast" "visibility"

one could not ask for a better RNS imo

and as a result, despite the P/E now being 17 on historic EPS.....the share price has been strong.....as the mkt is expecting the next H1 and annual EPS to be a good bit higher
(if achieve 34p then P/E is 12 for share price of 400p...not expensive imo...
especially due to the possibility that the co. may go and produce another step in profits next year, by making an acquisition partly by re-investing profits or expanding its hire fleet again, if suitable)...

[stevemarkus] 30/7/2013 10:53

When considering 'substantially ahead' it's worth remembering that H1 last year was not especially stunning and the company said that results would be significantly weighted towards H2, which indeed they were. So yes, it's good terminology, but not that good! And yes, I still hold, so pleased with the move, but I am wary of overegging it.

Cheers,
Steve.