Non-standard Finance Share Discussion Threads

[milliecusto] 30/4/2020 21:02

Might be a plan, buts it actually lifting, your previous post are very amateurish on financials

[grapevinefriend] 30/4/2020 18:12

The Gov are to set out a "comprehensive" plan to start lifting restrictions next week. This will be a massive boost to NSF and it's three divisions.

Good luck trying to get in at the previous lows. 20p next week?

[eentweedrie] 30/4/2020 17:38

Yep - should we 2p tomorrow

[milliecusto] 30/4/2020 17:15

No way back to 30p, double topped at 32p with no Covid, with the lockdown expected to continue, will retest recent lows, before rebounding

[grapevinefriend] 30/4/2020 15:51

We must be due a holdings RNS with the volume recently.

Im guessing these sells are the remnants of the Woodford holdings & I'm plumping it will be gone shortly, back to 25p/30p in a jiffy

[basem1] 30/4/2020 15:13

Sorry wrong board

[basem1] 30/4/2020 15:13

Berenberg It is one guys opinion He may as well be a bb poster In fact he's probably not as qualified as most bb posters

[knowing] 30/4/2020 14:57

Same happening at AMGO. Need to clear the seller here for the next move

[galeforce1] 30/4/2020 11:14

There's a big jump at International Personal Finance (IPF today. Up 30% on a positive trading statement.

I don't know much about IPF, but at a glance it seems to have quite alot in common with NSF. It's bigger, it's on the main market and it's international. But basically it's involved in the same business which is unsecured personal lending.

It looks as thoug IPF is doing much the same as NSF - beibg cautious, focusing on collections, etc.

[cokehookerscars] 30/4/2020 09:57

Not good news for lenders

[grapevinefriend] 29/4/2020 22:56

Dividend has been cancelled to preserve cash & BoD don't want to be seen paying shareholders whilst calling on gov cash to furlough staff.

Dividend would have been 3p, ie a yield of 22.2% with the share price at 13.5p. Won't be surprised if we still get a chunk of that 3p later in the year.

[ny boy] 29/4/2020 22:41

Reason for some selling today, investors switching into the big caps, investors piling into the likes of BP,VOD,BARC,ASC,CNA etc Markets are in rally mode now, another strong close in the US bodes well for rest of week.

As I am invested from 8p here, not bothered if it goes up or down a few pence every so often, just so long as the trend is up.

Will check back in later next month to look in on progress.

[cokehookerscars] 29/4/2020 22:33

I thought I recalled it was being halted. Cheers Moormoney.
Jumping around too many companies and losing track !

[cokehookerscars] 29/4/2020 22:32

Anyone expecting some regulation of the lending market as this crisis goes on ?
Could see lenders forced to give longer payment holidays, even slash interest rates. I doubt forced write offs of debt though.

I am long NSF and not interested in ramping or de-ramping, just information and people's opinions, especially of those familiar with the industry.

Unfortunately got into this company at 26 and 22. Have averaged down but wish I'd put all the money in at my lowest buy of 9.7p.

[moormoney] 29/4/2020 22:31

I think the dividend has been withdrawn this year because of the pandemic to strengthen the business.

[cokehookerscars] 29/4/2020 22:28

Are NSF paying the full dividend this year? I can't recall ?

Surely the dividend yield is higher than 11.1% if NSF will be paying out more this year. Had 1.7 earlier.

[cokehookerscars] 29/4/2020 22:26

Got the full report ?
Cheers.

[galaxy enforcer] 29/4/2020 12:14

This was taken from January. Yes things have changed due to factors out of the companies control but look at the potential.



Non-Standard Finance
Sunshine after the rain
17 JAN 2020 / CORPORATE RESEARCH
By Mark Thomas
DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT
“The focus for the next few years is on relatively modest investment and on driving return on assets towards our medium-term target of 20% for each division”. So said John van Kuffeler at the 16 January 2020 capital markets day. After an eventful 2019, 2020 (and beyond) is now all about operational delivery, the “boring” grinding out of profit from a franchise that has seen heavy investment over many years. We welcome this focus and think it will help deliver the 84% EPS growth (2021 on 2018) in current consensus estimates. The accompanying trading statement indicated 2019 results would be in line with market expectations. The shares rose 15% on the day.

Trading update: The branch-based lending business’ (ELL) net loan book grew 17% and the guarantor loan division (GLD) book by 29% vs. end-2018. Home Collected Credit (HCC) saw a small fall. Impairments were 22.4% of revenue in ELL, 22.6% in GLD and 27% in HCC. Progress has been made on a cheaper, six-year, securitisation line that is expected to be £150m-£200m in size.
Capital Markets Day: The presentation focused on the good current trading conditions and how the group will operationally deliver profit growth. NSF emphasised that the franchise build was largely complete and now the focus can be on delivering profit growth. The company’s focus on developing the right culture to underpin long-term success was also underlined.
Valuation: Our absolute approaches now indicate a range of 79p-85p. At the current price, the 2020 prospective P/E is 4.4x for a business whose impairment provisioning already reflects a significant downside scenario and where earnings could nearly double over three years. The yield is also double-digit.
Risks: Credit risk is the biggest threat to profitability. NSF’s model accepts more credit risk, where a higher yield justifies it. NSF is innovative, and may incur losses piloting products, distribution and customers. Regulation is a market issue; management is acting to mitigate this risk.
Investment summary: Substantial value should be created, as: i) competitors have withdrawn; ii) NSF is well-funded, with committed debt funding to 2023; iii) macro drivers are positive; and iv) NSF’s experienced management delivers operational efficiency without compromising the key face-to-face model. Management targets of strong loan book growth and 20% EBIT RoA appears credible. Plus, investors are paying 6.6x 2019E P/E and getting a 11.1% yield.

[ayl30] 29/4/2020 07:30

Increased my holding yesterday, their services will sadly be in great demand

[knowing] 29/4/2020 00:35

People may be holding back here due to social distancing however this will be relaxed in a matter of weeks. I then expect that we will see a major push higher and will be accumulating on the way up.

[grapevinefriend] 28/4/2020 18:43

Interesting to see the majority of trades are off book. Someone desperate to sell & someone desperate to buy. I can see this moving rapidly once the entire holding has been moved on. Get in sub 25p while you still can folks.

[galaxy enforcer] 28/4/2020 14:41

Well I think if the market capitalisation get's over £50M we could start to see interest from Institutions as it will drop onto their radar. When they cast their eye's over the books then there could be a rush to grab stock on the cheap.

W1NDJAMMER very valid point on the dividend.

[w1ndjammer] 28/4/2020 10:44

when things get back to normal i will be looking at a 25% dividend over here

thats double what i get off any of my properties...

WJ.

[grapevinefriend] 28/4/2020 10:03

Not many more companies safer than NSF with its huge cash pile and large number of potential new customers coming it's way.

24p is too pessimistic, I won't accept a penny less than 45p. This was 30p and climbing back to the 40s pre CV.

[ny boy] 28/4/2020 09:26

Many PI’s have already sold out, I’m staying in until x3 so exit point 24p
Will put the funds into more blue chip stocks for safety, reducing overall risk.