Nexxen Share Discussion Threads

[tapa7] 23/10/2024 21:56

Sorry I totally missed your questions.

Good points about Nexxen:

- Valuation
- FCF capabilities
- Potential industry tailwinds (Google)

Bad points

- Management

A reminder that I was the FIRST in this thread (or the one before) to inform every investor here about the google adtech antitrust, with dates, and bull case scenario for Nexxen.
At the moment we are just small fish but if Google is forced to divest the exchange or the SSP we will be one of a very limited selection of adtech providers offering an horizontally connected platform (ssp - exchange - dsp), the opportunity is multi fold if a ruling comes against Google and we seize the moment, I mean you just put the company in auto pilot by then and it will be win after win.

I'll post a link to a report from a well known fund who came to the same conclusion.

[tapa7] 23/10/2024 21:51

Tractor,

I know my posts have been on the pessimist side, let me be clear, I do like Nexxen as a stock, I hold a big position in it, I think it is super undervalued, I have even met with their IR 3 times to build my confidence up, one of which I posted a summary here, remember?

Look, I am always going to be controversial, I also own shares of both Nexxen and its competitors, that's how I diversify my portfolio, that's why I know first hand everything of what's up in the adtech sector including partnerships and new revenue streams launched by Nexxen's peers.

Given that this is a thread where you're supposed to discuss exactly that, the goods and the bads of Nexxen, that's all I am doing. I appreciate some are more sensitive to such information but would you rather know what the peers are doing and Nexxen is not or do you just enjoy to invest blindly?

As I said, there's always the option to ignore my posts. We are on the same boat, we both want Nexxen to succeed, I am just a bit more demanding that's all.

[gadgie2] 23/10/2024 14:24

MGNI didn't get this though did they !

The United fleet, the company said, has nearly 100,000 seatback screens, each offering a potential for nearly 3.5 hours of advertising exposure per flight, based on average flight time.
The United app has nearly 100 million user sessions per month.

[tractorhead] 23/10/2024 14:08

Tapa7 you don't seem to have anything good to say about Nexxen. Pray, why don't you sell up and go put your money into other companies that you maybe like - for example Mgni?

If you are staying invested here can you explain why? I guess it must be because you see SOMETHING good in Nexxen? You might say because the price is low. But why would it recover at all if the company is doing so badly? Can you give us some good points that you see about Nexxen?

Thanks!

[tapa7] 23/10/2024 13:18

Talking about partnerships that nexxen misses out on, mgni and disney renewed theirs for another 2 solid years today. Another 2 years of mgni grabbing ctv marketshare from their competitors, especially next year as it ramps up their netflix partnership too.

[midasx] 23/10/2024 07:01

Carrying out the buyback at the same time as an institutional drawdown could be a complete coincidence. It does however allow the buyback to be carried out without completely spiking the share price.

Over 32% of existing shares now held in dormant or non-voting form! The Boom! when it comes will be catalysed by the number of buyback shares purchased.

All we need is for the potential positives to come to fruition!

[tractorhead] 22/10/2024 09:27

Trading so painfully slow every morning. Just gets stuck. Ignored.

Fortunately buy back kicks in at some stage.

But if Tosca really selling into this... then price is not going to go anywhere fast. Is it legal for a company to be facilitating II sale if that is what they are doing?

I guess the company is removing a bunch of shares at a decent price so long term this could help. But jeez... I look forward to when we re-rate to a fairer price level and we can feel truly safe for the long term. Some anxiety still lingers after so many years of roller coaster.

[tapa7] 22/10/2024 08:53

Gadgie,

I can set up a lemonade stand in Beverly Hills and have Elon Musk as my customer, that doesn't speak about my competitive edge, moat or business size.

[tapa7] 22/10/2024 08:42

It's an undervalued business that was last year priced up for bankruptcy despite being
extremely profitable and that's why I got in as did many others. There's definitely money to be made with the current valuation and the return this year has proved that.

But a good business like Nexxen has room to excel even further and I have pointed out how I think that could happen.

I wouldn't expect any less if others invested disagreed or wanted to challenge my views, that's only fair, but the multiples at which the stock trades Vs peers speaks volumes about what's left to do.

There's always the choice to ignore contrarian views/posts. I don't post much anyway so that helps.

Barkboo, not sure if there was a question to me but it sounds like you're talking about someone else.

[midasx] 22/10/2024 08:15

I would completely agree Barky 👍

[gadgie2] 22/10/2024 07:44

small fish lol .... Vevo alone 25 Billion views per month

[barkbooo] 22/10/2024 07:44

Midas - I believe Tapa to be a player that has visited this stock on more than one occasion with various names. I believe the guy to be a trader that always works his position.

He never gets involved but has an uncanny knack of twisting a negative when playing the stock.

He’s not loud or aggressive, plays the charm offensive - but one to take with a pinch of salt imo.

No offence Tapa.

[midasx] 22/10/2024 06:58

So why have you not sold up and moved on Tapa7? You obviously have no faith in the company or the board?

[tapa7] 21/10/2024 13:40

Your thoughts are exactly in line with what I have been trying to tell gadgie and whites the other day.

People need to understand that nexxen operates in an industry gap that is exploited by some small fish and we are just one of them. Everyday those guys at Nexxen go after the dollars of some advertisers who don't want to rely solely on ttd, google ads and fb ads but this is a very small pie of the adtech TAM.

The only way we will survive as the small fish we are is if we start putting our profitable dollars to work and innovating our platform and offering new solutions that other small fish cannot offer, one way of doing it is by undercutting them and the advantadge of being a small fish is that we are never going to get hit with antitrust trials.

Google's adtech trial decision is expected next year, they'll lose for sure, fast forward to 2026/27 they'll have lost all the appeals and be forced to divest either the exchange or the SSP (or even DSP) and there's going to be a lot of business up for grabs and we are just not planning ahead. We are spending 100s of millions in buybacks instead of technology.
There's even rumours that any punitive decisions may also affect TTD due to the billions of dollars it does in similar business practices and they too won't be allowed to operate in all 3 fronts.

I love buybacks but doing them in a small company that is struggling to keep up with the industry CAGR and which continuously posts subpar numbers, it's just poor capital allocation.

[john09] 21/10/2024 13:37

Karmala expected to lose

Hoe she gets spending that $1bn advertising budget fast

[tractorhead] 21/10/2024 13:27

I have always been worried a big tech would come and steal the show. I appreciate Paypal will be limited to data from those using paypal... but is there a risk we have taken too long to get our full stack up and running and get good data? Have we missed the boat? So long promising... I really hope Nexxen finally becomes a serious player in the adtech space. Jeez, just give us a fraction of The Trade Desk valuation. Will it EVER happen?

[tapa7] 21/10/2024 13:10

I should have said that it was expected to be ready for launch next year but it was rolled out last week or so, just in prep for the upcoming holiday season.
Paypal is also on a huge dip if you look at the graph but yet with record profits and an historically low valuation.
Make what you will out of it

[gadgie2] 21/10/2024 11:58

Ad viewership continues to grow in the US and Europe with total ad views up +11 per cent year-over-year (YOY), +8 per cent and +29 per cent respectively. The findings mark almost a decade of double-digit growth in ad views in Europe, coinciding with viewers embracing the expanding and flexible offerings of digital and streaming platforms, including live video content.

Connected TV (CTV) has seen a +31 per cent increase in ad views in Europe compared to the same period in 2023, and it is now the primary device (46 per cent) through which viewers watch ad-supported content in the region. CTV continues its dominance in the US, capturing 83 per cent of ad views in H1 2024. The analysis highlights the prominence of the large screen in ad-supported premium video environments.

Audience targeting has increased by double digits in the US (+39 per cent) and Europe (+23 per cent) compared to the first half of last year, as media companies increasingly leverage first-party data and advanced targeting capabilities to reach intended viewers. This trend is expected to continue in light of the growing complexity in the privacy landscape.

Both regions recorded overall growth in programmatic ad views, +15 per cent in the US and an outstanding +41 per cent in Europe. Regional differences were more apparent at device level with CTV accounting for 87 per cent of programmatic ad views in the US versus 28 per cent in Europe. There’s scope for growth for this type of transaction in Europe, particularly as CTV continues to grow.

Live content represents an opportunity for advertisers and publishers to connect with large simultaneous audiences in both regions. Live ad-supported content captured 54 per cent of ad views in the US in H1 2024; figures are lower in Europe (22 per cent) but have grown from 18 per cent for the same period last year. With the recent streaming successes from large sports events, live in Europe is likely to show an upward trend moving forward.

[barkbooo] 20/10/2024 20:57

Disclosure:
BARKBOO/BARKBOOO
Member since: 28 Dec 2004

[wheeze] 19/10/2024 19:40

Thanks Ragos, relatively tiny holdings for institutions nevertheless cumulatively significant. I'm guessing you have a lot more skin in the game, as do many on this board

[ragos] 19/10/2024 16:39

If you look to the other side of the pond, quite a few new holders.
These have been serviced by the banks buying here for ads. Haven't done the numbers but sounds a lot.
Again Yahoo/nexxen/holders shows you the holdings.

R

[wheeze] 19/10/2024 14:59

Very credible- thanks

[1gw] 19/10/2024 14:33

I think the current buyback took about 1/4 of total uk volume in its first 5 months. But a lot of that volume may be relatively short-term trading (eg retail tip-driven or institutional) or longer-term investors (not major holders) adjusting portfolios.

The point is that 10m shares sold in aggregate by Toscafund, Mithaq and management have been more than covered by the buyback volumes. That leaves say 5m of buyback volume not supplied by those 3 groups - and the shareprice has increased by around 50% this year (so the buyback net of those 3 sellers could be at least partly responsible for the price increase). But there could well be another relatively large seller in there (News Corp for example hasn't announced going over 6% has it, which I think I would have expected it to do if it hadn't been selling given the buyback)?