Nexxen Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 19/10/2024 11:17

Just for context then on Toscafund, from my records:

Just after the RhythmOne-Taptica merger (1st April 2019) they had around 16% (21m shares)

They increased to 22% (28m shares) following the Tal/Levy placing

They went up to a high of 24% and 32m shares in early 2021.

They were back down to 16.5% (24m shares) at end-2023.

They are now just under 12% (16m shares).

So big picture they have halved their holding (24%/32m shares down to 12%/16m shares) between 2nd February 2021 and now. The shares in issue were about the same (134m shares) at the two dates (lots of issuance, lots of buybacks between the 2 dates).

During 2024 they have been reducing share through sales a lot faster than they have been increasing share through the buyback.

[tractorhead] 19/10/2024 10:56

Thanks white and muth for your comments on Tosca. Points taken and appreciated.

[muthadrucker] 19/10/2024 10:35

Should remember Tosca have been here for 10 years back in the Richard Griffiths days and not so long ago we’re buying loads at £1.20 to get the crooked Taptica founder off the books. No one else was prepared to step up back then and owning nearly 30% of Tremor in those days was a huge exposure. Therefore seems a bit churlish to criticise them for selling today

[whites123] 19/10/2024 10:22

Toscafund, despite undergoing restructuring and selling some of its holdings in Nexxen, actually owns a greater percentage of the company due to Nexxen's share buyback program.

This situation is not negative for either party. By selling while increasing their percentage ownership, Toscafund signals confidence in Nexxen, supporting the company’s stability without positioning itself to hold too many shares, which could lead to undesirable concentration risk.

Additionally, their strategy allows Nexxen’s buyback to proceed smoothly without causing massive price spikes.
If Toscafund hadn't sold, they might have had to offload shares later to maintain compliance with ownership limits, potentially leading to a share price crash. This careful balance of selling and increasing percentage ownership supports both Toscafund's restructuring goals and Nexxen's stock value.

Glass half full or Glass half empty.
There will always be commentators that know better, and this board has plenty of them, including myself.
But the only similar trait between us is that we must believe the share price will improve lest why would we be here?

[1gw] 19/10/2024 09:20

And for the UK, Investors Chronicle says there are 3 analysts giving 12-month targets and as it quotes the high, the low and the median it gives all 3:

995p (Cavendish again, presumably)
383p
306p

The average of those 3 is 561p, so in the same sort of ballpark as the 638p Yahoo! average.

[1gw] 19/10/2024 09:09

If you search for "Nexn analyst targets" it's easy to get data which more-or-less supports the Yahoo US listing $9.50 target. e.g. Benzinga quotes a consensus of $9.42 based on 6 analyst ratings and identifies the high (RBC Capital, $11 as of 23rd August 2024), the low (Stifel, $6 as of 21st May) and the 3 most recent. It quotes the average of the 3 most recent as $9.50.

Note that Stifel increased their target to $7.50 on 25th August, so the Benzinga consensus hasn't included this whereas perhaps the Yahoo average has.

[1gw] 19/10/2024 09:01

Ragos - if you have a look at the "Analysis" tab you will see some more details. The difference will come down to a different set of analysts and different vintages of estimate.

You can see from the earnings estimates section that the UK listing has 3 analysts contributing whereas the US listing has 4 analysts.

The analysts' price target however seems to come from 6 analysts on the US listing, as they detail buy/sell/hold recommendations with 4 buys and 2 holds. They don't do this on the UK listing afaics.

The single number they quote on the summary tab is just the average analyst price target (assume over 12 months) of the analyst targets they have for each listing.

If you look at the "high" analyst estimates you can see they quote 10.06 from the UK. This presumably is the £10 Cavendish target. The "high" estimate on the US listing is $11, which is around £4.22/share equivalent (2 shares for 1 ADS). So the UK average target is presumably skewed by this high Cavendish estimate which is not included in the US set of estimates.

[ragos] 19/10/2024 08:25

Question for 1gw,
You are obviously familiar with the Yahoo finance website.
I look at both NEXN.L and NEXN, the London stock and the Nasdaq respectively.

There are two items on the share price page that puzzle me as I can't make any sense of it, no matter how much I manipulate them.
One shows the 1yr est. as £6.38
The other shows the 1yr est. as $9.50 assuming they refer to an ADS.

Do you know how they are arrived at? And what 1yr est means?
1yr from when?

I have tried emailing Yahoo with no luck.

Thanks.

[wheeze] 19/10/2024 07:21

Backing a shorter who has been covering in the background hence no RNS ?? Just idle conjecture

[tractorhead] 18/10/2024 20:32

FFS, are we having to buy Tosca out of their entire blooming position?

They are a pain in the A.

Why the frig are they having to sell down so much at the moment? I can only assume it is to do with a need for cash elsewhere in their fund?? Otherwise why sell now after all these years when we are so close to hitting it big?

Seems that all these buybacks are about covering new share issues for management and helping Tosca get out without crashing the price?

Urgh.

[1gw] 18/10/2024 19:44

Toscafund still selling then.

1.4m shares sold between 23rd August and 15th October after selling
1.9m shares between 25th March and 23rd August after selling
4.7m shares between 31st December and 25th March

A total of 8m shares sold in 10 months from my records. That certainly accounts for a good-sized chunk of the shares bought back, which I think amount to around 15m shares year-to-date (8.7m shares in 1H from 1H results, and I make it another 6.3m shares so far in 2H).

[tractorhead] 18/10/2024 14:24

2 steps forward 1.95 steps back. Slow progress!

[tapa7] 18/10/2024 11:31

Whites,

You're happy the share price popped up yesterday, that's great, we are also happy. But now that you have finished your Perignon, let's get back to talk fundamentals.

Undervalued business with zero leverage announces they'll burn through another 50m in buybacks despite losing market share to peers. Still posting results that are lower than our 2021 performance. Still having the worse CFO in the LSE.
That's another 50m we didn't put into our intellectual property and ecosystem, nevermind the 90m undrawn in credit. We need someone with thirst and hunger running this surplus of cash, giving us a competitive edge not a passive management.

[tractorhead] 18/10/2024 10:56

Sorry john09, you don't seem to be getting the message. GO AWAY. Do not post on here anymore. NOBODY is interested and your posts are pointless. So so so so boring. Grow up you idiot.

[john09] 18/10/2024 10:37

They are tragic goonies

[hammers8] 18/10/2024 09:17

Guessing by the recent posts Johnnyboy is back in gloating at his timing. Remind him of getting back at £6.22 in March 22 the very day it started the slide down to £1 plus. Bleated like a baby asking why the price wasn’t rising… then disappeared. Master stroke.

[tractorhead] 18/10/2024 09:10

john09 stop it. there are serious investors here. be a part of them if you want. but if all you do is pollute the board with nonsense it is super boring, childish and pointless. so please don't. grow up or go away.

[john09] 18/10/2024 08:41

Here’s another one . There’s a group of them they’ve been here 5+ years it’s truly hilarious

[tractorhead] 18/10/2024 08:39

john09, noboday and I mean nobody wants you here or wants you messing up this message board with your baby game posts. Please please please stop posting. Nobody is interested in your trades or your views. You are not trusted or liked. Sorry to say it. Just go elswhere.

[barkbooo] 18/10/2024 08:18

John09 - I don’t want to get involved with your silly games….all I will say is, you jump in on a momentum trade and always after most have made 100%+

All you do is reduce your odds and reduce any profit by tagging onto a winner when it’s already won….then jumping at the first sight of danger..

You are in the wrong game my friend.

A quick check last time round on this and other stocks you were involved in - wasn’t that inspiring.

Basically - you’re a baby!