Nexxen Share Discussion Threads

[tractorhead] 10/2/2024 13:17

No idea whether to trust Ofer. More important is can he deliver?

Often to build a business in a very competitive space you need to be a certain type of person. Ruthless, tough, thick skinned etc. Not necessarily all that nice! I don't want to be his friend. I want him to forge ahead with Nexxen. If he succeeds and makes a huge success of the company... and satifies the shareholders; I don't mind if he gets rich at the same time.

Time will tell.

[barkbooo] 10/2/2024 11:28

Tractorhead - do you trust Ofer..I don’t! Respected posters on here have shown their concern with his spin and greediness - if we all feel the same…chances are, the market does as well.

Great business - but should we be surprised?

[ragos] 09/2/2024 07:17

3085816 £6347345
buy back totals including this morning's rns.

R

[ragos] 08/2/2024 14:54

Tractor,
Thanks for the post. I did get your point.
There may well be a fire somewhere. I have been following peri, though not invested in it more of a pity, as they are neighbours in Israel to nexxen.

But unlike, tremor/nexxen, their management is exemplary having steered a very successful path. I would find it out of character for them not to be aware of the risks and to have robust plans in place to deal with them. Microsoft have picked an excellent partner, to dump them would not make sense.

Time will tell, I wish I had similar confidence in nexxen!

R

[tractorhead] 08/2/2024 08:21

Ragos,my point was about the Microsoft and Perion deal. That is the backbone of the Perion business model. If that is under threat... then Perion business will massively shrink. There is rarely smoke without fire. The market knows something?

This is not relevant for Nexxen. IN fact maybe positive for us?

Anyone know any more about Microsoft/Perion?

[ragos] 08/2/2024 08:13

Well, Tractor, they were down 20% last night.

Does not bode well for us.

R

[tractorhead] 07/2/2024 17:21

Perion and Microsoft Renew Their Strategic Partnership for Four Years back in Nov 2020?

Could that be coming to an end? Has a renewal already been accounced? By my calculations the old one will end Nov 2024?

Without that deal, Perion would come crashing back down to earth.

[tapa7] 07/2/2024 16:58

True that they didn't really have a pull back other then when they had the short report last year but still... they have 500m in cash, 180m in profit (double digit growth), no debt, all this for a 1.1b valuation?

I mean adtech in general is trading ridiculously cheap. Sometimes I wonder if the market simply thinks all these small DSP and SSP player are just going to cease to exist and all ad spend will go via the usual walled gardens..

The truth is that if these companies survive another 10 years printing $100s of millions as they do now, the transformation potential is enormous and the market could be totally wrong. That includes us (nexxen)

[tractorhead] 07/2/2024 13:23

Well if there is something good to be gleansed from Peri results... ad market seems to have improved? HOPEFULLY Nexxen will at least meet targets?

But market seems less excited about ad tech? Maybe Peri was due a pull back? Not sure it ever had a nasty one to date whereas most others have?

[tapa7] 07/2/2024 11:54

hxxps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1338940/000117891324000393/exhibit_99-1.htm

Well now I am concerned.

Peri presenting exceptional results + guiding 10% growth at midpoint and yet the market is punishing its multiple and contracting it further (-10% in pm).
The business is guiding 180m ebitda and the market is wanting to pay 7x that.

SNAP on the other end has investors paying 200x ebitda and is also -31% pm

I wonder what will happen to Nexxen.

[1gw] 07/2/2024 11:25

Mithaq over 25%. Can they do that without a tender? They've declared it as due to an acquisition of voting rights but I wonder if they've actually crossed the 25% threshold as a result of the buyback reducing the number of shares with voting rights.

TRMR post 23471 for some context.

[tapa7] 07/2/2024 09:53

Apparently the trial is not in March but September.
Can't wait for these monopolists to be forced to give in their market share to the smaller players like Nexxen.

Fun fact: Perion has earnings pre market I think...

[ragos] 06/2/2024 16:13

Tapa,
I am not used to people agreeing with me! LOL!

I must say you (our American cousins) have a way of using English that is different!

Because we have lost so much momentum/goodwill that this climb back is going to be hard, very hard. Why the delay in business numbers. When I was working, our management accounts kept up to date weekly. The monthly/quarterly/ results were never surprise, excuses were prepared in good time.

Getting back the lost clients, lost revenues is hard because the clients, once bitten are twice shy and do not like re-tracing.

Sadly, I am only looking for an escape route as I have lost all confidence as well as running out of time.

I have a question no one else has attempted to answer:- while I understand that ordinary pis don't matter, surely the big 3/4 owners must be kicking up such a fuss that we would see some dust?

I do hope you are correct and that 2024 will turn out well.

Thanks

R

[tapa7] 06/2/2024 15:55

I do agree with all your points Ragos, in fact I will add that Perion has outgrown us despite us enjoying the best in the industry margins (40%+) AND perion being subject to a short report last year which made the stock tank 30%+

Of course perion's codefuel and the partnership with msft/bing has helped perion to reach this market cap (although much of their growth is also ctv) but you'd think with our margins and cash printing capabilities we would be somewhere else... I mean at one point we had almost as much cash hoarding as our capitalization was worth. That's probably about the time I discovered Tremor..

After $240m spent in Amobee, shrinking profits/margins and 3 or 4 consecutive monumental misses in guidances given by the worse CFO in the industry (Thanks for nothing Sagi), I am not surprised that Nexxen has detached so much from the macro fundamentals which usually dictate 60% of the price movement throughout the year.

Every single ER was an opportunity to tank our stock 20%+...

It's going to take time to build confidence back, to show that we still are a money making business with $100m+ a year fcf, but I am very much hopeful that just by showing the market some shy growth (single digit) this year that we can still enjoy a significant multiple expansion just by taking the ride of those same macro fundamentals / index correlation that the books claim that account for 60% or more of our price movement.. so I expect nothing less at each ER than a big jump in the stock price followed by small increments in between the ERs now that we learnt (I hope) to give conservative guidances and overdeliver rather than overpromise.

I tell you one thing I hate about the way Nexxen treats investors, how is it possible that the Q4 ER covering sept-dec is scheduled for march? By the time we take a decision to invest in march we are basing that decision in data that is 6 months old.. sure they're not the only ones but I think they're the worse in adtech.

[ragos] 06/2/2024 15:17

Tapa,
I get it from a macro point of view.
But, parochially, how is nexxen business?
We have so little info.
By the way, peri has gone from being much smaller than tremor/nexxen to much larger in a VERY short time, the time it took tremor to dive.
( Nexxen .37B vs peri 1.38B as of this afternoon )

We were small before but we appear to have miniscule! I have not checked but I do think we are in the bottom 2 to3% of the sector!

R

[tapa7] 06/2/2024 12:42

I wouldn't call it strong sellers. We have such low volume that our price action fluctuates massively and can rebound a -5% in a matter of minutes.

Up until this morning we actually had the best performance relative to our peers and the index. To put it into perspective, over the last 5 days:

PERI -4.75%
TTD -5.25%
MGNI -7.79%
PUBM -7.21%

Before this morning and for the same period we were just -1.9%. After today's drop (which can rebound anytime) we now fit in with our peers.

Another thing that helps contextualize our price action atm is that over the last 13 sessions the Russel has managed 10 RED SESSIONS and yet we are stable at 200gbx.
It's a huge pullback as the market realised the cuts aren't yet coming in March and it reversed the small cap hype of November .

IMO nothing to worry about because the cuts will eventually come in this year and that + solid financials showing modest growth should = a good rally for us.

[ragos] 06/2/2024 12:31

Tractor,
You have been around almost as long as I have!
We have seen all this before.

What a company needs to do is deliver promised results on time, increase revenue and profits quarter after quarter.
All else including sp, flows from that.

Miss your own forecast, then well suffer!

waiting patiently for March numbers.

R

[tractorhead] 06/2/2024 11:40

So depressing that there seems to be strong sellers out there. Despite the buyback, the price stuggles to hold.

Could it be hedge fund shorters messing around? The shareholder base I thought was pretty solid.

[loafofbread] 06/2/2024 08:18

I wonder when someone will notice that they have the wrong date on the share buyback RNS.

Unbelievable that such simple mistakes still happen with this top notch company!

[sk02457] 05/2/2024 14:55

Back on 1/2/2023 there were 144,091,694 issued, 1 year later and after buying back
Around 2.5 million there are 143,897,699 which is only around 200k difference. I guess the directors options make up the difference ?

[tractorhead] 05/2/2024 13:17

Hope you are right Tapa7. Really hope.

[tapa7] 05/2/2024 13:01

This time we have a very soft guidance on our side tractorhead.

Should be easy to beat it for a change.

[tractorhead] 05/2/2024 09:01

That new website has really fired up the market... not.

When are we going to see some improvement here? I guess its down to the numbers so we need to wait till next trading update. Will we have a Meta moment?

[ragos] 04/2/2024 20:35

gadgie,
LOL! I can see google and meta quaking in their boots!

Wait for ofer to present the numbers!

R

[gadgie2] 04/2/2024 18:42

Q4 news letter


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