Nexxen Share Discussion Threads

[tapa7] 29/1/2024 16:29

3 things I want to say

1. For those concerned about US ad budgets for the year of 2024, the current expectation is that they will decelerate but nonetheless will increase between 4-7% YoY in 2024. The caveat to that is that search ads are expected to decrease and CTV and the likes are expected to make up for the difference. It will be interesting to see how this plays out since we reported in Q3 that search is now 30% of our revenues vs the <10% it used to be. I am slightly concerned about this and google switching off cookies.

You can consult public available forecasts for the sector, some sources would be GroupM, Dentsu, Magna

2. For those wondering about Nexxen's performance this year, there's a big hope and a sentiment* that the fed will start cutting rates in Q2/Q3 and that will trigger big rallies in stocks like Nexxen. This will happen regardless of fundamentals and regardless of how well the economy is doing. We have seen the initiation of that rally in the November's FED minutes and CPI numbers, and the bullish small cap sentiment may get exacerbated further in Q1 and Q2 as the market anticipates the loosening of the neck rope many companies feel. These companies will be restructuring debt the second the fed cuts rates and that will be very bullish.

*This theory assumes we will have no inflation come back, no new wars and no other adverse macro economical events through the year.


3. Lastly and most importantly, keep an eye for Google adtech case which kicks in in March. 2024 and 2025 will be the years known for HUGE, HUMONGOUS antitrust rullings.

The first verdict will come this year and will prove whether Google is guilty or not from their search monopoly and this will undoubtedly have huge repercussions in the whole search ecosystem - if the ruling is not favorable to google everyone should immediately start looking at Perion. They run all microsofts / bings display ads through a company named codefuel and if google can no longer pay apple and the likes to be the default search browser then there's a remote chance bing/msft can take advantadge of it and if display revenue and market share shifts even just 250bps to Bing then perion is making hundreads of millions.

The second verdict is likely not to come till end of year or 2025 at all but the ins and outs of the case against google's adtech monopoly should be known all throughout the year and anything detrimental to google is extremely positive for Nexxen. Again I remind everyone that if Google is forced to divest their SSP (as an example) then there's a massive opportunity for the likes of Nexxen and Magnite to showcase their tech stack to Google's previous customers and try to steal them as whatever new SSP company Google will set up can no longer provide the same take rates as they used to do when they were "subsidised" by their parent Google and thus they will have to seriously compete with everyone else.

To summarise
Adtech monopoly antitrust (department of justice is the prosecuter) starts in March
Search antitrust (same prosecutor) started in October 2023, verdict should come this year. After appeals (if google loses) it will drag to 2025 or 2026 but big strategic (and speculative) investments can already be done this year.

[digitalis] 29/1/2024 12:55

Talking of lining pockets our gaffa is keeping up the good work…weldone ofer

[tractorhead] 26/1/2024 17:21

Finished down 0.0000072% !!

[ragos] 26/1/2024 16:14

I do get your frustration.
You raise several points.
I will address some of the in no particular order!

The wider economy is in the lap of the gods and politicians..anything goes!
Advertisers! When I worked for an fmcg, one of the golden management rule was cut advert budgets to protect profit was the first step but it was self limiting as advertising "WEIGHT" was critical to maintain. So it never dropped too far as the cost of rebuild was astronomic.

Full stack, Who knows? specialisation might be best eg ttd. But I have not seen ANY benefit on the bottom line for our money. If March numbers are not SPECTACULAR, then we have been had.... again!

Court case? Don't think much of them....they only cost everyone money until they go broke and then move on to the next case! So, no idea, but not expecting much.

Share price? If you keep adding 4m shares every quarter and execute loss making buy backs (anyone care to disagree that our treasury shares have a higher average than the sp?), what else can you expect? If you want to distribute balance sheet cash and can't increase earnings/share, then give the shareholders a choice via a divi. They can buy more shares or make better decisions.

My longest post to date. calls for a drink.

Take my rant with a bag (not a pinch!) of salt!
(won't re-read it as I might change my mind)

R

[tractorhead] 26/1/2024 15:50

Ragos, my worry is about the wide economy in general. Seems to be limping along at best. Will advertisers have recommenced their ad spend yet?

Are you uncertain even longer term? Do you not have faith in the full stack offering and the VIDAA connection?

What do you think resolution of court case will bring?

Still can't understand why shareprice does not move. WTF is selling??? Is it that the buyback is consistently counter balanced by new share issues for management incentive schemes? The whole point of a buyback is to REDUCE freefloat and shares in issue surely?

Frustrated.

[ragos] 26/1/2024 14:47

gadgie,
I have the same need but, let's face it, it is a very long shot!
The numbers in March will be critical in view of all the news items.

R

[gadgie2] 26/1/2024 11:59

agreed I need £6 come on man

[ragos] 26/1/2024 10:09

Not all of us are in a position to move on..... sadly.


R

[takeiteasy] 26/1/2024 09:23

Having held through thick and thin there are now a number of other interesting recovery stocks and I will make a decision this next week over whether to move on..as you say Ragos if you disagree with both the management philosophy you can live with it if the performance is there ....

[ragos] 26/1/2024 09:15

It is simple.
ofer & co are lining their pockets and sod the rest of you.
The mechanism is : regularly, through a block listing, allocate a block 0f 4million shares (at our loss). Issue it to ofer's mates as part of incentive plan.

Then sell enough to cover their tax etc

Bingo you have new shares entering the market for buybacks (instead of divis) using balance sheet cash creating the liquidity required.

rinse and repeat.

R

[tsmith2] 24/1/2024 07:56

either way, buying certainly helps

[upsondowns] 24/1/2024 07:06

No and not with that average price. Somebody else loading up and a TR1 on its way?

[tsmith2] 24/1/2024 07:02

Doesn't look like it

[tsmith2] 23/1/2024 21:03

Could well be

[upsondowns] 23/1/2024 18:11

Tomorrow's RNS for 118,000 bought at 215?

[tsmith2] 23/1/2024 18:00

Some decent buys reported after the bell

[ragos] 23/1/2024 14:11

holger,
Nothing will happen, other than more wars, until Q4/YE results in March.
We will the find out if Mr. "basically" Ofer has been lying through his teeth, basically.

How I hate that word now, it used to be just basically........


I'll stop my rant now.


R

[holgerbb] 23/1/2024 13:27

Nexxen raised to USD 6.5 by Needham

[holgerbb] 22/1/2024 16:10

The company also pointed to the Super Bowl, for which TelevisaUnivision will handle the Spanish-language broadcast for the first time, as a point of strength in its ad deals. The Big Game brought in the highest CPMs ever for TelevisaUnivision217;s sports sales team, with the company claiming dollar amounts were double previous pricing rates from Spanish-language Super Bowl broadcasts. Soccer was also a top seller for the company, which carries Mexican league Liga MX and the upcoming 2024 Copa America tournament.

[gadgie2] 20/1/2024 18:24

One Love Barky :

The local apps are the most important for the local consumers in every single market
People are cutting the cord only when the local broadcasters launch their OTT apps
Our growth in consumption is driven by more users in more and more countries cutting the cord
I believe within three years streaming will become the only solution on the big screen !

[holgerbb] 20/1/2024 17:56

We're excited to announce that we agreed with ARD and France TV to release the ARTE application on all VIDAA-powered devices globally. The app provides access to some of the world's premier documentaries.